Christian Montes De Oca
P
Reno Aces
Age 26
RHP
6'4" / 230 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 98
ERA4.30
FIP4.30
K%20.8%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%12.6%
ROS IP22
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB+0.9 (61%)
SL+0.5 (30%)
CH (9%)
SI (26%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 40 | 174 | 71 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.9% | 8.0% | 23.0% | 4.4% | 2.95 | 3.93 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 40 | 174 | 71 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 40.8% | 6.9% | 33.9% | 2.9% | 2.95 | 2.07 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 56 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.4 | 17.4% | 10.7% | 6.7% | 1.6% | 4.82 | 3.90 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 56 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.4% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 4.82 | 4.40 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 61 | 273 | 53 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 16.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 2.4% | 4.87 | 4.04 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 61 | 273 | 53 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 12.5% | 2.6% | 4.87 | 3.79 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 0 | 27 | 111 | 28 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.4% | 6.2% | 16.3% | 2.7% | 3.67 | 3.45 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 0 | 27 | 111 | 28 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.2% | 6.3% | 18.9% | 1.8% | 3.67 | 2.77 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 0 | 22 | 95 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 8.2% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 12 | 49 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.3% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 2.3% | 3.36 | 3.71 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 165 | 0 | 200 | 807 | 166 | 66 | 17 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.3% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 2.3% | 3.36 | 3.71 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 145 | 0 | 189 | 820 | 168 | 70 | 22 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.5% | 8.5% | 12.0% | 2.6% | 4.28 | 3.89 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 153 | 0 | 200 | 866 | 178 | 74 | 23 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.5% | 8.5% | 12.0% | 2.6% | 4.28 | 3.89 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Christian Montes De Oca (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 20.8% | 8.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.34 | 21.1% | 12.7% | 22 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 87 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.07 | 2.96 | 114 | 84 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 83 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.15 | 25.0% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .289 | 4.73 | 28.3% | 17.6% | 151 | +1.58 | 3.15 | 220 | 83 |
| Rob Scahill R 2028 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.34 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.49 | 2.93 | 201 | 82 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .310 | 4.40 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | +0.04 | 3.42 | 161 | 82 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 121 | 82 |
| Seth Frankoff R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 19.6% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .312 | 4.49 | 20.0% | 11.3% | 177 | +0.45 | 2.87 | 263 | 80 |
| Jason Ruffcorn R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .255 | 4.64 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 100 | +0.67 | 3.97 | 248 | 80 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.1% | .282 | 3.23 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -0.88 | 1.79 | 647 | 80 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.02 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.56 | 2.69 | 315 | 80 |
| Kelly Austin R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.58 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.1% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 119 | 80 |
| Esmerling De La Rosa R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.25 | 20.5% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .313 | 5.21 | 14.1% | 5.8% | 66 | +1.96 | 2.98 | 237 | 80 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2029 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 80 |
| Zach Bryant R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.82 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 3.7% | .313 | 4.72 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 84 | -0.10 | 4.36 | 194 | 80 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.52 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .243 | 3.63 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -0.89 | 3.56 | 198 | 80 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.77 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .242 | 3.56 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 100 | -0.21 | 3.05 | 205 | 79 |
| Chuck King R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.21 | 19.4% | 9.9% | 0.9% | .308 | 4.38 | 16.6% | 8.4% | 199 | +1.17 | 3.21 | 237 | 79 |
| Jack Dallas R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.1% | .292 | 5.11 | 20.4% | 15.3% | 41 | +1.57 | 3.08 | 210 | 79 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 79 |