Collin Lowe

P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	23	ROKMIA	4	2	11	1.59	2.04	19.6%	4.3%	—	K 19.6% · BB 4.3% · FIP 2.00
2023	24	MIX3 levels	23	13	100	3.68	3.20	19.5%	5.6%	—	K 15.2% · BB 6.2% · FIP 3.62
2024	25	MIX2 levels	28	4	80	4.37	2.70	18.6%	4.1%	—	K 15.1% · BB 3.9% · FIP 3.11
2027PROJ	28	MLBMIA	50	0	52	4.15	4.15	21.0%	6.5%	0.2
2028PROJ30% MLB	29	MLBMIA	14	0	15	4.24	4.30	21.0%	7.0%	0.0
2029PROJ50% MLB	30	MLBMIA	22	0	23	4.38	4.47	20.8%	7.4%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsConnor Schultz (age 25) · Edwin Quirarte (age 28) · Tiago Da Silva (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.15

FIP4.15

K%21.0%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%14.5%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	4	2	11	46	9	2	0	50%	2.8	19.6%	4.3%	15.2%	0.0%	1.59	2.00	—
2022	23	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	4	2	11	46	9	2	0	50%	2.8	19.6%	4.3%	15.2%	0.0%	1.59	2.04	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	13	100	425	83	24	8	57%	4.4	15.2%	6.2%	9.0%	1.9%	3.68	3.62	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	13	100	425	83	24	8	57%	4.4	19.5%	5.6%	13.9%	1.9%	3.68	3.20	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	4	80	338	63	14	4	14%	2.9	15.1%	3.9%	11.2%	1.4%	4.37	3.11	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	4	80	338	63	14	4	14%	2.9	15.1%	3.9%	11.2%	1.4%	4.37	3.11	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	4	80	338	63	14	4	14%	2.9	18.6%	4.1%	14.5%	1.2%	4.37	2.70	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIA	50	0	52	220	46	14	6	0%	1.0	21.0%	6.5%	14.5%	3.0%	4.15	4.15	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIA	47	0	49	209	44	15	6	0%	1.1	21.0%	7.0%	14.0%	3.1%	4.24	4.30	+0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIA	44	0	46	196	41	15	6	0%	1.1	20.8%	7.4%	13.4%	3.3%	4.38	4.47	+0.0
2030	31	MLB MLE	MIA	41	0	43	183	38	14	6	0%	1.1	20.6%	7.9%	12.7%	3.5%	4.55	4.67	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIA	14	0	15	63	13	4	2	0%	1.1	21.0%	7.0%	14.0%	3.1%	4.24	4.30	+0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIA	22	0	23	97	20	7	3	0%	1.0	20.8%	7.4%	13.4%	3.3%	4.38	4.47	+0.0
2030	31	MLB CTX	MIA	27	0	28	118	24	9	4	0%	1.0	20.6%	7.9%	12.7%	3.5%	4.55	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	0	66	279	58	21	9	0%	1.0	20.8%	7.5%	13.2%	3.3%	4.42	4.14	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	64	27	0%	1.1	20.8%	7.5%	13.2%	3.3%	4.42	4.14	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		55	19	192	809	125	42	13	35%	3.5	15.4%	5.1%	10.3%	1.6%	3.84	3.31	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	20	200	843	130	43	13	35%	3.5	15.4%	5.1%	10.3%	1.6%	3.84	3.31	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Collin Lowe (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.15	21.0%	6.5%	3.0%	—	4.47	20.8%	13.4%	139	+0.32	—	—	—
Connor Schultz R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	25	SU	3.88	19.7%	5.3%	3.2%	.283	4.02	18.8%	10.4%	156	+0.14	3.53	203	79
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	78
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	78
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	78
Jose Contreras R 2003 · 3.03 FIP	31	SP-	3.03	24.6%	9.9%	1.4%	.255	4.30	17.9%	9.5%	571	+1.27	2.43	1,279	74
Asher Wojciechowski R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SW	3.99	23.4%	6.5%	3.7%	.299	5.06	21.5%	13.1%	323	+1.07	3.15	678	74
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	73
Noah Davis R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	27	SW	3.88	18.5%	8.4%	2.3%	.368	5.10	18.3%	7.9%	183	+1.22	3.76	596	72
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	72
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	72
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	72
Phil Klein R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	27	SW	3.10	24.5%	6.6%	2.2%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	197	71
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	71
Elian Leyva R 2018 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	17.7%	7.3%	1.0%	.308	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	71	+1.20	3.10	158	71
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	70
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	69
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	69
Cory Lidle R 2000 · 4.32 FIP	28	SW	4.32	14.6%	6.1%	3.1%	.313	4.06	14.2%	8.7%	573	-0.26	3.48	1,318	69
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	69
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	48	20.9%	7.1%	1.24	4.32
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Bobby Tiefenauer ('52-'68, 0 WAR*)	1.6	63	20.4%*	6.7%*	1.10*	4.53*
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*