Kevin Davis
P
Fredericksburg Nationals
Age 27
RHP
6'9" / 280 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION16 act + 27 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
K%23.8%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%13.0%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 45 | 202 | 69 | 27 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.8% | 15.9% | 8.9% | 0.0% | 4.57 | 3.02 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 45 | 202 | 69 | 27 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 34.2% | 13.4% | 20.8% | 0.0% | 4.57 | 1.84 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 13 | 0 | 16 | 71 | 18 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | 5.06 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 27 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.8% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 4.33 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 43 | 185 | 45 | 24 | 4 | — | — | 24.4% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 2.2% | 4.60 | 2.72 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 25 | 0 | 26 | 111 | 26 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.03 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 189 | 84 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.03 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 46 | 0 | 61 | 273 | 68 | 44 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.9% | 16.2% | 8.8% | 0.4% | 4.70 | 3.24 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 150 | 0 | 200 | 890 | 222 | 144 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.9% | 16.2% | 8.8% | 0.4% | 4.70 | 3.24 | +5.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kevin Davis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 23.8% | 10.7% | 2.7% | — | 4.41 | 23.6% | 12.9% | 26 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.69 | 2.59 | 309 | 85 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 83 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .230 | 3.59 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 40 | -0.49 | 2.74 | 188 | 83 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.39 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .237 | 2.64 | 33.1% | 24.9% | 88 | -0.75 | 2.45 | 394 | 83 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 83 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.43 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .321 | 2.78 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.65 | 2.29 | 538 | 82 |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.71 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .252 | 4.13 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 108 | +0.42 | 3.15 | 307 | 82 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 82 |
| Simon Castro R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.16 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .320 | 3.55 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.39 | 2.85 | 185 | 82 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 82 |
| Holt Jones R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.13 | 24.2% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 217 | 82 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.30 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .276 | 6.16 | 27.5% | 9.3% | 50 | +2.86 | 2.80 | 155 | 82 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.46 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .295 | 2.74 | 30.3% | 18.1% | 57 | -0.72 | 2.74 | 239 | 82 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 81 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.94 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.93 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +0.99 | 3.68 | 181 | 81 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .417 | 2.87 | 19.5% | 13.2% | 71 | -1.12 | 1.94 | 143 | 81 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.5% | .280 | 4.01 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.02 | 3.07 | 363 | 81 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 121 | 81 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 81 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.29 | 27.9% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .301 | 3.49 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 70 | +0.20 | 2.59 | 156 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 27 | 23.7% | 10.7% | 1.08 | 4.35 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |