Christian Montes De Oca

Christian Montes De Oca P Reno Aces

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 19 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.26

FIP4.26

K%20.3%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%13.3%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

FB+0.9 (61%)

SL+0.5 (30%)

CH (9%)

SI (26%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	40	174	71	12	5	0%	1.2	30.9%	8.0%	23.0%	3.9%	2.95	3.67	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	40	174	71	12	5	0%	1.2	40.8%	6.9%	33.9%	2.9%	2.95	2.07	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	62	262	56	25	9	0%	1.4	17.4%	10.7%	6.7%	2.3%	4.82	4.25	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	62	262	56	25	9	0%	1.4	21.4%	9.5%	11.8%	3.4%	4.82	4.40	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	61	273	53	19	7	0%	1.2	15.7%	6.7%	9.1%	2.7%	4.87	4.08	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	61	273	53	19	7	0%	1.2	15.7%	6.7%	9.1%	2.7%	4.87	4.08	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	61	273	53	19	7	0%	1.2	19.4%	7.0%	12.5%	2.6%	4.87	3.79	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	27	111	28	7	2	0%	1.5	21.9%	5.3%	16.6%	2.4%	3.67	3.23	+0.4
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	27	111	28	7	2	0%	1.5	21.9%	5.3%	16.6%	2.4%	3.67	3.23	+0.4
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	27	111	28	7	2	0%	1.5	25.2%	6.3%	18.9%	1.8%	3.67	2.77	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	3	9	2	1	0	0%	2.7	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.73	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	ARI	18	0	19	80	16	6	2	0%	1.1	20.3%	7.0%	13.3%	2.9%	4.26	4.26	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	ARI	19	0	20	84	17	6	3	0%	1.1	20.5%	7.4%	13.1%	3.0%	4.32	4.35	+0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	ARI	9	0	9	38	8	3	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	7.4%	13.1%	3.0%	4.32	4.35	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	11	45	9	4	1	0%	1.2	20.8%	8.1%	12.7%	2.4%	3.29	3.70	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		163	0	200	804	161	72	18	0%	1.2	20.8%	8.1%	12.7%	2.4%	3.29	3.70	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		145	0	189	820	167	66	23	0%	1.3	20.3%	8.1%	12.3%	2.8%	4.28	3.93	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	0	200	866	176	70	24	0%	1.3	20.3%	8.1%	12.3%	2.8%	4.28	3.93	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Montes De Oca (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.26	20.3%	7.0%	2.9%	—	4.35	20.5%	13.1%	20	+0.09	—	—	—
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	88
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	88
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	86
Josh Lueke R 2011 · 3.24 FIP	26	SU	3.24	20.4%	8.5%	1.4%	.323	4.75	18.7%	12.4%	52	+1.51	2.29	191	85
Santiago Casilla R 2007 · 3.58 FIP	27	SU	3.58	23.7%	7.8%	2.7%	.257	3.60	19.8%	10.7%	154	+0.02	2.76	647	85
Cristhian Martinez R 2009 · 3.51 FIP	27	SU	3.51	16.1%	6.2%	1.8%	.294	3.46	19.8%	14.7%	177	-0.05	3.09	204	84
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	83
Heath Hembree R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	27	SU	3.74	21.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.292	4.03	27.3%	18.8%	162	+0.29	2.52	382	83
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	83
Andrew Robinson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	17.6%	6.3%	2.5%	.246	3.64	22.7%	14.4%	97	-0.13	3.19	160	83
Gus Schlosser R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	27	SU	3.92	18.7%	5.6%	3.1%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	107	82
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2011 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	22.1%	9.6%	1.5%	.253	3.18	22.9%	13.4%	218	-0.10	2.72	398	82
Ryan Kelly R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	20.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.241	3.21	20.8%	14.2%	43	-0.31	2.49	131	82
Chris Martin R 2014 · 3.53 FIP	28	SU	3.53	20.3%	5.8%	2.6%	.408	3.24	18.1%	11.1%	49	-0.29	1.76	431	82
J.J. Putz R 2004 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	17.1%	7.3%	3.6%	.283	2.58	28.5%	23.0%	210	-1.99	1.43	563	82
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	82
Jack Hartman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	26	SU	4.34	20.9%	8.8%	3.4%	.310	4.29	17.6%	5.6%	46	-0.05	3.46	161	82
Jason Motte R 2009 · 4.62 FIP	27	SU	4.62	22.1%	9.0%	4.1%	.297	2.84	26.9%	21.0%	192	-1.78	2.22	387	81
Brandon Kintzler R 2012 · 3.24 FIP	27	SU	3.24	19.4%	8.3%	1.3%	.333	3.19	16.3%	11.3%	154	-0.05	2.42	498	81
Conor Mullee R 2015 · 3.26 FIP	27	SU	3.26	17.7%	7.2%	1.4%	.290	2.64	24.2%	16.3%	55	-0.62	2.17	110	81