Edgar Lugo — OGILVIE

Edgar LugoSS DSL Tigers 1

Age 21 S/R 5'9" / 170 lbs ROK HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION89 act + 59 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .287 / .331

PA59

HR1

K%24

BB%7

BABIP280

ISO110

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT60

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE20

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	19	ROK	2 teams	—	164	147	29	9	1	3	14	43	2	5	2	197	276	333	609	136	257	26	9	256	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	2 teams	—	164	141	36	11	1	3	20	31	2	5	2	255	356	411	767	156	308	19	12	344	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	2 teams	—	278	253	65	10	0	1	11	48	4	11	8	257	299	308	607	51	311	17	4	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	2 teams	—	278	246	69	11	0	1	17	38	4	11	8	280	336	337	673	57	325	14	6	297	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	ROK	DET	—	89	79	11	4	0	1	7	17	3	6	3	139	236	228	464	89	164	19	8	206	16	-8	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.5
YTD	21	ROK	DET	—	89	75	15	6	0	1	11	12	3	6	3	200	326	320	646	120	226	13	12	302	90	-1	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.2
ROS	21	ROK	DET	0%	59	54	12	3	0	1	4	14	1	2	1	221	287	331	618	110	270	24	7	259	56	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
ROS	21	MLB	DET	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		266	—	—	243	44	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	21	ROK	DET	—	89	80	11	4	0	1	7	17	3	6	3	138	236	225	461	87	161	19	8	206	16	-8	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.5
TOT	21	ROK	DET	—	148	133	23	7	0	2	11	31	4	8	4	172	256	270	526	97	209	21	7	227	32	-11	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	DET	34%	205	187	41	9	1	3	13	48	3	4	1	219	281	326	607	107	274	23	6	268	64	-8	+0	+0	+2	+6	-0.0
2028	23	MLB	DET	48%	317	289	65	14	2	5	21	74	4	6	2	225	287	339	626	114	276	23	7	276	69	-11	+0	+0	+3	+9	0.2
2029	24	MLB	DET	53%	396	362	81	17	2	7	26	92	5	8	3	224	285	340	625	116	278	23	7	281	73	-12	+0	+0	+4	+11	0.4
2030	25	MLB	DET	55%	442	403	90	19	2	8	30	102	6	8	3	223	287	340	627	117	278	23	7	283	75	-12	+0	+0	+5	+13	0.5
2031	26	MLB	DET	56%	469	428	96	20	2	9	32	108	6	9	3	224	288	343	631	119	278	23	7	284	76	-13	+1	+0	+5	+13	0.6
2032	27	MLB	DET	55%	481	438	98	21	2	9	33	111	7	9	3	224	289	342	631	119	278	23	7	284	76	-13	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.6
2033	28	MLB	DET	55%	484	440	99	21	2	9	34	112	7	9	3	225	291	343	634	118	278	23	7	283	75	-14	+1	-1	+5	+14	0.5
2034	29	MLB	DET	53%	480	437	96	20	2	8	34	113	6	9	3	220	285	330	615	110	277	24	7	282	74	-14	+1	-1	+5	+14	0.4
