Cade Gibson

P Miami Marlins

Age 29 LHP 6'2" / 195 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	21	12	81	2.23	3.00	21.1%	10.7%	—	K 16.5% · BB 12.1% · FIP 3.68
2025	27	MIX2 levels	53	1	75	2.65	2.98	21.7%	8.0%	1.4	K 20.6% · BB 7.8% · FIP 3.11
2026	28	MIX2 levels	62	1	72	4.40	3.10	22.5%	8.0%	1.2	K 21.3% · BB 7.9% · FIP 3.23
2027PROJ	29	MLBMIA	69	0	72	4.13	4.25	18.8%	9.1%	0.3
2028PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBMIA	62	0	65	4.32	4.45	18.1%	9.4%	0.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBMIA	57	0	60	4.54	4.69	17.3%	9.8%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs75

K%34

Whiff%27

FB Velo15

CompsRyan Verdugo (age 28) · Raul Valdes (age 32) · Tommy Phelps (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8997vR 105

ERA4.13

FIP4.25

K%18.8%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%9.7%

Proj IP72

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1592.0

Whiff%

p2722.1%

p3419.9%

xwOBA vs

p750.288

CH+3.0 (14%)

SL+1.9 (24%)

SI (23%)

CU (29%)

FB-1.2 (33%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	1	15	58	20	6	0	12%	1.8	34.5%	10.3%	24.1%	0.0%	0.61	1.50	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	1	15	58	20	6	0	12%	1.8	34.5%	10.3%	24.1%	0.0%	0.61	1.60	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	118	502	99	37	10	83%	5.1	15.0%	8.5%	6.5%	3.0%	4.58	4.57	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	19	118	502	99	37	10	83%	5.1	19.7%	7.4%	12.4%	2.0%	4.58	3.46	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	12	81	337	71	36	2	57%	3.8	16.5%	12.1%	4.4%	0.8%	2.23	3.68	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	12	81	337	71	36	2	57%	3.8	16.5%	12.1%	4.4%	0.8%	2.23	3.68	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	12	81	337	71	36	2	57%	3.8	21.1%	10.7%	10.4%	0.6%	2.23	3.00	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	1	75	313	68	25	4	2%	1.4	20.6%	7.8%	12.8%	1.4%	2.65	3.11	+1.3
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	1	75	313	68	25	4	2%	1.4	20.6%	7.8%	12.8%	1.4%	2.65	3.11	+1.3
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	1	75	313	68	25	4	2%	1.4	21.7%	8.0%	13.7%	1.3%	2.65	2.98	+1.4
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	1	72	311	70	25	5	2%	1.2	21.3%	7.9%	13.5%	1.7%	4.40	3.23	+1.1
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	1	72	311	70	25	5	2%	1.2	21.3%	7.9%	13.5%	1.7%	4.40	3.23	+1.1
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	1	72	311	70	25	5	2%	1.2	22.5%	8.0%	14.5%	1.6%	4.40	3.10	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			91	2	105	451	87	38	7	2%	1.2	19.3%	8.4%	10.9%	1.6%	3.94	3.40	+1.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	MIA	69	0	72	304	57	28	7	0%	1.0	18.8%	9.1%	9.7%	2.2%	4.13	4.25	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	MIA	65	0	68	287	52	27	7	0%	1.0	18.1%	9.4%	8.7%	2.4%	4.32	4.45	+0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	MIA	60	0	63	268	46	26	7	0%	1.1	17.3%	9.8%	7.6%	2.6%	4.54	4.69	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	MIA	62	0	65	274	50	26	7	0%	1.0	18.1%	9.4%	8.7%	2.4%	4.32	4.45	+0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	MIA	57	0	60	253	44	25	7	0%	1.1	17.3%	9.8%	7.6%	2.6%	4.54	4.69	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		210	2	230	978	180	88	20	1%	1.1	18.5%	9.0%	9.4%	2.1%	4.21	3.82	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		183	2	200	851	157	77	17	1%	1.1	18.5%	9.0%	9.4%	2.1%	4.21	3.82	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		167	34	360	1521	282	138	28	20%	2.2	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	1.8%	3.45	3.68	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		93	19	200	846	157	77	15	20%	2.2	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	1.8%	3.45	3.68	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Gibson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	18.8%	9.1%	2.2%	—	4.57	17.7%	8.2%	131	+0.32	—	—	—
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	76
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	75
Tommy Phelps L 2003 · 3.39 FIP	29	SW	3.39	15.6%	8.0%	1.1%	.322	4.47	16.9%	8.9%	57	+1.08	3.39	120	74
Josh Osich L 2018 · 3.73 FIP	29	SU	3.73	17.3%	9.5%	1.6%	.377	5.05	22.2%	15.9%	115	+1.32	3.41	315	74
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	74
Chad Zerbe L 2001 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	13.6%	6.2%	1.8%	.299	3.88	9.4%	2.6%	106	+0.13	3.75	145	71
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	71
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	70
Matt Thornton L 2006 · 3.43 FIP	29	SU	3.43	21.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.263	2.61	27.2%	20.5%	196	-0.82	1.71	663	70
Lucas Luetge L 2016 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	21.0%	10.8%	1.8%	.346	3.56	22.0%	14.2%	100	-0.09	2.53	508	70
Blaine Hardy L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	29	SU	3.32	16.2%	6.2%	1.5%	.246	3.82	20.6%	14.7%	231	+0.50	2.74	456	70
Sam Freeman L 2016 · 4.22 FIP	29	SU	4.22	16.3%	11.8%	1.8%	.345	4.02	22.1%	10.5%	169	-0.20	3.02	369	70
Scott Alexander L 2018 · 3.30 FIP	29	SU	3.30	20.9%	9.3%	1.4%	.290	4.64	13.3%	5.0%	45	+1.34	2.90	427	70
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	69
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	69
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	69
Darin Downs L 2014 · 3.78 FIP	29	SU	3.78	18.2%	11.5%	1.4%	.255	4.06	12.9%	8.7%	16	+0.28	2.83	107	69
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	68
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	68
John King L 2024 · 3.66 FIP	29	SU	3.66	15.3%	5.2%	2.2%	.276	4.83	14.7%	7.8%	98	+1.17	2.85	439	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	62	18.5%	9.4%	0.81	4.19
Cesár Ramos ('16)	1.7	58	17.8%	9.3%	0.91	4.02
Jake Petricka ('21)	1.2	59	17.4%	9.9%	0.72	4.24
Javy Guerra ('21)	1.5	50	18.5%	9.1%	0.86	3.98
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Mark Dewey ('90-'96, 3 WAR*)	1.2	42	18.7%*	9.6%*	0.80*	3.89*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*