Christian Becerra
P
Cedar Rapids Kernels
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 170 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146136vR 127
ERA5.64
FIP5.64
K%10.1%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%-1.7%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 25.0% | 18.8% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.36 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 25.0% | 18.8% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.37 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 9 | 54 | 219 | 35 | 16 | 1 | 60% | 3.6 | 11.0% | 9.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 2.85 | 3.80 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 9 | 54 | 219 | 35 | 16 | 1 | 60% | 3.6 | 16.0% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 0.5% | 2.85 | 2.93 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 19 | 0 | 28 | 130 | 23 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 13.6% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 5.86 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIN | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 22 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.1% | 11.8% | -1.7% | 2.8% | 5.64 | 5.64 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10.1% | 11.8% | -1.7% | 2.8% | 5.64 | 5.64 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 80 | 351 | 45 | 38 | 8 | — | — | 12.9% | 10.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 5.71 | 5.19 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 10.1% | 11.8% | -1.7% | 2.8% | 5.64 | 5.26 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 30 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.2% | 11.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 5.40 | 5.32 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 35 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.0% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 5.21 | 5.13 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.2% | 11.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 5.40 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 23 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.0% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 5.21 | 5.13 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 57 | 0 | 59 | 251 | 36 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.3% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 5.29 | 4.82 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 121 | 94 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.3% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 5.29 | 4.82 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 36 | 9 | 85 | 365 | 46 | 37 | 4 | 25% | 2.4 | 12.5% | 10.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 3.71 | 3.98 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 21 | 200 | 859 | 108 | 88 | 10 | 25% | 2.4 | 12.5% | 10.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 3.71 | 3.98 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Christian Becerra (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.64 | 10.1% | 11.8% | 2.8% | — | 5.22 | 14.1% | 2.9% | 108 | -0.42 | — | — | — |
| Rogelio Martinez R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.15 | 10.0% | 9.7% | 3.0% | .304 | 5.56 | 11.6% | 4.4% | 73 | +0.41 | 5.15 | 152 | 88 |
| Juan Perez R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.63 | 10.8% | 10.8% | 2.0% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 113 | 86 |
| Kelvis Valerio R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.80 | 12.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .312 | 4.08 | 11.4% | 4.0% | 190 | -0.72 | 4.03 | 266 | 85 |
| Raul Carrillo R 2026 · 5.57 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.57 | 11.1% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .364 | 4.54 | 10.8% | 1.4% | 169 | -1.03 | 4.33 | 348 | 85 |
| Ignacio Marrujo R 2026 · 5.74 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.74 | 8.0% | 10.1% | 3.7% | .284 | 6.72 | 9.5% | 0.3% | 40 | +0.98 | 4.42 | 150 | 84 |
| Daniel Concepcion R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.38 | 13.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 110 | 84 |
| Ian Villers R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.59 | 13.2% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .311 | 4.12 | 15.6% | 5.2% | 59 | -0.47 | 4.12 | 107 | 84 |
| Kevin Johnson R 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.59 | 11.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.48 | 9.9% | -2.0% | 26 | +0.89 | 4.59 | 106 | 83 |
| Wirkin Estevez R 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.36 | 10.7% | 13.4% | 2.7% | .316 | 4.42 | 12.3% | 3.5% | 179 | -0.94 | 4.24 | 238 | 82 |
| Cole Percival R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.20 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.19 | 17.9% | 5.9% | 182 | -1.01 | 3.59 | 327 | 82 |
| Alexis Rivero R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.75 | 13.2% | 11.6% | 2.4% | .261 | 7.01 | 12.9% | 3.3% | 24 | +2.26 | 3.75 | 280 | 81 |
| Cooper Adams R 2027 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.35 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .275 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 118 | -1.43 | 2.99 | 197 | 81 |
| Zach Nuding R 2028 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.09 | 12.5% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .236 | 4.99 | 12.6% | 3.3% | 106 | -0.10 | 4.99 | 146 | 81 |
| Dylan Rheault R 2026 · 5.57 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.57 | 6.5% | 14.9% | 2.1% | .288 | 4.14 | 14.1% | 4.8% | 96 | -1.43 | 3.96 | 198 | 81 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.50 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .286 | 4.16 | 16.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.34 | 3.28 | 252 | 81 |
| Zach Mort R 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.14 | 10.7% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .240 | 5.35 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 176 | +0.21 | 5.14 | 237 | 81 |
| Everhett Hazelwood R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.32 | 13.8% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .306 | 6.84 | 18.7% | 2.9% | 63 | +1.52 | 5.32 | 117 | 80 |
| Chance Huff R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.78 | 11.8% | 11.4% | 4.1% | .312 | 5.14 | 15.7% | -0.0% | 151 | -0.64 | 4.35 | 235 | 80 |
| Simon Mercedes R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.87 | 14.3% | 11.7% | 2.7% | .309 | 5.14 | 16.4% | 3.9% | 60 | +0.27 | 4.87 | 139 | 79 |
| Brady Dragmire R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.78 | 10.6% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .292 | 4.44 | 10.9% | 3.8% | 256 | -0.34 | 3.04 | 391 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 54 | 12.8% | 11.4% | 1.07 | 5.41 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |