Skylar Hales

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECTFG #911

ETA2028FG ETA2026MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	44	57	3.18	1.90	28.7%	7.4%	—	K 22.6% · BB 8.3% · FIP 2.51
2025	23	MIX2 levels	50	53	6.79	4.61	24.8%	9.4%	—	K 20.6% · BB 9.1% · FIP 5.46
2026	24	AAASTL	39	44	6.34	4.71	21.7%	13.4%	—	K 18.6% · BB 12.0% · FIP 4.72
2027PROJ	25	MLBSTL	57	60	5.04	5.04	20.0%	11.5%	-0.3
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBSTL	28	29	4.95	4.93	20.7%	11.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBSTL	37	39	4.92	4.93	20.9%	11.1%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command40FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsRhiner Cruz (age 25) · Vinnie Chulk (age 25) · Scott Oberg (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.04

FIP5.04

K%20.0%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%8.5%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4550

CMD3040

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	11	39	11	1	3	0%	1.5	28.2%	2.6%	25.6%	7.7%	4.22	5.27	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	11	39	11	1	3	0%	1.5	28.2%	2.6%	25.6%	7.7%	4.22	4.97	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	57	230	66	17	1	0%	1.3	22.6%	8.3%	14.3%	0.5%	3.18	2.51	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	57	230	66	17	1	0%	1.3	22.6%	8.3%	14.3%	0.5%	3.18	2.51	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	57	230	66	17	1	0%	1.3	28.7%	7.4%	21.3%	0.4%	3.18	1.90	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	53	234	58	22	10	0%	1.1	20.6%	9.1%	11.5%	5.4%	6.79	5.46	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	53	234	58	22	10	0%	1.1	20.6%	9.1%	11.5%	5.4%	6.79	5.46	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	53	234	58	22	10	0%	1.1	24.8%	9.4%	15.4%	4.3%	6.79	4.61	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	39	0	44	217	47	29	6	0%	1.1	18.6%	12.0%	6.6%	3.0%	6.34	4.72	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	39	0	44	217	47	29	6	0%	1.1	18.6%	12.0%	6.6%	3.0%	6.34	4.72	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	39	0	44	217	47	29	6	0%	1.1	21.7%	13.4%	8.3%	2.8%	6.34	4.71	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	STL	57	0	60	253	51	29	8	0%	1.1	20.0%	11.5%	8.5%	3.3%	5.04	5.04	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	57	0	60	251	52	28	8	0%	1.0	20.7%	11.2%	9.5%	3.2%	4.95	4.93	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	56	0	59	247	52	28	8	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.1%	9.7%	3.3%	4.92	4.93	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	28	0	29	122	25	14	4	0%	1.0	20.7%	11.2%	9.5%	3.2%	4.95	4.93	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	37	0	39	165	34	18	5	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.1%	9.7%	3.3%	4.92	4.93	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	0	67	285	59	32	9	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.2%	9.6%	3.3%	4.93	4.55	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	95	27	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.2%	9.6%	3.3%	4.93	4.55	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		140	0	164	720	152	68	23	0%	1.2	21.1%	9.4%	11.7%	3.2%	5.26	4.28	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		170	0	200	876	185	82	28	0%	1.2	21.1%	9.4%	11.7%	3.2%	5.26	4.28	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Skylar Hales (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.04	20.0%	11.5%	3.3%	—	4.93	20.8%	9.6%	118	-0.11	—	—	—
Rhiner Cruz R 2012 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	18.2%	11.5%	3.2%	.335	4.81	10.2%	-1.0%	21	+0.01	3.21	127	92
Vinnie Chulk R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	17.7%	10.5%	2.4%	.308	3.95	16.9%	9.6%	171	-0.31	2.97	271	91
Scott Oberg R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	17.0%	11.2%	3.4%	.273	2.92	22.8%	15.6%	188	-2.04	2.54	302	88
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	88
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	88
Taylor Floyd R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	25	SU	4.34	21.7%	10.8%	3.1%	.331	4.61	18.4%	8.9%	192	+0.27	3.48	359	88
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	88
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	88
Morgan McSweeney R 2023 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.1%	12.6%	3.7%	.256	3.56	16.9%	9.7%	85	-1.57	3.20	213	88
Esmerling Vasquez R 2009 · 3.86 FIP	25	SU	3.86	18.9%	11.3%	1.7%	.296	4.30	17.3%	4.7%	116	+0.44	3.70	204	87
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	87
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	87
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	86
Gavin Hollowell R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	25	SU	4.53	21.5%	10.1%	3.6%	.273	3.82	26.5%	13.5%	100	-0.71	2.41	227	86
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	86
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	86
David Goforth R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	17.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.60	3.98	256	86
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	86
Ricky Stone R 2002 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	18.8%	9.3%	2.7%	.297	4.96	13.7%	7.4%	165	+0.80	4.16	243	86
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	86

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	20.5%	11.3%	1.26	4.97
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*