JJ Sanchez — OGILVIE

JJ Sanchez P Vancouver Canadians

Age 27 LHP 5'11" / 185 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 60 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133141vR 149

ERA6.11

FIP6.11

K%16.7%

BB%18.9%

K-BB%-2.3%

ROS IP60

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2525

CMD3030

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	5	0	5	21	4	3	0	0%	1.0	19.0%	14.3%	4.8%	0.0%	1.80	3.30	—
2023	23	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	5	0	5	21	4	3	0	0%	1.0	19.0%	14.3%	4.8%	0.0%	1.80	3.30	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	51	230	62	37	1	0%	1.4	18.4%	19.8%	-1.3%	0.6%	2.84	4.39	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	51	230	62	37	1	0%	1.4	18.4%	19.8%	-1.3%	0.6%	2.84	4.39	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	51	230	62	37	1	0%	1.4	27.0%	16.1%	10.9%	0.4%	2.84	3.10	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	35	0	47	218	46	32	5	0%	1.3	16.2%	16.9%	-0.6%	3.4%	3.28	5.71	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	35	0	47	218	46	32	5	0%	1.3	16.2%	16.9%	-0.6%	3.4%	3.28	5.71	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	35	0	47	218	46	32	5	0%	1.3	21.1%	14.7%	6.4%	2.3%	3.28	4.58	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	TOR	57	0	60	253	42	48	8	0%	1.1	16.7%	18.9%	-2.3%	3.0%	6.11	6.11	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	TOR	55	0	58	244	42	44	8	0%	1.0	17.2%	18.1%	-0.9%	3.1%	5.98	6.01	-0.9
2029	29	MLB MLE	TOR	52	0	55	233	41	41	8	0%	1.1	17.5%	17.7%	-0.2%	3.2%	5.95	6.02	-0.9
2028	28	MLB CTX	TOR	20	0	21	89	15	16	3	0%	1.1	17.2%	18.1%	-0.9%	3.1%	5.98	6.01	-0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	TOR	29	0	30	127	22	22	4	0%	1.0	17.5%	17.7%	-0.2%	3.2%	5.95	6.02	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		49	0	51	217	38	39	7	0%	1.1	17.4%	17.9%	-0.5%	3.2%	5.96	5.64	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	148	152	27	0%	1.1	17.4%	17.9%	-0.5%	3.2%	5.96	5.64	-2.5
Career	—	MLE		75	0	102	469	82	85	9	0%	1.4	17.4%	18.2%	-0.7%	1.9%	2.99	4.95	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		147	0	200	917	160	167	17	0%	1.4	17.4%	18.2%	-0.7%	1.9%	2.99	4.95	-3.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
JJ Sanchez (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.11	16.7%	18.9%	3.0%	—	6.01	17.3%	-0.6%	113	-0.10	—	—	—
Nick Lee L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	19.0%	19.7%	1.8%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	102	83
Matt Mikulski L 2024 · 6.18 FIP	25	SU	6.18	15.3%	17.1%	4.0%	.275	4.98	19.5%	-8.3%	18	-1.20	4.92	223	80
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	79
Brian Marconi L 2022 · 5.02 FIP	25	SU	5.02	20.3%	18.2%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	101	79
Andrew Mitchell L 2022 · 6.04 FIP	27	SU	6.04	18.2%	17.0%	4.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	119	78
Chandler Jozwiak L 2024 · 5.33 FIP	25	SU	5.33	16.9%	15.3%	3.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	161	78
Hunter Cervenka L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	27	SU	5.91	18.9%	15.0%	4.6%	.282	3.10	25.9%	15.0%	81	-2.81	3.08	194	77
Kit Scheetz L 2021 · 5.08 FIP	27	SU	5.08	16.2%	13.6%	2.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.34	195	76
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	75
Davis Schwab L 2022 · 5.70 FIP	25	SU	5.70	20.3%	18.7%	3.5%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	114	74
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	73
Estevan Gonzalez L 2017 · 5.21 FIP	25	SU	5.21	12.1%	13.3%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	195	73
Evan Lee L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	26	SU	5.38	17.2%	25.3%	0.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	129	72
Ryne Slack L 2018 · 5.59 FIP	26	SU	5.59	13.9%	12.1%	3.9%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	212	72
Holden Capps L 2022 · 5.37 FIP	27	SU	5.37	15.3%	19.1%	2.1%	.392	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	215	72
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	71
Cody Beckman L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	26	SU	5.27	19.3%	14.9%	3.5%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	189	71
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	70
Heath Murray L 2001 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	14.0%	11.6%	3.6%	.333	6.02	20.0%	7.3%	12	+0.62	4.69	159	70
Dante Biasi L 2023 · 6.65 FIP	25	SU	6.65	20.1%	18.4%	5.3%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	4.91	224	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	17.1%	18.3%	1.20	6.02
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68