Aaron Munson

P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 25 RHP 5'10" / 195 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	42	53	4.78	2.83	28.6%	13.4%	—	K 21.5% · BB 15.6% · FIP 3.86
2025	23	A+TOR	30	48	2.81	2.56	19.5%	8.8%	—	K 15.0% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.11
2026	24	MIX2 levels	42	68	4.26	3.53	23.8%	9.1%	—	K 17.6% · BB 9.0% · FIP 4.54
2027PROJ	25	MLBTOR	67	70	5.09	5.09	15.8%	11.0%	-0.4
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBTOR	30	31	4.99	4.97	17.0%	10.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBTOR	42	44	4.95	4.96	17.5%	10.7%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control45Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsD.J. Carrasco (age 26) · Juan Paniagua (age 25) · Vinnie Chulk (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

K%15.8%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%4.8%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	1	9	34	5	2	0	20%	1.8	14.7%	5.9%	8.8%	0.0%	1.00	2.60	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	1	9	34	5	2	0	20%	1.8	14.7%	5.9%	8.8%	0.0%	1.00	2.66	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	53	238	68	32	2	0%	1.3	21.5%	15.6%	5.8%	1.1%	4.78	3.86	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	53	238	68	32	2	0%	1.3	21.5%	15.6%	5.8%	1.1%	4.78	3.86	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	53	238	68	32	2	0%	1.3	28.6%	13.4%	15.1%	0.8%	4.78	2.83	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	30	0	48	205	40	18	0	0%	1.6	15.0%	10.1%	4.9%	0.0%	2.81	3.11	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	30	0	48	205	40	18	0	0%	1.6	15.0%	10.1%	4.9%	0.0%	2.81	3.11	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	30	0	48	205	40	18	0	0%	1.6	19.5%	8.8%	10.7%	0.0%	2.81	2.56	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	68	307	73	28	7	0%	1.6	17.6%	9.0%	8.6%	3.3%	4.26	4.54	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	68	307	73	28	7	0%	1.6	17.6%	9.0%	8.6%	3.3%	4.26	4.54	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	68	307	73	28	7	0%	1.6	23.8%	9.1%	14.7%	2.3%	4.26	3.53	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TOR	67	0	70	296	47	32	8	0%	1.0	15.8%	11.0%	4.8%	2.8%	5.09	5.09	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TOR	67	0	70	296	50	32	8	0%	1.0	17.0%	10.8%	6.3%	2.9%	4.99	4.97	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	TOR	66	0	69	291	51	31	8	0%	1.0	17.5%	10.7%	6.8%	2.9%	4.95	4.96	-0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	TOR	64	0	67	282	50	30	9	0%	1.0	17.7%	10.8%	6.9%	3.0%	4.97	5.01	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	TOR	61	0	64	270	47	30	9	0%	1.0	17.6%	11.0%	6.6%	3.2%	5.06	5.12	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	TOR	30	0	31	131	22	14	4	0%	1.0	17.0%	10.8%	6.3%	2.9%	4.99	4.97	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	TOR	42	0	44	186	32	20	5	0%	1.0	17.5%	10.7%	6.8%	2.9%	4.95	4.96	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	TOR	49	0	51	215	38	23	6	0%	1.0	17.7%	10.8%	6.9%	3.0%	4.97	5.01	-0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	TOR	50	0	52	220	39	24	7	0%	1.0	17.6%	11.0%	6.6%	3.2%	5.06	5.12	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	177	748	131	81	22	0%	1.0	17.5%	10.8%	6.7%	3.0%	5.00	4.64	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	148	91	25	0%	1.1	17.5%	10.8%	6.7%	3.0%	5.00	4.64	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		119	1	177	784	141	87	13	1%	1.5	18.0%	11.1%	6.8%	1.6%	3.86	3.88	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	1	200	884	159	99	14	1%	1.5	18.0%	11.1%	6.8%	1.6%	3.86	3.88	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Munson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	15.8%	11.0%	2.8%	—	4.98	17.4%	6.6%	206	-0.11	—	—	—
D.J. Carrasco R 2003 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	16.1%	10.1%	2.2%	.291	4.66	10.5%	1.4%	150	+0.39	3.23	490	92
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	92
Vinnie Chulk R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	17.7%	10.5%	2.4%	.308	3.95	16.9%	9.6%	171	-0.31	2.97	271	91
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	25	SU	4.59	15.1%	10.4%	2.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	218	90
Raul Fernandez R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	14.2%	9.4%	1.7%	.285	4.79	16.1%	5.0%	103	+0.76	4.03	165	89
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	89
Alex Palsha R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	25	SU	3.95	16.0%	10.9%	1.5%	.293	3.40	12.8%	1.8%	17	-0.55	3.40	134	89
David Goforth R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	17.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.60	3.98	256	89
Junior Lopez R 2016 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	15.7%	9.9%	1.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	128	88
Rhiner Cruz R 2012 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	18.2%	11.5%	3.2%	.335	4.81	10.2%	-1.0%	21	+0.01	3.21	127	88
El'Hajj Muhammad R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	25	SU	4.58	13.6%	10.0%	2.5%	.285	5.01	7.1%	-2.5%	11	+0.43	4.58	113	88
Pedro Echemendia R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	25	SU	4.79	15.0%	8.0%	3.5%	.286	4.31	11.0%	5.9%	72	-0.48	4.31	141	88
Scott Oberg R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	17.0%	11.2%	3.4%	.273	2.92	22.8%	15.6%	188	-2.04	2.54	302	87
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	86
Jonathan Brand R 2024 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	13.6%	10.6%	2.4%	.284	4.87	22.0%	11.9%	115	+0.26	3.34	198	86
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	86
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.49	14.0%	6.3%	162	+0.26	3.81	291	85
Bryan Morris R 2013 · 4.78 FIP	26	SU	4.78	13.7%	8.5%	3.2%	.243	3.90	17.7%	9.2%	145	-0.88	3.48	231	85
Hunter McMahon R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	16.5%	8.0%	2.8%	.301	5.84	5.7%	1.8%	14	+1.60	2.23	174	85
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	17.1%	10.8%	1.14	5.01
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Tom Martin ('07)	1.6	53	15.8%	10.1%	1.02	4.92
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*