2027	22	MLB	DET	34%	70	65	13	3	0	1	4	16	1	1	0	200	257	292	549	92	269	23	6	254	53	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	DET	48%	154	141	30	6	1	2	10	36	2	3	1	213	275	312	587	99	271	23	6	262	58	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2029	24	MLB	DET	53%	209	190	42	9	1	3	14	48	3	4	1	221	285	326	611	105	273	23	7	266	62	-9	+0	+0	+2	+6	-0.0
2030	25	MLB	DET	55%	242	221	48	10	1	4	16	56	3	5	2	217	279	326	605	109	274	23	7	269	64	-10	+0	+0	+3	+7	-0.0
2031	26	MLB	DET	56%	261	237	53	11	1	5	18	60	4	5	2	224	290	342	631	118	273	23	7	269	64	-11	+0	+0	+3	+7	-0.0
2032	27	MLB	DET	55%	265	241	53	11	1	5	18	61	4	5	2	220	285	336	621	116	273	23	7	269	64	-11	+0	+0	+3	+8	-0.0
2033	28	MLB	DET	55%	265	240	53	11	1	5	19	62	4	5	2	221	289	338	626	117	273	23	7	269	64	-11	+0	-0	+3	+8	-0.1
2034	29	MLB	DET	53%	256	233	51	11	1	4	18	60	3	5	2	219	283	326	610	107	273	23	7	267	63	-11	+0	-1	+3	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1722	1569	343	72	7	29	117	399	24	33	12	219	283	329	612	110	274	23	7	267	63	-73	+2	-1	+18	+49	-0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	130	27	3	11	44	151	9	12	5	220	284	331	615	111	275	23	7	267	63	-27	+0	-0	+7	+18	-0.2
Career	—			—	3775	3438	772	163	16	63	252	865	51	80	32	225	287	336	624	112	281	23	7	279	72	-121	+3	-2	+40	+107	2.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	133	28	3	11	43	149	9	14	6	225	287	338	625	113	280	23	7	279	72	-21	+0	-0	+7	+18	0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	19	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	142	121	33	11	1	3	18	25	2	5	2	273	376	455	830	182	323	18	13	368	140	+6	+0	—	—	+4	1.1
2024	19	INTL	Mayos de Navojoa	—	22	20	3	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	150	227	150	377		214	27	9	187	1	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2025	20	ROK	DSL Tigers 2	—	152	135	44	7	0	1	9	18	4	8	5	326	383	400	783	74	364	12	6	348	124	+4	-0	—	—	+4	0.8
2025	20	INTL	Tucson Baseball Team	—	126	111	25	4	0	0	8	20	0	3	3	225	277	261	539	36	275	16	6	236	39	-9	-1	—	—	+4	-0.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,847	31	35	224	284	339	+20	+15	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	11	12	224	284	339	+7.1	+5.4	0.6	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Edgar Lugo (OGILVIE)	21	60	20	50	20	172/256/270	97	209	2	8	21%	7%	32	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jonathan Herrera 2006 · A	21	49→58	36→40	47→55	44	233/279/296	63	287	3	12	20%	5%	59	-1.1	252/300/332	80	299	5	18	17%	6%	77	+0.1	260/308/337	78	305	5	20	16%	6%	78	+0.2
✕Gilberto Jimenez 2021 · A	21	48→58	37→40	47→50	42	226/277/302	76	294	3	10	23%	5%	60	-1.0	238/269/324	86	343	6	13	31%	3%	62	-0.9	234/263/321	86	339	7	15	32%	3%	55	-0.8
✕Calten Daal 2015 · A	21	53→56	35→30	52→50	40	247/277/309	62	313	3	11	22%	4%	60	-1.0	252/288/303	51	327	3	15	22%	4%	64	-0.8	266/295/296	30	348	1	15	23%	4%	61	-0.5
