Luke Hansel

P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 26 RHP A peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

APROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	25	MIX2 levels	16	1	47	5.55	4.01	20.5%	5.9%	—	K 16.3% · BB 5.1% · FIP 4.99
2027PROJ	26	MLBCOL	21	0	22	4.33	4.33	19.4%	6.0%	0.1
2028PROJ36% MLB	27	MLBCOL	14	0	15	4.35	4.37	19.8%	6.4%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsConnor Schultz (age 25) · Lance Carter (age 27) · Jeff Manship (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.33

FIP4.33

K%19.4%

BB%6.0%

K-BB%13.4%

Proj IP22

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	1	47	205	42	12	7	6%	2.9	16.3%	5.1%	11.3%	4.8%	5.55	4.99	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	1	47	205	42	12	7	6%	2.9	16.3%	5.1%	11.3%	4.8%	5.55	4.99	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	1	47	205	42	12	7	6%	2.9	20.5%	5.9%	14.6%	3.4%	5.55	4.01	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	COL	21	0	22	93	18	6	3	0%	1.0	19.4%	6.0%	13.4%	3.2%	4.33	4.33	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	COL	40	0	42	176	35	11	6	0%	1.0	19.8%	6.4%	13.4%	3.2%	4.35	4.37	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	COL	14	0	15	63	13	4	2	0%	1.1	19.8%	6.4%	13.4%	3.2%	4.35	4.37	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	64	13	4	2	0%	1.1	19.8%	6.4%	13.4%	3.2%	4.35	3.99	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	53	26	0%	1.1	19.8%	6.4%	13.4%	3.2%	4.35	3.99	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		16	1	47	205	34	10	10	6%	2.9	16.3%	5.1%	11.3%	4.8%	5.55	4.99	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	4	200	872	143	44	42	6%	2.9	16.3%	5.1%	11.3%	4.8%	5.55	4.99	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Hansel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	19.4%	6.0%	3.2%	—	4.37	19.8%	13.4%	42	+0.04	—	—	—
Connor Schultz R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	25	SU	3.88	19.7%	5.3%	3.2%	.283	4.02	18.8%	10.4%	156	+0.14	3.53	203	88
Lance Carter R 2002 · 3.63 FIP	27	SU	3.63	17.7%	5.1%	2.5%	.220	4.80	11.6%	6.3%	216	+1.17	3.63	248	84
Jeff Manship R 2010 · 3.60 FIP	25	SU	3.60	16.9%	4.8%	2.4%	.330	5.09	12.6%	5.5%	52	+1.49	2.83	250	80
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	76
Jon Rauch R 2005 · 3.78 FIP	26	SU	3.78	18.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.236	3.67	21.6%	15.8%	250	-0.11	2.87	595	76
Cristhian Martinez R 2009 · 3.51 FIP	27	SU	3.51	16.1%	6.2%	1.8%	.294	3.46	19.8%	14.7%	177	-0.05	3.09	204	76
Danny Hrbek R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	21.3%	7.5%	3.1%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	100	76
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	75
Ryan Halstead R 2018 · 4.08 FIP	26	SU	4.08	18.0%	6.7%	3.0%	.296	3.24	16.1%	8.7%	64	-0.84	3.12	222	75
Matt Pierpont R 2017 · 3.45 FIP	26	SU	3.45	18.8%	6.0%	2.1%	.201	3.38	23.4%	14.1%	94	-0.07	2.76	280	75
Troy Neiman R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	26	SU	4.03	18.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	199	73
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	73
John Brebbia R 2016 · 4.11 FIP	26	SU	4.11	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.346	3.20	27.6%	21.4%	215	-0.91	2.89	576	73
Shawn Camp R 2004 · 4.18 FIP	28	SU	4.18	17.8%	5.2%	3.5%	.305	3.88	15.5%	10.5%	164	-0.30	2.79	589	72
Joe Navilhon R 2019 · 3.23 FIP	26	SU	3.23	20.5%	7.7%	1.6%	.322	4.28	23.4%	16.7%	99	+1.05	2.25	273	72
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	72
Jorge Campillo R 2007 · 4.84 FIP	28	SU	4.84	14.3%	9.5%	3.2%	.348	3.93	16.3%	10.8%	159	-0.91	3.93	172	72
Chris Powell R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	24	SU	3.53	18.8%	3.7%	2.8%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	102	72
Brad Bass R 2021 · 4.10 FIP	25	SU	4.10	21.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	247	72
Pedro Rodriguez R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	27	SU	3.21	16.4%	4.5%	1.7%	.272	3.70	13.1%	5.2%	43	+0.49	3.21	145	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	19.7%	6.3%	1.23	4.34
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Junichi Tazawa ('18)	2.0	49	22.2%	6.5%	1.12	4.12
James Russell ('16)	1.7	56	17.0%	7.0%	1.16	4.09
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Bobby Tiefenauer ('52-'68, 0 WAR*)	1.6	63	20.4%*	6.7%*	1.10*	4.53*