Jackson Kent

P Rochester Red Wings

Age 24 LHP 6'3" / 219 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.7 · 2029

Overview

AAASP40-MANROOKIEFG #228Pre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	24	24	123	4.61	3.36	25.9%	7.5%	—	K 20.2% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.39
2026	23	MIX3 levels	28	27	131	4.34	3.57	24.3%	9.7%	2.1	K 21.3% · BB 9.5% · FIP 3.92
2027PROJ	24	MLBWSH	27	27	151	4.46	4.42	20.5%	9.1%	0.8
2028PROJ68% MLB	25	MLBWSH	19	19	111	4.36	4.30	21.3%	8.6%	0.8
2029PROJ80% MLB	26	MLBWSH	23	23	137	4.30	4.26	21.6%	8.5%	1.0

Last 2 seasons WAR 2.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.000First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$7M2030Arb-2$12M2031Arb-3$16M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Whiff%40

FB Velo30

K%18

xwOBA vs15

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 21, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 70%

CompsMarc Rzepczynski (age 24) · Austin Emener (age 22) · Cliff Lee (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.46

FIP4.42

K%20.5%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%11.4%

Proj IP151

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 151 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL2550

CMD4555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p4023.8%

p1817.6%

xwOBA vs

p150.353

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$7M	+1.0	$7M	+$1M
2030	Arb-2	$12M	+1.0	$6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$16M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$9M		$20M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	123	509	132	38	14	100%	5.1	20.2%	8.5%	11.8%	3.5%	4.61	4.39	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	123	509	132	38	14	100%	5.1	20.2%	8.5%	11.8%	3.5%	4.61	4.39	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	123	509	132	38	14	100%	5.1	25.9%	7.5%	18.5%	2.8%	4.61	3.36	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	27	131	556	135	54	13	96%	4.7	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	2.6%	4.34	3.92	+1.5
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	27	131	556	135	54	13	96%	4.7	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	2.6%	4.34	3.92	+1.5
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	27	131	556	135	54	13	96%	4.7	24.3%	9.7%	14.6%	2.3%	4.34	3.57	+2.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	7	36	170	30	25	2	88%	4.5	17.6%	14.7%	2.9%	1.2%	5.94	4.23	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	WSH	27	27	151	638	131	58	18	100%	5.6	20.5%	9.1%	11.4%	2.8%	4.46	4.42	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	28	28	165	695	148	60	19	100%	5.9	21.3%	8.6%	12.7%	2.8%	4.36	4.30	+1.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	29	29	172	725	157	62	20	100%	5.9	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	2.8%	4.30	4.26	+1.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	29	29	173	730	158	62	21	100%	6.0	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	2.9%	4.30	4.30	+1.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	29	29	173	730	157	63	22	100%	6.0	21.5%	8.7%	12.9%	3.0%	4.35	4.38	+1.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	28	28	165	698	146	62	22	100%	5.9	20.9%	8.9%	12.0%	3.1%	4.47	4.54	+0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	26	26	155	656	133	60	22	100%	6.0	20.2%	9.2%	11.0%	3.3%	4.64	4.75	+0.3
2034	31	MLB MLE	WSH	24	24	145	611	119	58	22	100%	6.0	19.5%	9.6%	9.9%	3.5%	4.85	4.98	-0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	134	565	106	56	21	100%	6.1	18.7%	10.0%	8.7%	3.8%	5.08	5.24	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	19	19	111	469	100	40	13	100%	5.8	21.3%	8.6%	12.7%	2.8%	4.36	4.30	+0.8
