Garrett Gainey

P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 27 LHP 6'1" / 200 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	A+TB	1	0	2	0.00	2.10	16.7%	0.0%	—	K 16.7% · BB 0.0% · FIP 1.69
2025	25	MIX4 levels	34	12	88	3.39	2.86	23.3%	6.1%	—	K 17.6% · BB 6.0% · FIP 3.56
2026	26	A+TB	28	10	70	5.56	4.36	24.0%	7.4%	—	K 18.5% · BB 8.5% · FIP 5.47
2027PROJ	27	MLBTB	67	0	70	4.80	4.80	17.4%	7.4%	-0.2
2028PROJ37% MLB	28	MLBTB	24	0	25	4.80	4.83	17.9%	7.7%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	29	MLBTB	34	0	36	4.86	4.92	18.0%	8.1%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control60Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsAaron Rozek (age 27) · Matt Tracy (age 27) · Dan Meyer (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.80

FIP4.80

K%17.4%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	1	0	2	6	1	0	0	0%	2.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.69	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	1	0	2	6	1	0	0	0%	2.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.69	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	1	0	2	6	1	0	0	0%	2.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	2.10	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	34	12	88	347	81	21	6	35%	2.6	17.6%	6.0%	11.6%	2.2%	3.39	3.56	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	34	12	88	347	81	21	6	35%	2.6	17.6%	6.0%	11.6%	2.2%	3.39	3.56	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	34	12	88	347	81	21	6	35%	2.6	23.3%	6.1%	17.3%	1.7%	3.39	2.86	—
2026	26	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	28	10	70	312	75	23	13	36%	2.5	18.5%	8.5%	10.0%	5.2%	5.56	5.47	—
2026	26	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	28	10	70	312	75	23	13	36%	2.5	18.5%	8.5%	10.0%	5.2%	5.56	5.47	—
2026	26	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	28	10	70	312	75	23	13	36%	2.5	24.0%	7.4%	16.7%	4.2%	5.56	4.36	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	TB	67	0	70	296	51	22	10	0%	1.0	17.4%	7.4%	10.0%	3.4%	4.80	4.80	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	TB	65	0	68	287	51	22	10	0%	1.0	17.9%	7.7%	10.1%	3.4%	4.80	4.83	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	TB	62	0	65	274	49	22	10	0%	1.0	18.0%	8.1%	10.0%	3.5%	4.86	4.92	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	TB	24	0	25	106	19	8	4	0%	1.0	17.9%	7.7%	10.1%	3.4%	4.80	4.83	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	TB	34	0	36	152	27	12	5	0%	1.1	18.0%	8.1%	10.0%	3.5%	4.86	4.92	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	0	61	256	46	20	9	0%	1.0	18.0%	7.9%	10.0%	3.5%	4.84	4.51	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	152	66	30	0%	1.0	18.0%	7.9%	10.0%	3.5%	4.84	4.51	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		63	22	159	665	120	47	24	35%	2.5	18.0%	7.1%	10.9%	3.6%	4.29	4.44	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	28	200	835	151	59	30	35%	2.5	18.0%	7.1%	10.9%	3.6%	4.29	4.44	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Garrett Gainey (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	17.4%	7.4%	3.4%	—	4.87	17.9%	10.1%	133	+0.07	—	—	—
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.34	16.7%	9.5%	356	-0.53	3.68	579	77
Matt Tracy L 2016 · 3.89 FIP	27	SW	3.89	13.8%	8.3%	1.7%	.328	4.22	15.3%	5.5%	129	+0.33	3.24	298	76
Dan Meyer L 2008 · 5.66 FIP	27	SW	5.66	15.2%	10.6%	4.5%	.315	3.73	23.1%	15.2%	58	-1.93	3.73	112	75
Greg Nappo L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	27	SU	5.09	17.2%	10.3%	3.9%	.285	6.26	12.3%	-0.3%	11	+1.17	3.37	144	74
Edgar Olmos L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	27	SW	3.64	18.9%	9.7%	1.7%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	203	74
Jordan Carr L 2024 · 4.42 FIP	27	SW	4.42	13.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.295	6.61	11.8%	-1.7%	47	+2.19	3.49	269	73
Eric Jokisch L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	27	SW	4.64	12.4%	9.6%	2.5%	.330	3.93	15.2%	7.6%	283	-0.71	3.78	427	73
Everett Teaford L 2011 · 5.47 FIP	27	SU	5.47	16.0%	8.0%	4.9%	.224	5.47	13.3%	5.3%	61	+0.00	4.42	208	73
Carson Teel L 2022 · 4.26 FIP	26	SU	4.26	17.7%	7.1%	3.2%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	248	72
Chris Narveson L 2009 · 4.01 FIP	27	SW	4.01	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.277	4.00	18.5%	10.0%	329	-0.01	4.00	625	72
Ryan Kellogg L 2021 · 4.33 FIP	27	SW	4.33	12.3%	5.2%	2.9%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	446	71
Jimmy Reyes L 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SU	3.82	14.6%	6.2%	2.1%	.313	4.92	13.8%	5.8%	66	+1.10	3.02	200	71
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	71
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	71
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	71
Mike Matthews L 2001 · 4.09 FIP	27	SW	4.09	19.6%	7.9%	3.0%	.246	4.55	15.0%	4.6%	140	+0.46	3.64	239	71
Jose Molina L 2016 · 4.17 FIP	25	SW	4.17	14.4%	8.9%	2.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	144	70
Pat Misch L 2009 · 5.15 FIP	27	SW	5.15	8.5%	7.4%	3.3%	.271	3.50	14.5%	12.6%	38	-1.65	3.50	265	70
Anthony Veneziano L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	26	SW	4.33	17.6%	9.0%	2.9%	.307	4.72	17.3%	8.0%	87	+0.39	4.18	539	70
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	17.8%	7.7%	1.33	4.82
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Ricky Stone ('07)	1.3	64	15.2%	8.0%	1.55	4.68
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*