✕Rosell Herrera 2014 · A	21	49→59	39→45	47→55	42	233/282/315	82	320	7	11	28%	6%	66	-0.6	235/281/317	82	307	7	13	24%	6%	66	-0.6	247/301/337	90	315	4	24	22%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Omar Luna 2008 · A	21	47→57	38→30	48→50	40	223/258/304	81	280	4	10	22%	4%	52	-1.6	211/236/269	58	263	2	11	20%	3%	33	-2.9	259/293/316	57	296	2	11	13%	4%	65	-0.4
✕Raynel Delgado 2021 · A	21	46→56	37→40	50→60	42	217/268/291	74	307	4	9	30%	6%	53	-1.5	197/260/284	87	287	7	14	32%	7%	49	-1.8	242/304/336	94	333	8	32	28%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Chesny Young 2015 · A	22	50→60	38→30	50	37	236/270/324	89	330	5	8	30%	4%	62	-0.9	272/321/339	67	322	3	12	15%	6%	87	+0.8	273/324/332	59	320	2	11	14%	6%	84	+0.5
✕Elvis Perez 2017 · A	21	47	36→30	46→45	45	220/278/291	71	289	2	7	24%	7%	57	-1.2	202/250/281	79	286	5	5	29%	6%	43	-2.2	181/215/272	91	248	8	2	30%	4%	23	-1.1
✕Euribiel Angeles 2023 · A	21	52→58	38→40	47→50	41	244/283/323	79	309	5	10	22%	4%	68	-0.5	230/261/314	84	276	6	15	19%	4%	56	-1.3	223/265/309	86	256	8	15	16%	5%	53	-1.0
✕Jose R. Flores 2009 · A	21	46→51	38→40	49→45	44	218/268/293	75	274	5	8	22%	6%	54	-1.4	230/280/312	82	289	6	8	21%	6%	64	-0.8	242/290/323	81	290	5	7	18%	6%	68	-0.3
✕Chuck Taylor 2015 · A	21	50→56	37→40	46→50	47	231/299/304	73	306	4	8	24%	8%	70	-0.3	223/286/298	75	294	5	7	24%	7%	63	-0.8	243/304/331	88	304	6	4	21%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Yefri Pérez 2013 · A	22	46→56	36→30	51→60	41	218/263/287	69	295	3	9	26%	6%	50	-1.8	234/275/291	57	290	2	24	19%	5%	55	-1.4	244/283/278	34	311	1	39	21%	5%	52	-1.2
✕Jeremy Arocho 2021 · A	22	48→46	36→30	48→60	47	224/285/296	72	288	3	10	22%	7%	62	-0.9	224/322/278	54	314	2	26	25%	12%	75	-0.0	217/330/261	45	297	1	34	24%	14%	71	-0.2
✕Juniel Querecuto 2014 · A	21	47→57	35→45	48→50	43	218/270/279	61	298	2	10	26%	6%	51	-1.7	236/274/303	67	298	4	5	21%	5%	58	-1.2	247/281/346	99	297	9	13	20%	4%	70	-0.2
✕Hainley Statia 2006 · A	20	48→57	37→40	47→50	43	226/266/305	79	274	4	12	19%	5%	56	-1.3	247/293/322	75	296	2	15	16%	6%	71	-0.3	253/300/327	74	298	2	16	15%	6%	72	-0.1
✕Gerson Nunez 2013 · A	22	51	36→30	51→50	38	238/276/305	68	312	3	10	24%	4%	59	-1.1	229/283/325	96	310	9	7	27%	6%	69	-0.4	223/289/337	114	291	15	4	27%	8%	70	-0.1
✕Yonathan Daza 2015 · A	21	50→56	38→40	48→50	41	238/277/314	76	279	6	14	17%	4%	63	-0.9	249/278/318	69	314	3	10	21%	3%	63	-0.8	255/302/330	75	305	4	6	17%	6%	74	-0.0
✕Gabriel Maciel 2019 · A	20	50→52	36→40	46→55	43	237/282/297	60	304	3	12	23%	5%	60	-1.0	223/281/291	68	295	4	16	24%	7%	59	-1.1	218/280/283	65	283	3	19	22%	7%	54	-0.8
✕Kelvin Alarcon 2021 · A	22	49	38→30	53→55	41	225/283/304	80	331	5	11	32%	7%	63	-0.8	203/262/262	59	322	3	7	35%	7%	43	-2.2	187/248/217	30	301	0	6	35%	8%	25	-0.8
✕Magneuris Sierra 2017 · A	21	52→57	36→40	49→60	38	245/274/315	69	322	4	15	25%	4%	60	-1.0	234/265/303	69	306	3	19	23%	4%	54	-1.4	229/277/304	76	301	5	32	24%	6%	55	-0.7