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	23	23	137	578	125	49	16	100%	6.0	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	2.8%	4.30	4.26	+1.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	25	25	148	625	135	53	18	100%	5.9	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	2.9%	4.30	4.30	+1.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	26	26	154	650	140	56	19	100%	5.9	21.5%	8.7%	12.9%	3.0%	4.35	4.38	+0.9
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	25	25	150	633	133	56	20	100%	6.0	20.9%	8.9%	12.0%	3.1%	4.47	4.54	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	24	24	143	604	122	56	20	100%	6.0	20.2%	9.2%	11.0%	3.3%	4.64	4.75	+0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	WSH	22	22	135	570	111	54	20	100%	6.1	19.5%	9.6%	9.9%	3.5%	4.85	4.98	-0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	WSH	21	21	126	532	99	53	20	100%	6.0	18.7%	10.0%	8.7%	3.8%	5.08	5.24	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		193	192	1141	4835	996	444	148	99%	5.9	20.6%	9.2%	11.4%	3.1%	4.58	4.21	+9.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	847	175	78	26	99%	5.9	20.6%	9.2%	11.4%	3.1%	4.58	4.21	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		52	51	254	1065	221	96	32	98%	4.9	20.8%	9.0%	11.8%	3.0%	4.47	4.15	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	40	200	840	175	75	25	98%	4.9	20.8%	9.0%	11.8%	3.0%	4.47	4.15	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Kent (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.42	20.5%	9.1%	2.8%	—	4.29	21.5%	13.0%	509	-0.13	—	—	—
Marc Rzepczynski L 2010 · 4.23 FIP	24	SP	4.23	19.9%	10.1%	2.8%	.332	3.54	21.2%	13.0%	139	-0.69	2.43	491	85
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	83
Cliff Lee L 2003 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	21.0%	9.0%	3.3%	.243	4.34	17.2%	9.8%	582	+0.03	2.49	2,146	83
J.C. Romero L 2000 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP	4.58	18.7%	11.2%	3.0%	.356	3.98	18.2%	8.4%	209	-0.60	2.88	652	83
Andy Oliver L 2010 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP	4.66	17.6%	10.8%	3.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	187	82
David Purcey L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	20.1%	10.0%	3.1%	.301	4.39	17.9%	5.0%	116	-0.00	3.60	206	82
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.29	19.3%	13.9%	222	-0.12	3.22	285	80
Joe Saunders L 2006 · 3.94 FIP	25	SP	3.94	16.9%	9.3%	2.0%	.300	4.48	13.1%	6.1%	491	+0.54	3.86	1,378	80
Aríel Miranda L 2015 · 3.46 FIP	26	SP	3.46	18.3%	10.2%	1.1%	.280	5.12	19.2%	10.2%	364	+1.66	3.46	431	79
John Gast L 2013 · 4.15 FIP	24	SP	4.15	15.4%	9.6%	2.1%	.263	3.96	14.1%	6.2%	122	-0.19	3.96	134	78
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	77
Nate Robertson L 2003 · 4.66 FIP	25	SP	4.66	16.3%	10.3%	3.0%	.343	4.54	16.1%	8.6%	602	-0.12	4.13	1,144	77
Christian Friedrich L 2012 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	19.6%	8.0%	3.3%	.340	3.59	19.0%	10.6%	83	-0.67	3.39	297	77
Cory Luebke L 2010 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP-	4.21	23.7%	7.9%	3.9%	.286	2.84	25.9%	18.7%	171	-1.37	2.80	216	76
Jacob Latz L 2019 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	23.0%	12.6%	1.1%	.222	5.12	22.8%	10.7%	149	+1.77	2.39	480	76
Nick Bierbrodt L 2001 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP	5.15	18.8%	9.8%	4.4%	.318	6.19	12.8%	-1.6%	60	+1.04	5.15	145	76
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	76
Brandon Claussen L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.314	4.56	16.5%	9.2%	244	-0.24	4.41	310	76
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	75
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.3	147	20.7%	9.1%	1.17	4.55
Elmer Knetzer ('09-'17, 6 WAR*)	6.3	158	19.4%*	9.7%*	1.10*	4.40*
Steve Stone ('71-'81, 16 WAR*)	8.9	163	21.3%*	9.2%*	1.34*	4.35*
Kyle Gibson ('25)	9.4	156	18.8%	8.2%	1.12	4.60
Hugh McQuillan ('18-'27, 11 WAR*)	7.8	174	18.0%*	9.0%*	1.15*	4.48*
J.A. Happ ('21)	9.5	135	20.6%	8.3%	1.24	4.13
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30