Abel Lorenzo

C ACL Dodgers

Age 21 L/R 5'11" / 160 lbs ROK HR +8%BB -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	ROKLAD	139	.181/.246/.283	3	5	-14	—	.115/.159/.176
2026	20	ALAD	133	.210/.258/.298	1	7	19	—	.175/.212/.254
2026	20	ROKLAD	184	.310/.355/.480	5	20	51	—	.213/.251/.322
2027PROJ0% MLB	21	MLBLAD	427	.200/.245/.291	5	10	50	-0.4
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBLAD	125	.201/.249/.301	2	3	56	-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	23	MLBLAD	212	.205/.255/.313	4	5	61	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Speed83

Z-Con%71

K%42

Whiff%33

ISO27

wOBA7

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsLuis Valenzuela (age 21) · Kody Eaves (age 21) · Esteban González (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 313 proj PA

wRC+†50

AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .243 / .289

PA313

HR4

SB7

K%26

BB%4

ISO91

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 41

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER41

scouting grade only

EYE38

scouting grade only

SPEED61

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL LAD Mega	—	198	167	46	12	2	4	24	54	4	4	5	275	379	443	823	168	378	27	12	364	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL LAD Bautista	—	231	177	35	5	2	2	39	48	11	28	9	198	374	282	657	85	252	21	17	314	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	ACL Dodgers	—	139	127	23	4	0	3	10	47	1	5	1	181	246	283	530	102	256	34	7	242	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A	Ontario Tower Buzzers	—	133	124	26	6	1	1	5	34	3	7	2	210	258	298	556	89	278	26	4	251	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK	ACL Dodgers	—	184	171	53	12	1	5	7	49	5	20	9	310	355	480	835	170	407	27	4	368	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	198	176	28	7	1	1	15	67	4	4	5	159	241	227	468	68	243	34	8	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	231	190	23	3	1	1	26	59	11	28	9	121	264	163	427	42	157	26	11	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	—	139	131	15	2	0	2	6	68	1	5	1	115	159	176	335	61	207	49	4	147	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	—	133	126	22	5	1	1	3	46	3	7	2	175	212	254	466	79	255	35	2	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	—	184	174	37	8	1	3	4	70	5	20	9	213	251	322	573	109	321	38	2	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	198	176	28	7	1	1	15	67	4	4	5	159	241	227	468	68	245	34	8	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	—	198	167	46	12	2	4	24	54	4	4	5	275	379	443	823	168	378	27	12	364	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	231	190	23	3	1	1	26	59	11	28	9	121	264	163	427	42	164	26	11	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	—	231	177	35	5	2	2	39	48	11	28	9	198	374	282	657	85	252	21	17	314	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	—	139	131	15	2	0	2	6	68	1	5	1	115	159	176	335	61	210	49	4	147	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Dodgers	—	139	127	23	4	0	3	10	47	1	5	1	181	246	283	530	102	256	34	7	242	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	317	299	57	12	1	4	8	117	8	27	11	191	232	278	509	87	294	37	3	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	317	295	79	18	2	6	12	83	8	27	11	268	314	403	718	136	351	26	4	319	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	—	198	177	28	7	1	1	15	67	4	4	5	158	241	226	467	68	243	34	8	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	231	192	23	3	1	1	26	59	11	28	9	120	264	161	426	42	157	26	11	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	—	139	131	15	2	0	2	6	68	1	5	1	115	159	176	335	61	207	49	4	147	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	317	298	57	12	1	4	8	117	8	27	11	191	232	279	510	87	293	37	3	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	231	192	23	3	1	1	26	59	11	28	9	120	264	161	426	42	157	26	11	