Tyler Vogel

P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 26 RHP 5'11" / 180 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	19	2	29	3.99	3.99	22.3%	11.5%	—	K 15.1% · BB 12.3% · FIP 5.20
2025	24	MIX3 levels	40	0	59	2.88	3.08	25.5%	10.3%	—	K 20.4% · BB 11.0% · FIP 3.84
2026	25	MIX2 levels	45	0	54	3.35	4.07	24.0%	14.2%	—	K 19.5% · BB 15.4% · FIP 4.85
2027PROJ	26	MLBSF	67	0	70	5.22	5.22	19.3%	14.3%	-0.5
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBSF	25	0	26	5.15	5.16	19.7%	13.9%	-0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBSF	38	0	40	5.15	5.19	19.8%	13.7%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control40Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsNolan Riggs (age 25) · Armando Rivero (age 27) · Juan Paniagua (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%19.3%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%5.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	4	0	2	17	2	5	0	0%	0.6	11.8%	29.4%	-17.6%	0.0%	11.57	5.83	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Black	4	0	2	17	2	5	0	0%	0.6	11.8%	29.4%	-17.6%	0.0%	11.57	7.81	—
2023	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	39	0	65	281	89	34	7	0%	1.7	23.4%	14.3%	9.2%	3.6%	4.27	4.93	—
2023	22	A RAW	San Jose Giants	39	0	65	281	89	34	7	0%	1.7	31.7%	12.1%	19.6%	2.5%	4.27	3.33	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	2	29	130	29	15	3	11%	1.5	15.1%	12.3%	2.8%	3.3%	3.99	5.20	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	2	29	130	29	15	3	11%	1.5	15.1%	12.3%	2.8%	3.3%	3.99	5.20	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	2	29	130	29	15	3	11%	1.5	22.3%	11.5%	10.8%	2.3%	3.99	3.99	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	59	263	67	27	4	0%	1.5	20.4%	11.0%	9.4%	1.9%	2.88	3.84	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	59	263	67	27	4	0%	1.5	20.4%	11.0%	9.4%	1.9%	2.88	3.84	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	59	263	67	27	4	0%	1.5	25.5%	10.3%	15.2%	1.5%	2.88	3.08	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	54	233	56	33	5	0%	1.2	19.5%	15.4%	4.1%	2.6%	3.35	4.85	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	54	233	56	33	5	0%	1.2	19.5%	15.4%	4.1%	2.6%	3.35	4.85	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	54	233	56	33	5	0%	1.2	24.0%	14.2%	9.9%	2.1%	3.35	4.07	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	SF	67	0	70	296	57	42	8	0%	1.0	19.3%	14.3%	5.0%	2.8%	5.22	5.22	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	66	0	69	291	57	40	8	0%	1.0	19.7%	13.9%	5.8%	2.9%	5.15	5.16	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	SF	64	0	67	282	56	39	8	0%	1.0	19.8%	13.7%	6.2%	3.0%	5.15	5.19	-0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	SF	61	0	64	270	53	37	9	0%	1.0	19.8%	13.7%	6.1%	3.2%	5.20	5.27	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	25	0	26	110	22	15	3	0%	1.0	19.7%	13.9%	5.8%	2.9%	5.15	5.16	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	SF	38	0	40	169	34	23	5	0%	1.1	19.8%	13.7%	6.2%	3.0%	5.15	5.19	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	SF	43	0	45	190	38	26	6	0%	1.0	19.8%	13.7%	6.1%	3.2%	5.20	5.27	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	468	93	64	14	0%	1.0	19.8%	13.7%	6.1%	3.0%	5.17	4.84	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	115	25	0%	1.1	19.8%	13.7%	6.1%	3.0%	5.17	4.84	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		147	2	210	924	187	126	26	1%	1.4	20.2%	13.6%	6.6%	2.8%	3.69	4.65	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	2	200	880	178	120	25	1%	1.4	20.2%	13.6%	6.6%	2.8%	3.69	4.65	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Vogel (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	19.3%	14.3%	2.8%	—	5.21	19.8%	6.0%	200	-0.01	—	—	—
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	89
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	89
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	87
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	87
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	86
Dusty Isaacs R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	26	SU	5.26	19.3%	14.1%	3.7%	.287	3.16	26.8%	20.6%	26	-2.10	3.16	253	86
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	85
Brad Schreiber R 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SU	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	171	85
Esmerling Vasquez R 2010 · 4.37 FIP	26	SU	4.37	22.9%	14.6%	2.5%	.278	4.23	12.5%	1.5%	62	-0.14	3.70	204	85
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	85
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	85
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	84
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	84
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	84
Holt Jones R 2024 · 4.36 FIP	25	SU	4.36	19.0%	15.0%	1.8%	.326	4.32	22.4%	8.3%	123	-0.04	4.21	254	83
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	83
Billy Seidl R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	18.3%	14.2%	2.2%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	102	83
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	83
D.J. Carrasco R 2003 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	16.1%	10.1%	2.2%	.291	4.66	10.5%	1.4%	150	+0.39	3.23	490	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	19.6%	13.9%	1.15	5.18
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*