Alfred Morillo

P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+ARI	34	37	2.41	3.42	29.2%	13.6%	—	K 22.5% · BB 15.7% · FIP 4.71
2025	23	MIX2 levels	45	60	4.92	3.23	22.1%	12.5%	—	K 18.4% · BB 12.3% · FIP 3.54
2026	24	AAARI	47	50	5.90	4.47	23.4%	12.6%	—	K 19.0% · BB 13.8% · FIP 5.18
2027PROJ	25	MLBARI	34	36	5.04	5.04	19.1%	13.0%	-0.2
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBARI	23	24	4.94	4.92	20.0%	12.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBARI	32	34	4.91	4.92	20.2%	12.4%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsFrancisco Del Rosario (age 25) · Rhiner Cruz (age 25) · Kevin Kopps (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.04

FIP5.04

K%19.1%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%6.1%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	38	174	50	21	1	0%	1.5	20.7%	14.0%	6.7%	0.7%	4.54	3.53	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	38	174	50	21	1	0%	1.5	28.7%	12.1%	16.7%	0.6%	4.54	2.46	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	48	234	62	33	2	0%	1.2	19.8%	16.6%	3.2%	1.1%	4.50	4.14	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	48	234	62	33	2	0%	1.2	26.5%	14.1%	12.4%	0.9%	4.50	3.12	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	34	0	37	154	45	21	3	0%	1.1	22.5%	15.7%	6.8%	2.8%	2.41	4.71	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	34	0	37	154	45	21	3	0%	1.1	22.5%	15.7%	6.8%	2.8%	2.41	4.71	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	34	0	37	154	45	21	3	0%	1.1	29.2%	13.6%	15.6%	1.9%	2.41	3.42	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	60	271	60	34	2	0%	1.3	18.4%	12.3%	6.0%	0.8%	4.92	3.54	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	60	271	60	34	2	0%	1.3	18.4%	12.3%	6.0%	0.8%	4.92	3.54	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	60	271	60	34	2	0%	1.3	22.1%	12.5%	9.6%	0.7%	4.92	3.23	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	47	0	50	239	56	30	7	0%	1.1	19.0%	13.8%	5.2%	3.5%	5.90	5.18	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	47	0	50	239	56	30	7	0%	1.1	19.0%	13.8%	5.2%	3.5%	5.90	5.18	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	47	0	50	239	56	30	7	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.6%	10.9%	2.9%	5.90	4.47	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	ARI	34	0	36	152	29	20	4	0%	1.1	19.1%	13.0%	6.1%	2.8%	5.04	5.04	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	52	0	54	229	46	29	6	0%	1.0	20.0%	12.6%	7.4%	2.8%	4.94	4.92	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	ARI	51	0	54	226	46	28	6	0%	1.0	20.2%	12.4%	7.9%	2.9%	4.91	4.92	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	23	0	24	101	20	13	3	0%	1.0	20.0%	12.6%	7.4%	2.8%	4.94	4.92	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	ARI	32	0	34	144	29	18	4	0%	1.1	20.2%	12.4%	7.9%	2.9%	4.91	4.92	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	0	58	244	49	30	7	0%	1.0	20.1%	12.5%	7.7%	2.8%	4.92	4.54	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	170	104	24	0%	1.1	20.1%	12.5%	7.7%	2.8%	4.92	4.54	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		191	0	234	1072	212	154	19	0%	1.2	19.8%	14.3%	5.4%	1.7%	4.58	4.20	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		163	0	200	918	182	132	16	0%	1.2	19.8%	14.3%	5.4%	1.7%	4.58	4.20	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alfred Morillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.04	19.1%	13.0%	2.8%	—	4.92	20.1%	7.6%	108	-0.12	—	—	—
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	91
Rhiner Cruz R 2012 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	18.2%	11.5%	3.2%	.335	4.81	10.2%	-1.0%	21	+0.01	3.21	127	90
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	89
Vinnie Chulk R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	17.7%	10.5%	2.4%	.308	3.95	16.9%	9.6%	171	-0.31	2.97	271	89
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	89
Esmerling Vasquez R 2009 · 3.86 FIP	25	SU	3.86	18.9%	11.3%	1.7%	.296	4.30	17.3%	4.7%	116	+0.44	3.70	204	88
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	88
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	88
Morgan McSweeney R 2023 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.1%	12.6%	3.7%	.256	3.56	16.9%	9.7%	85	-1.57	3.20	213	87
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	87
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	87
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	87
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	86
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	86
Scott Oberg R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	17.0%	11.2%	3.4%	.273	2.92	22.8%	15.6%	188	-2.04	2.54	302	86
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	86
Billy Seidl R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	18.3%	14.2%	2.2%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	102	86
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	86
Will Latcham R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	25	SU	4.30	18.8%	11.5%	2.4%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	134	86
Tyler Mitzel R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	20.8%	12.0%	2.1%	.323	4.14	23.4%	17.9%	58	+0.11	4.03	142	86

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	19.9%	12.6%	1.09	4.95
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68