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	—	139	131	15	2	0	2	6	68	1	5	1	115	159	176	335	61	207	49	4	147	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	317	298	57	12	1	4	8	117	8	27	11	191	232	279	510	87	293	37	3	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	LAD	0%	427	400	79	16	2	5	18	112	6	10	3	200	245	291	536	91	260	26	4	242	50	-26	+1	+0	+8	+9	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	LAD	34%	365	340	70	14	2	6	17	94	5	9	3	205	252	307	559	102	263	26	5	251	56	-19	+1	+0	+7	+8	-0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	LAD	48%	438	408	85	17	2	8	21	111	6	11	3	209	258	318	576	109	265	25	5	258	61	-20	+1	+0	+8	+9	-0.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	LAD	53%	486	452	96	19	3	9	25	122	6	12	3	212	263	327	589	114	267	25	5	264	65	-20	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.0
2031	25	MLB MLE	LAD	55%	512	473	102	20	3	10	27	127	7	13	4	214	266	332	598	118	268	25	5	268	67	-20	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	LAD	56%	520	480	104	20	3	11	28	129	7	13	4	216	269	335	604	120	269	25	5	270	69	-19	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.2
2033	27	MLB MLE	LAD	55%	520	481	103	20	3	10	28	130	6	12	4	215	268	333	600	118	269	25	5	269	68	-20	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	LAD	55%	520	481	102	20	2	10	28	131	6	11	4	213	266	328	594	115	268	25	5	266	66	-21	+1	-1	+9	+11	-0.0
2035	29	MLB MLE	LAD	58%	520	481	101	20	2	10	28	132	6	10	4	210	263	322	585	112	266	25	5	262	64	-22	+0	-1	+9	+11	-0.3
2036	30	MLB MLE	LAD	60%	512	474	98	19	2	9	27	132	6	9	4	207	259	314	573	107	264	26	5	258	61	-24	+0	-2	+9	+11	-0.6
2028	22	MLB CTX	LAD	34%	125	116	23	4	1	2	6	32	2	3	1	201	249	301	550	100	257	26	5	247	56	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	LAD	48%	212	197	41	8	1	4	10	54	3	5	1	205	255	313	567	108	259	25	5	255	61	-10	+1	+0	+4	+5	-0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	LAD	53%	256	238	49	9	1	5	13	64	3	6	2	209	259	321	581	113	261	25	5	260	65	-11	+0	+0	+5	+6	-0.0
2031	25	MLB CTX	LAD	55%	280	259	54	10	1	6	15	70	4	7	2	211	263	327	589	116	262	25	5	264	67	-11	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	LAD	56%	289	267	57	11	1	6	16	72	4	7	2	212	265	330	595	118	263	25	6	267	69	-11	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	LAD	55%	286	264	56	11	1	6	16	71	4	7	2	211	264	328	592	117	262	25	6	265	68	-11	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	LAD	55%	284	263	55	10	1	6	16	71	3	6	2	209	262	323	585	114	262	25	6	263	66	-11	+0	-0	+5	+6	-0.0
2035	29	MLB CTX	LAD	58%	301	278	58	11	1	6	16	76	4	6	2	207	259	317	576	110	260	25	5	259	64	-13	+0	-1	+5	+7	-0.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	LAD	60%	308	285	58	11	1	6	16	79	4	6	2	204	256	309	565	106	258	26	5	254	61	-14	+0	-1	+6	+7	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2341	2167	451	85	9	47	124	589	31	53	16	208	261	321	582	113	262	25	5	260	58	-98	+4	-2	+42	+51	-0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	602	125	24	2	13	34	164	9	15	4	208	260	319	579	111	262	25	5	260	58	-27	+1	-1	+12	+14	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	5591	5159	1043	205	27	95	297	1501	83	171	61	202	257	308	565	105	263	27	5	253	58	-205	+7	-4	+84	+102	-1.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	600	121	24	3	11	35	175	10	20	7	202	258	307	564	105	263	27	5	253	58	-28	+1	-1	+12	+14	-0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	5.9	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
/162	664	24	9	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#4Billy Sullivan'01-'12 * career totals — 12 seasons, 3,652 PA	5.5	3,652	11	92	206*	257*	335*	+64	-1	2.9	3.4
/162	664	2	17	+11.7	-0.2	0.5	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.0	2,656	48	61	211	259	322	+47	+24	0.8	1.1
/162	664	12	15	+11.9	+6.0	0.2	pk7: 1
#5Sam Agnew'13-'19 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,711 PA	2.6	1,711	2	29	204*	262*	314*	+31	+0	0.5	0.5
