Will Geerdes

P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	22	ASD	5	2	14	4.40	2.61	24.6%	13.0%	—	K 18.2% · BB 15.4% · FIP 3.51
2023	23	MIX2 levels	34	0	55	4.58	3.32	25.1%	11.1%	—	K 18.8% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.45
2024	24	A+SD	34	0	51	5.79	4.41	21.1%	10.6%	—	K 16.3% · BB 12.2% · FIP 5.57
2027PROJ	27	MLBSD	34	0	36	4.69	4.69	21.2%	10.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	28	MLBSD	12	0	13	4.70	4.74	21.3%	10.5%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsFernando Rodriguez Jr. (age 27) · Joe Colón J (age 27) · Spencer Bivens (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%21.2%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%10.7%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	5	2	14	69	17	9	0	40%	2.9	18.2%	15.4%	2.8%	0.0%	4.40	3.51	—
2022	22	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	5	2	14	69	17	9	0	40%	2.9	24.6%	13.0%	11.6%	0.0%	4.40	2.61	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	55	235	59	26	4	0%	1.6	18.8%	12.9%	5.9%	2.4%	4.58	4.45	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	55	235	59	26	4	0%	1.6	25.1%	11.1%	14.0%	1.7%	4.58	3.32	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	34	0	51	227	48	24	7	0%	1.5	16.3%	12.2%	4.1%	4.2%	5.79	5.57	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	34	0	51	227	48	24	7	0%	1.5	16.3%	12.2%	4.1%	4.2%	5.79	5.57	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	34	0	51	227	48	24	7	0%	1.5	21.1%	10.6%	10.6%	3.1%	5.79	4.41	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	SD	34	0	36	152	32	16	5	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.5%	10.7%	3.0%	4.69	4.69	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	SD	33	0	35	147	31	15	5	0%	1.1	21.3%	10.5%	10.7%	3.1%	4.70	4.74	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	SD	12	0	13	55	12	6	2	0%	1.1	21.3%	10.5%	10.7%	3.1%	4.70	4.74	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	54	11	6	2	0%	1.1	21.3%	10.5%	10.7%	3.1%	4.70	4.36	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	94	31	0%	1.1	21.3%	10.5%	10.7%	3.1%	4.70	4.36	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		73	2	121	531	94	69	15	3%	1.7	17.7%	12.9%	4.7%	2.8%	5.07	4.81	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		121	3	200	880	155	114	25	3%	1.7	17.7%	12.9%	4.7%	2.8%	5.07	4.81	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Geerdes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	21.2%	10.5%	3.0%	—	4.74	21.3%	10.7%	35	+0.05	—	—	—
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	86
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	85
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	85
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	84
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	84
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	84
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	84
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	84
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	84
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	84
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	84
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	83
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	83
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	83
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	83
Cole Sulser R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	22.6%	10.2%	1.9%	.321	2.85	28.2%	18.4%	140	-0.67	2.38	554	83
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	83
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	83
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	27	SU	4.76	23.0%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.18	3.73	223	83
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	35	21.2%	10.5%	1.19	4.69
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*