Michael Walsh
P
Greensboro Grasshoppers
+0.6
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA4.05
FIP4.05
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.3%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%13.2%
IP59
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 10.80 | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 11 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.93 | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 30 | 0 | 41 | 159 | 38 | 11 | 1 | 17.9% | 8.0% | 0.7% | 1.11 | 2.99 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | 49 | 0 | 68 | 276 | 67 | 15 | 2 | 18.9% | 6.2% | 0.9% | 2.93 | 2.76 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 53 | 20 | 6 | 21.3% | 8.0% | 2.5% | 4.05 | 4.05 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 54 | 20 | 6 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 2.5% | 4.06 | 4.06 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 54 | 20 | 6 | 21.8% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 4.08 | 4.08 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 53 | 20 | 6 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 4.11 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 52 | 20 | 6 | 21.8% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.17 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 50 | 20 | 6 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.24 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 52 | — | 52 | 222 | 47 | 19 | 6 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.31 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 45 | 19 | 6 | 21.0% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 42 | 18 | 6 | 20.7% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 39 | 18 | 6 | 20.4% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 36 | 17 | 6 | 20.0% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 33 | 16 | 6 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.78 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 92 | 0 | 121 | 493 | 94 | 37 | 3 | 19.0% | 7.5% | 0.7% | 2.45 | 2.83 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 152 | 0 | 200 | 815 | 155 | 61 | 5 | 19.0% | 7.5% | 0.7% | 2.45 | 2.83 | +5.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Walsh (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.05 | 21.3% | 8.0% | 2.5% | — | 4.09 | 21.8% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.40 | 19.6% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .293 | 5.06 | 17.7% | 7.8% | 115 | +1.66 | 3.40 | 258 | 93 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .313 | 3.35 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.33 | 2.78 | 312 | 92 |
| Alex Phillips R 2025 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.34 | 3.26 | 139 | 91 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.90 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .311 | 6.77 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.87 | 3.90 | 106 | 91 |
| Casey Cobb R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.52 | 21.8% | 6.2% | 2.7% | .261 | 5.56 | 17.2% | 8.3% | 118 | +2.04 | 3.52 | 191 | 90 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.41 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.65 | 255 | 89 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.37 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 134 | 89 |
| Matt Pierpont R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.50 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .295 | 3.39 | 21.6% | 13.6% | 156 | -0.11 | 2.79 | 280 | 89 |
| Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .284 | 3.18 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 103 | -0.81 | 3.13 | 179 | 88 |
| J.R. Graham R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .317 | 3.65 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 61 | -0.72 | 3.31 | 125 | 88 |
| Michael Blazek R 2027 · 3.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.06 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .239 | 4.22 | 16.6% | 6.3% | 126 | +1.16 | 3.06 | 221 | 88 |
| Josh Martin R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.10 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 2.0% | .257 | 2.97 | 20.7% | 13.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 2.43 | 225 | 88 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 87 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2028 · 3.50 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.50 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .241 | 3.22 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 43 | -0.28 | 2.49 | 131 | 87 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 87 |
| Colton Hock R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.77 | 21.3% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .304 | 3.84 | 17.7% | 11.7% | 60 | +0.07 | 3.28 | 253 | 87 |
| Jack Dallas R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.54 | 18.6% | 8.1% | 1.8% | .286 | 3.58 | 18.9% | 12.1% | 49 | +0.04 | 3.03 | 169 | 87 |
| Mark McLaughlin R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.95 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 2.8% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 174 | 87 |
| Mike Morin R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.47 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 2.6% | .291 | 3.76 | 16.4% | 11.2% | 176 | +0.29 | 3.03 | 302 | 87 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .311 | 5.44 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.41 | 152 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.2 | $1M | -$0.5M |
| Totals | $6M | $11M | +$5M | ||