/162	664	1	11	+11.9	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 0
#6Mickey O'Neil'19-'27 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,201 PA	3.3	2,201	4	18	212*	275*	299*	+39	-1	-0.5	0.4
/162	664	1	5	+11.9	-0.3	-0.2	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Abel Lorenzo (OGILVIE)	21	20→25	36→41	56→61	38	198/243/289	91	260	4	7	26%	4%	50	-1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Valenzuela 2015 · A	21	40	37→45	55→45	39	195/234/270	75	262	4	7	27%	5%	40	-3.0	244/269/336	92	305	5	7	21%	3%	69	-0.9	263/285/365	102	319	5	7	19%	2%	78	-0.1
✕Kody Eaves 2014 · A	21	43	37→45	55→50	42	206/247/286	80	263	3	14	22%	5%	49	-2.4	201/242/309	108	289	9	13	32%	5%	53	-2.1	191/250/310	119	262	10	7	30%	7%	55	-1.2
✕Esteban González 2024 · A	21	43→45	41→45	56→55	41	205/280/306	101	298	7	18	31%	7%	68	-1.0	211/269/331	120	298	10	24	31%	6%	70	-0.9	203/264/330	127	285	12	27	31%	6%	65	-0.8
✕Dan Arcila 2011 · A	21	33	37→40	53→50	42	166/231/239	73	242	5	12	32%	7%	34	-3.5	196/250/324	128	265	13	6	30%	6%	61	-1.5	174/233/338	164	215	19	3	29%	6%	53	-0.8
✕Stephen Chapman 2007 · A	21	42→37	42→50	52→50	40	206/259/315	109	281	9	13	29%	6%	61	-1.5	190/240/329	139	284	15	11	37%	5%	58	-1.7	171/221/313	142	257	17	12	40%	5%	46	-1.7
✕Chris Roller 2018 · A	21	37	37→45	53→55	45	177/253/254	77	242	4	12	27%	8%	46	-2.6	204/272/316	112	294	8	11	31%	7%	67	-1.1	189/255/293	104	275	7	15	32%	6%	54	-1.0
✕Cole Roederer 2021 · A	21	39→33	43→45	51→50	42	193/261/303	109	286	10	12	34%	8%	60	-1.6	207/272/319	112	304	11	12	33%	7%	68	-1.0	183/257/295	112	268	12	11	34%	8%	56	-1.1
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→45	49→50	40	186/254/299	114	273	12	9	35%	7%	57	-1.8	197/278/292	95	346	7	8	41%	8%	64	-1.3	149/272/225	76	351	3	4	50%	12%	46	-0.6
✕Jonathan Piron 2016 · A	21	39	42→45	54→50	35	196/223/305	109	262	9	16	29%	3%	45	-2.7	200/231/297	97	293	8	11	33%	3%	46	-2.6	184/210/272	88	272	7	12	34%	2%	30	-2.5
✕Michael Swinson 2011 · A	21	41	41→40	52→50	43	201/265/299	98	278	8	12	29%	7%	60	-1.6	201/265/274	73	267	4	10	24%	8%	54	-2.0	196/267/258	62	261	2	10	23%	9%	49	-1.1
✕Estee Harris 2006 · A	21	37→32	44→50	50	37	190/237/306	116	273	11	14	34%	6%	51	-2.2	189/241/290	101	317	9	13	41%	6%	49	-2.4	173/225/264	91	319	8	13	46%	6%	34	-1.1
✕Miles Gordon 2019 · A	21	41	41→40	55→50	42	202/256/309	106	275	7	14	28%	6%	58	-1.7	187/233/270	83	282	6	14	34%	5%	40	-3.0	154/194/218	63	239	4	16	36%	4%	12	-2.7
✕Kyle Nevin 2023 · A	21	41→40	40	52→50	39	199/251/297	98	277	6	10	29%	5%	54	-2.0	219/276/320	101	333	8	10	34%	7%	69	-0.9	214/275/310	96	327	9	12	35%	7%	64	-0.8
✕Jamodrick McGruder 2014 · A	22	40→44	37→40	52→50	47	193/261/259	66	255	5	10	25%	8%	50	-2.3	211/284/306	95	274	7	10	23%	9%	69	-0.9	206/287/304	98	264	6	10	22%	10%	66	-0.8
✕Michael Siani 2021 · A	22	43→45	38→45	54→60	41	208/264/286	78	288	6	21	29%	6%	56	-1.9	201/273/302	101	275	9	28	28%	8%	63	-1.3	211/284/306	95	276	9	33	25%	9%	67	-0.8
✕Shane Mardirosian 2016 · A	20	42→40	37→40	50→45	39	199/247/277	78	276	4	13	28%	5%	48	-2.5	199/250/269	70	280	4	8	29%	5%	47	-2.5	192/246/257	65	268	4	7	28%	5%	41	-1.6
✕Steven Baron 2013 · A	22	39	41→45	50	37	194/232/294	100	263	8	10	29%	4%	46	-2.6	197/236/287	90	278	6	9	30%	5%	45	-2.7	236/292/311	74	314	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Brandon Dailey 2013 · A	21	42	40→45	55	37	203/249/301	98	294	7	12	32%	5%	54	-2.0	195/248/297	102	288	9	6	34%	6%	53	-2.1	144/199/220	76	199	6	0	30%	5%	17	-1.1
✕Ricardo Méndez 2021 · A	21	44	39→45	54→50	40	208/268/296	88	312	7	13	34%	7%	60	-1.6	217/259/315	98	317	7	13	32%	5%	61	-1.5	212/252/306	95	305	6	14	31%	5%	53	-1.3
✕Kelvin Duran 2012 · A	21	40	38→40	53→55	43	193/246/270	77	260	5	15	27%	6%	46	-2.6	193/238/264	71	290	5	9	33%	5%	41	-3.0	145/174/180	36	215	3	12	34%	3%	-5	-1.3

Abel Lorenzo

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps