Luke Dotson

P Hillsboro Hops

Age 23 LHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	34	45	3.00	2.12	32.7%	7.7%	—	K 24.7% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.18
2027PROJ	23	MLBARI	26	27	4.21	4.21	23.4%	8.9%	0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBARI	17	18	4.16	4.12	24.0%	8.6%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsAndrew Mitchell (age 23) · Ryan Rowland-Smith (age 24) · Mike Zagurski (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 113

ERA4.21

FIP4.21

K%23.4%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%14.6%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	45	196	64	15	3	0%	1.3	24.7%	8.8%	15.9%	1.9%	3.00	3.18	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	45	196	64	15	3	0%	1.3	24.7%	8.8%	15.9%	1.9%	3.00	3.18	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	45	196	64	15	3	0%	1.3	32.7%	7.7%	25.0%	1.5%	3.00	2.12	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	ARI	26	0	27	114	27	10	3	0%	1.0	23.4%	8.9%	14.6%	2.9%	4.21	4.21	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	ARI	40	0	42	175	42	15	5	0%	1.0	24.0%	8.6%	15.4%	2.9%	4.16	4.12	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	ARI	17	0	18	76	18	7	2	0%	1.1	24.0%	8.6%	15.4%	2.9%	4.16	4.12	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	75	18	7	2	0%	1.1	24.0%	8.6%	15.4%	2.9%	4.16	3.74	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	202	78	22	0%	1.1	24.0%	8.6%	15.4%	2.9%	4.16	3.74	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		34	0	45	196	48	17	4	0%	1.3	24.7%	8.8%	15.9%	1.9%	3.00	3.18	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		151	0	200	871	216	77	17	0%	1.3	24.7%	8.8%	15.9%	1.9%	3.00	3.18	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Dotson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.21	23.4%	8.9%	2.9%	—	4.12	24.0%	15.4%	42	-0.09	—	—	—
Andrew Mitchell L 2018 · 3.75 FIP	23	SU	3.75	21.8%	7.5%	2.8%	.333	2.71	23.8%	15.8%	78	-1.04	2.51	119	90
Ryan Rowland-Smith L 2007 · 3.35 FIP	24	SU	3.35	25.0%	8.3%	2.4%	.324	4.89	12.7%	4.4%	324	+1.54	3.35	363	90
Mike Zagurski L 2007 · 4.10 FIP	24	SU	4.10	20.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	88
Taylor Tankersley L 2006 · 3.65 FIP	23	SU	3.65	25.8%	11.8%	2.2%	.271	4.62	21.6%	9.8%	65	+0.97	3.65	118	85
Wyatt Short L 2018 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.262	4.01	20.5%	10.3%	91	+0.18	2.74	288	85
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	85
Garvin Alston L 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SU	4.29	19.7%	6.6%	3.7%	.333	4.74	16.4%	2.9%	84	+0.45	3.98	232	85
Will Ohman L 2001 · 4.66 FIP	23	SU	4.66	22.2%	11.1%	3.7%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	350	84
Jose Mijares L 2009 · 3.88 FIP	24	SU	3.88	21.7%	8.7%	2.8%	.254	3.61	19.1%	10.3%	138	-0.27	2.78	249	84
Hunter Schryver L 2018 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	23.2%	6.8%	2.9%	.259	4.22	19.9%	7.5%	106	+0.64	3.58	206	84
Easton Lucas L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	23.6%	9.2%	3.7%	.316	4.00	21.5%	11.9%	184	-0.29	3.38	311	84
Robert Garcia L 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SU	4.35	24.0%	11.4%	3.3%	.342	4.38	22.0%	10.4%	106	+0.03	2.21	471	84
Chris Cotton L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	20.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.288	4.17	9.7%	3.3%	61	+0.48	3.69	128	84
Scott Elbert L 2009 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	25.3%	8.4%	4.8%	.294	2.95	23.2%	15.1%	66	-1.73	2.32	105	83
Jerry Vasto L 2015 · 3.28 FIP	23	SU	3.28	21.2%	9.5%	1.4%	.265	3.52	23.3%	12.8%	147	+0.24	2.89	206	83
Rafael Perez L 2006 · 3.93 FIP	24	SU	3.93	26.8%	8.9%	3.6%	.235	3.21	23.6%	17.0%	185	-0.72	2.74	403	83
Mason Melotakis L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	25	SU	3.32	23.6%	9.2%	1.9%	.379	4.35	18.2%	7.1%	80	+1.03	3.32	142	82
Michael Johnson L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SU	3.92	20.6%	9.4%	2.5%	.260	4.70	17.6%	7.7%	185	+0.78	3.92	256	82
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.59	24.3%	15.3%	149	+0.91	3.68	206	82
Scott Stewart L 2001 · 3.65 FIP	25	SU	3.65	19.6%	6.5%	2.5%	.268	3.32	21.2%	15.5%	133	-0.33	2.60	181	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	23.8%	8.7%	1.11	4.18
Charlie Furbush ('15)	1.3	52	24.5%	8.1%	1.04	3.97
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
David Carpenter ('19)	1.1	43	23.5%	8.4%	0.92	3.69
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Carlos Diaz ('82-'86, 2 WAR*)	1.3	52	25.1%*	8.7%*	0.91*	3.84*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*