Dylan Carey

SS St. Lucie Mets

Age 24 R/R A H -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	23	ANYM	75	.152/.253/.258	2	3	5	—	.118/.200/.176
2027PROJ0% MLB	24	MLBNYM	200	.202/.266/.306	4	4	62	0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	25	MLBNYM	48	.199/.264/.304	1	1	64	-0.0
2029PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBNYM	113	.201/.266/.310	2	2	67	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Speed78

Chase%47

K%36

Z-Con%34

Max EV32

BB%29

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsMatt Gorski (age 24) · Connor Blair (age 24) · Conor Bierfeldt (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 93 proj PA

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .264 / .304

PA93

HR2

K%33

BB%6

ISO104

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	23	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	75	66	10	1	0	2	6	21	3	3	1	152	253	258	511	106	186	28	8	242	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	23	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	75	68	8	1	0	1	4	29	3	3	1	118	200	176	376	59	163	39	5	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	75	68	8	1	0	1	4	29	3	3	1	118	200	176	376	59	184	39	5	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	—	75	66	10	1	0	2	6	21	3	3	1	152	253	258	511	106	186	28	8	242	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	75	68	8	1	0	1	4	29	3	3	1	118	200	176	376	59	163	39	5	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	23	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	75	68	8	1	0	1	4	29	3	3	1	118	200	176	376	59	163	39	5	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYM	0%	200	182	37	6	1	4	13	65	3	4	1	202	266	306	572	104	289	32	6	259	62	-9	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYM	30%	159	145	30	5	1	3	10	51	3	3	1	205	269	313	582	108	289	32	6	263	64	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYM	44%	257	234	48	8	1	5	17	81	4	5	1	207	272	318	590	111	289	32	7	267	67	-10	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYM	49%	313	284	60	10	2	6	21	98	5	5	1	208	273	320	593	112	289	31	7	268	68	-12	+1	+0	+3	+7	-0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYM	51%	350	318	67	11	2	7	24	109	5	5	1	208	274	320	594	112	288	31	7	268	68	-13	+1	-1	+4	+8	-0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYM	51%	365	332	69	11	2	7	25	113	5	4	1	208	273	319	592	111	287	31	7	268	67	-14	+0	-1	+4	+8	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYM	30%	48	44	8	1	0	1	3	15	1	1	0	199	264	304	568	106	280	31	6	258	64	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYM	44%	113	103	21	3	1	2	7	36	2	2	0	201	266	310	576	109	280	32	6	261	67	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYM	49%	153	140	28	4	1	3	10	48	2	3	1	202	268	312	580	110	280	31	7	263	68	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYM	51%	180	163	33	5	1	4	12	56	3	2	1	202	268	312	580	110	279	31	7	263	68	-7	+0	-0	+2	+4	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYM	51%	188	170	34	5	1	4	13	58	3	2	1	202	268	310	578	109	278	31	7	262	67	-7	+0	-1	+2	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	682	620	124	18	4	14	45	213	11	10	3	200	266	310	576	110	277	31	7	262	64	-27	+1	-1	+7	+15	-0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	118	17	4	13	43	203	10	10	3	200	266	308	573	108	277	31	7	262	64	-25	+1	-1	+7	+14	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	1612	1466	300	49	9	31	107	511	27	27	6	205	271	314	585	109	289	32	7	263	64	-61	+3	-2	+16	+33	-1.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	121	20	4	12	43	206	11	11	2	205	271	313	584	108	290	32	7	263	64	-26	+1	-1	+7	+14	-0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Chuck Cottier'59-'69 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,770 PA	2.7	1,770	19	28	219*	280*	330*	+7	+14	0.5	0.9
/162	664	7	11	+2.7	+5.3	0.2	pk7: 1
#4Jerry Kindall'56-'65 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,261 PA	3.4	2,261	44	17	212*	265*	339*	+9	+21	-0.7	0.4
/162	664	13	5	+2.7	+6.3	-0.2	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.2	776	15	12	208	270	319	+8	+9	0.0	0.0
/162	664	13	10	+7.1	+7.7	0.0	pk7: 0
#5David Howard'91-'99 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	11	23	220*	280*	301*	+10	+23	-1.6	-0.8
/162	664	4	9	+3.7	+8.5	-0.6	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dylan Carey (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	200/264/304	103	289	2	2	33%	6%	62	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Matt Gorski 2022 · A	24	36→34	46→55	54→55	35	183/236/304	120	288	14	16	40%	6%	51	-2.3	199/250/359	160	279	20	20	35%	6%	69	-0.9	190/239/355	165	267	20	14	36%	6%	62	-0.6
✕Connor Blair 2022 · A	24	37	39→45	48→45	45	178/254/257	79	269	6	11	34%	9%	47	-2.5	194/282/305	111	306	12	8	37%	10%	69	-0.9	148/263/256	108	232	14	5	39%	12%	50	-0.8
✕Conor Bierfeldt 2015 · A	24	33→30	45→50	49→30	38	177/229/300	123	245	12	4	33%	6%	47	-2.5	186/243/329	143	251	16	3	32%	6%	59	-1.6	174/233/324	150	226	17	1	31%	6%	52	-1.5
✕Josh Richmond 2013 · A	24	34→40	41→45	48→45	36	175/225/277	101	253	8	8	34%	5%	40	-3.1	200/253/324	124	279	11	8	31%	5%	61	-1.5	202/257/338	136	275	13	7	30%	5%	63	-0.8
✕Michael O'Neill 2016 · A	24	39→41	40→45	50→55	36	194/242/283	89	278	8	18	32%	5%	48	-2.5	208/256/311	103	300	9	18	32%	5%	59	-1.6	208/259/316	108	298	10	22	32%	5%	59	-1.2
✕David Harris 2016 · A	24	40	41→45	47→50	32	197/237/297	100	290	9	9	35%	3%	49	-2.4	202/248/298	96	308	8	10	35%	5%	53	-2.1	165/205/236	71	268	4	10	39%	3%	20	-0.8
✕Demi Orimoloye 2021 · A	24	38	42→45	52→55	34	190/241/291	102	298	10	16	38%	5%	49	-2.4	208/244/310	102	331	9	15	38%	4%	54	-2.0	199/223/299	101	316	9	18	39%	3%	39	-1.5
✕Estee Harris 2008 · A	23	38→32	40→50	49→50	36	184/237/276	92	297	8	13	39%	6%	45	-2.7	218/265/340	122	373	12	12	42%	5%	70	-0.9	212/253/348	137	372	14	14	45%	4%	63	-0.4
✕Yusuf Carter 2008 · A	23	35→33	46→50	48→50	30	185/217/311	125	294	15	9	42%	4%	45	-2.7	214/255/357	143	305	17	10	34%	5%	70	-0.9	217/262/367	149	293	19	10	32%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Neil Medchill 2011 · A	24	35→28	43→45	44→45	34	175/233/280	105	299	12	7	44%	6%	45	-2.7	195/254/324	129	320	15	7	41%	7%	62	-1.4	194/253/324	129	310	16	5	41%	7%	59	-0.7
✕Kenny Diekroeger 2015 · A	24	37	39→40	46→45	35	186/225/261	75	269	8	8	33%	4%	36	-3.4	217/265/297	80	286	6	10	25%	5%	59	-1.7	227/275/287	59	290	4	11	22%	5%	58	-0.8
✕Matt Pita 2021 · A	24	38	37→50	49→55	36	183/235/261	77	267	3	10	31%	4%	40	-3.1	200/260/334	134	278	14	16	32%	5%	68	-1.0	183/246/324	141	255	15	27	33%	5%	57	-0.6
✕Jacob Schrader 2014 · A	23	36→35	44→50	50→30	36	186/241/304	118	280	12	5	37%	6%	53	-2.1	208/251/343	135	297	15	3	34%	4%	65	-1.2	202/243/337	135	285	15	2	34%	4%	58	-1.1
✕Michael Suiter 2016 · A	24	40→38	37→40	49→50	38	194/244/266	72	257	5	12	26%	4%	45	-2.7	212/266/304	92	291	9	10	29%	5%	61	-1.5	213/272/311	97	295	12	8	30%	6%	63	-0.5
✕Stefan Sabol 2015 · A	23	33→42	43→45	50	42	172/242/285	113	259	10	12	36%	8%	49	-2.4	197/266/293	96	314	8	9	37%	8%	59	-1.6	194/268/279	84	313	7	7	37%	9%	55	-1.2
✕Ben Johnson 2017 · A	23	36→30	40→50	43→45	32	175/226/267	92	302	7	6	42%	5%	38	-3.2	183/235/265	82	342	7	12	45%	5%	41	-3.0	125/178/160	34	262	5	26	51%	4%	-8	-1.5
✕Justin Miller 2013 · A	24	39→36	42→45	50	39	195/248/298	103	266	9	9	30%	5%	53	-2.1	194/242/298	104	271	9	11	30%	5%	51	-2.3	178/222/277	99	246	9	12	31%	5%	36	-1.3
✕Seth Harrison 2016 · A	24	38→42	37→40	46→50	35	183/228/259	75	278	5	14	35%	4%	36	-3.3	204/252/295	91	284	7	12	29%	5%	54	-2.0	202/251/296	94	271	7	12	27%	5%	51	-1.7
✕Ryan Aguilar 2019 · A	24	35→40	39→45	51→50	40	173/237/256	83	269	6	6	36%	8%	40	-3.1	183/260/276	93	303	9	9	39%	8%	54	-2.0	181/274/286	106	291	12	12	39%	10%	59	-1.1
✕James Simmons 2010 · A	24	41	39→50	53→55	34	194/245/279	85	321	6	16	40%	6%	47	-2.5	205/260/337	132	346	15	14	42%	6%	68	-1.0	196/254/350	155	346	21	18	47%	6%	65	-0.5

Dylan Carey

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps