Izaak Martinez — OGILVIE

Izaak Martinez P Lake County Captains

Age 24 LHP 5'8" / 198 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 132

ERA5.19

FIP5.19

K%13.9%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%3.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	7	0	13	55	16	7	2	0%	1.9	21.5%	15.0%	6.5%	5.6%	2.77	6.26	—
2024	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	7	0	13	55	16	7	2	0%	1.9	21.5%	15.0%	6.5%	5.6%	2.77	6.26	—
2024	22	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	7	0	13	55	16	7	2	0%	1.9	29.1%	12.7%	16.4%	3.6%	2.77	4.25	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	67	275	58	20	4	0%	1.9	16.0%	8.4%	7.6%	1.7%	3.24	3.77	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	67	275	58	20	4	0%	1.9	16.0%	8.4%	7.6%	1.7%	3.24	3.77	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	67	275	58	20	4	0%	1.9	21.1%	7.3%	13.8%	1.5%	3.24	3.04	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	37	1	63	261	76	25	8	3%	1.7	24.5%	10.4%	14.1%	3.6%	2.15	4.32	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	37	1	63	261	76	25	8	3%	1.7	24.5%	10.4%	14.1%	3.6%	2.15	4.32	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	CLE	24	0	40	164	50	15	4	0%	1.7	30.5%	9.1%	21.3%	2.4%	1.59	3.02	—
2026	24	AA RAW	CLE	10	1	19	76	25	7	3	10%	1.9	32.9%	9.2%	23.7%	3.9%	1.89	3.66	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	CLE	3	0	4	21	1	3	1	0%	1.3	4.8%	14.3%	-9.5%	4.8%	9.00	7.12	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	CLE	5	0	6	24	3	3	1	0%	1.1	13.9%	10.6%	3.3%	2.8%	5.19	5.19	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	68	285	79	28	9	—	—	27.8%	9.7%	18.2%	3.0%	2.41	4.39	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CLE	65	0	68	287	45	30	8	0%	1.0	15.8%	10.3%	5.5%	2.8%	5.04	5.00	-0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	CLE	65	0	68	287	48	29	8	0%	1.0	16.9%	10.2%	6.7%	2.8%	4.93	4.90	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	CLE	64	0	67	283	49	29	8	0%	1.0	17.2%	10.2%	7.0%	2.9%	4.90	4.91	-0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	CLE	62	0	65	274	47	28	8	0%	1.0	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	3.0%	4.94	4.98	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	CLE	28	0	29	122	19	13	3	0%	1.0	15.8%	10.3%	5.5%	2.8%	5.04	5.00	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	CLE	43	0	45	190	32	19	5	0%	1.0	16.9%	10.2%	6.7%	2.8%	4.93	4.90	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	CLE	50	0	52	220	38	22	6	0%	1.0	17.2%	10.2%	7.0%	2.9%	4.90	4.91	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	CLE	52	0	55	232	40	24	7	0%	1.1	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	3.0%	4.94	4.98	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	0	181	764	129	79	22	0%	1.1	16.9%	10.3%	6.6%	2.9%	4.94	4.56	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	143	87	24	0%	1.1	16.9%	10.3%	6.6%	2.9%	4.94	4.56	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		80	1	142	591	120	58	17	1%	1.8	20.3%	9.9%	10.4%	2.9%	2.72	4.24	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		112	1	200	830	168	82	24	1%	1.8	20.3%	9.9%	10.4%	2.9%	2.72	4.24	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Izaak Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	13.9%	10.6%	2.8%	—	4.94	16.6%	6.4%	203	-0.25	—	—	—
Yoely Bello L 2015 · 4.16 FIP	24	SU	4.16	13.8%	9.1%	1.9%	.254	5.03	10.8%	-1.6%	35	+0.87	4.16	103	88
Jordan Harrison L 2015 · 4.04 FIP	24	SU	4.04	15.6%	9.0%	2.0%	.263	4.14	16.3%	0.5%	152	+0.10	3.80	244	86
Haylen Green L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	24	SU	4.02	16.9%	8.1%	2.4%	.291	4.09	18.6%	7.8%	49	+0.07	4.02	104	84
Gerardo Concepción L 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	16.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.53	104	84
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	84
Andre Wheeler L 2016 · 5.25 FIP	24	SU	5.25	17.5%	12.1%	3.8%	.347	5.01	14.4%	2.4%	29	-0.24	3.82	150	84
Stephen Peterson L 2015 · 4.59 FIP	27	SU	4.59	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.55	3.04	120	84
Daniel Gibson L 2016 · 4.30 FIP	24	SU	4.30	14.7%	10.3%	2.1%	.309	4.12	15.6%	4.3%	63	-0.18	2.95	159	84
Bryan Harper L 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	15.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.236	4.38	17.1%	5.3%	92	-0.52	4.13	133	84
Joe Kemlage L 2023 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.6%	11.7%	4.1%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	128	83
Jordan Mills L 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	13.9%	12.7%	1.4%	.323	2.72	18.6%	10.0%	114	-1.56	2.64	210	83
Steve Ascher L 2016 · 4.14 FIP	22	SU	4.14	13.3%	9.5%	1.8%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	151	83
Cam Alldred L 2019 · 4.61 FIP	23	SU	4.61	18.1%	11.0%	3.0%	.323	4.24	18.5%	7.9%	132	-0.37	3.70	332	83
Kelly Secrest L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	18.6%	13.7%	2.1%	.267	3.47	20.8%	10.4%	38	-0.95	3.11	151	82
Ivan Salas L 2015 · 4.28 FIP	24	SU	4.28	14.7%	12.1%	1.6%	.269	3.62	13.7%	6.1%	67	-0.66	3.18	112	82
Shane McCain L 2016 · 4.48 FIP	24	SU	4.48	18.3%	8.7%	3.3%	.261	5.14	14.2%	10.7%	51	+0.66	4.34	201	82
Will Mabrey L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	22	SU	4.27	18.5%	12.6%	2.1%	.256	4.27	19.2%	6.6%	62	+0.00	4.14	128	82
Luis Rico L 2017 · 4.30 FIP	23	SU	4.30	17.1%	10.8%	2.3%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	199	82
Felix Carvallo L 2016 · 4.60 FIP	22	SU	4.60	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	132	81
Winston Lavendier L 2017 · 5.06 FIP	24	SU	5.06	17.8%	12.9%	3.4%	.344	4.94	14.2%	4.7%	21	-0.12	2.98	179	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	16.2%	10.3%	1.11	5.00
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58