Christian Becerra

Christian Becerra P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.59

FIP5.59

K%10.1%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%-1.3%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL4545

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	2	0	4	16	4	3	0	0%	1.8	25.0%	18.8%	6.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.36	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	2	0	4	16	4	3	0	0%	1.8	25.0%	18.8%	6.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.36	—
2024	21	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	2	0	4	16	4	3	0	0%	1.8	25.0%	18.8%	6.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.37	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	9	54	219	35	16	1	60%	3.6	11.0%	9.3%	1.6%	0.7%	2.85	3.75	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	9	54	219	35	16	1	60%	3.6	11.0%	9.3%	1.6%	0.7%	2.85	3.75	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	9	54	219	35	16	1	60%	3.6	16.0%	7.3%	8.7%	0.5%	2.85	2.93	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	33	1	48	230	45	27	6	3%	1.5	15.1%	13.5%	1.6%	3.3%	6.75	5.33	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	33	1	48	230	45	27	6	3%	1.5	15.1%	13.5%	1.6%	3.3%	6.75	5.33	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	MIN	33	1	48	230	45	27	6	3%	1.5	19.6%	11.7%	7.8%	2.6%	6.75	4.37	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIN	51	0	54	227	30	25	6	0%	1.1	13.2%	11.0%	2.2%	2.8%	5.35	5.27	-0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	52	0	54	230	35	25	6	0%	1.0	15.0%	10.7%	4.3%	2.8%	5.16	5.09	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIN	22	0	23	97	13	11	3	0%	1.0	13.2%	11.0%	2.2%	2.8%	5.35	5.27	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	34	0	36	152	23	16	4	0%	1.1	15.0%	10.7%	4.3%	2.8%	5.16	5.09	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	250	36	27	7	0%	1.1	14.3%	10.8%	3.5%	2.8%	5.23	4.78	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	122	91	24	0%	1.1	14.3%	10.8%	3.5%	2.8%	5.23	4.78	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		50	10	105	465	63	55	9	20%	2.1	13.5%	11.7%	1.8%	2.0%	4.53	4.52	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		95	19	200	883	119	104	17	20%	2.1	13.5%	11.7%	1.8%	2.0%	4.53	4.52	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Becerra (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.59	10.1%	11.4%	2.8%	—	5.18	14.1%	3.2%	108	-0.41	—	—	—
Rogelio Martinez R 2015 · 5.25 FIP	23	SU	5.25	10.0%	9.7%	3.2%	.304	5.20	11.6%	4.4%	73	-0.05	5.20	152	91
Raul Carrillo R 2015 · 5.26 FIP	23	SW	5.26	11.1%	11.2%	3.1%	.364	4.56	10.8%	1.4%	169	-0.70	4.40	348	88
Kelvis Valerio R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	23	SU	4.53	12.9%	10.3%	2.2%	.312	4.18	11.4%	4.0%	190	-0.35	4.14	266	86
Eli Saul R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	21	SW	5.41	12.6%	14.2%	2.9%	.305	5.39	13.8%	-2.9%	98	-0.02	5.30	157	85
Juan Perez R 2017 · 4.52 FIP	22	SW	4.52	10.8%	10.8%	1.8%	.230	—	—	—	—	—	4.52	113	85
Ignacio Marrujo R 2016 · 5.73 FIP	23	SW	5.73	8.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.284	6.48	9.5%	0.3%	40	+0.75	4.32	150	85
Zach Nuding R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.236	5.03	12.6%	3.3%	106	+0.27	4.76	146	84
Everhett Hazelwood R 2022 · 5.23 FIP	23	SU	5.23	13.8%	12.2%	3.2%	.306	6.51	18.7%	2.9%	63	+1.28	5.23	117	84
Dylan Rheault R 2015 · 5.75 FIP	23	SU	5.75	6.5%	14.9%	2.4%	.288	4.11	14.1%	4.8%	96	-1.64	3.88	198	83
Alexis Rivero R 2018 · 4.94 FIP	23	SU	4.94	13.2%	11.6%	2.7%	.261	6.43	12.9%	3.3%	24	+1.49	3.86	280	83
Kevin Johnson R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	11.0%	8.5%	2.6%	.302	5.52	9.9%	-2.0%	26	+0.83	4.69	106	83
Brady Dragmire R 2016 · 5.09 FIP	23	SU	5.09	10.6%	9.9%	3.0%	.292	4.51	10.9%	3.8%	256	-0.58	3.05	391	83
Jack Jasiak R 2023 · 5.03 FIP	22	SU	5.03	12.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.288	3.81	19.8%	12.1%	193	-1.22	3.24	262	83
Mark Peterson R 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SU	4.89	11.5%	8.5%	3.1%	.277	4.71	15.9%	5.6%	112	-0.18	4.65	185	82
Zac Reininger R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	22	SU	4.92	11.8%	9.8%	2.9%	.286	3.34	21.1%	13.6%	125	-1.58	2.58	259	82
Jacinto Arredondo R 2021 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	14.4%	12.7%	2.6%	.310	4.89	15.7%	5.0%	50	-0.04	4.89	101	82
Cole Percival R 2022 · 5.21 FIP	23	SU	5.21	15.4%	14.5%	2.9%	.297	4.27	17.9%	5.9%	182	-0.94	3.58	327	82
Simon Mercedes R 2015 · 4.86 FIP	23	SU	4.86	14.3%	11.7%	2.7%	.309	4.94	16.4%	3.9%	60	+0.08	4.86	139	81
John Kuchno R 2015 · 5.44 FIP	24	SU	5.44	8.9%	8.7%	3.6%	.247	5.14	10.2%	1.6%	84	-0.30	2.43	162	81
Jake McCasland R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	23	SU	4.78	14.2%	9.8%	3.0%	.348	3.80	15.8%	8.2%	317	-0.98	3.07	367	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	12.8%	11.1%	1.07	5.36
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77