Luis Gastelum

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 175 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIEFG #781Pre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	32	51	2.65	1.85	34.4%	4.7%	—	K 25.5% · BB 5.8% · FIP 3.04
2025	23	AASTL	46	63	4.02	1.60	35.4%	6.5%	—	K 28.7% · BB 7.2% · FIP 2.28
2026	24	MIX2 levels	70	80	3.25	3.16	28.4%	8.9%	1.3	K 26.3% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.39
2027PROJ	25	MLBSTL	61	64	3.86	3.76	27.6%	7.3%	0.6
2028PROJ68% MLB	26	MLBSTL	47	49	3.72	3.67	27.4%	7.5%	0.4
2029PROJ78% MLB	27	MLBSTL	53	56	3.75	3.75	27.0%	7.7%	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.000First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$2M2030Arb-2$3M2031Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Whiff%90

K%86

FB Velo44

xwOBA vs37

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 83%

CompsMitchell Stumpo (age 25) · Victor Zambrano (age 25) · Nolan Clenney (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA3.86

FIP3.76

K%27.6%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%20.2%

Proj IP64

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CTRL5055

CMD5055

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p9034.7%

p8628.9%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.3M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.3M
2030	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$3M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	26	121	26	4	3	0%	1.5	17.4%	4.8%	12.6%	1.8%	4.78	3.22	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	26	121	26	4	3	0%	1.5	21.5%	3.3%	18.2%	2.5%	4.78	3.06	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	51	212	73	10	4	0%	1.6	25.5%	5.8%	19.7%	2.5%	2.65	3.04	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	51	212	73	10	4	0%	1.6	25.5%	5.8%	19.7%	2.5%	2.65	3.04	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	51	212	73	10	4	0%	1.6	34.4%	4.7%	29.7%	1.9%	2.65	1.85	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	46	0	63	260	92	17	3	0%	1.4	28.7%	7.2%	21.5%	1.3%	4.02	2.28	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	46	0	63	260	92	17	3	0%	1.4	28.7%	7.2%	21.5%	1.3%	4.02	2.28	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	46	0	63	260	92	17	3	0%	1.4	35.4%	6.5%	28.8%	1.2%	4.02	1.60	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	80	327	93	29	8	0%	1.1	26.3%	8.3%	18.0%	2.6%	3.25	3.39	+1.1
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	80	327	93	29	8	0%	1.1	26.3%	8.3%	18.0%	2.6%	3.25	3.39	+1.1
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	70	0	80	327	93	29	8	0%	1.1	28.4%	8.9%	19.6%	2.4%	3.25	3.16	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			34	0	37	152	44	12	6	0%	1.1	28.9%	7.9%	21.1%	3.9%	4.42	3.81	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	STL	61	0	64	270	74	20	8	0%	1.0	27.6%	7.3%	20.2%	3.1%	3.86	3.76	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	69	0	72	305	83	23	9	0%	1.0	27.4%	7.5%	19.9%	3.0%	3.84	3.79	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	68	0	71	301	81	23	9	0%	1.0	27.0%	7.7%	19.3%	3.1%	3.87	3.87	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	66	0	69	292	78	23	9	0%	1.0	26.7%	7.9%	18.8%	3.2%	3.94	3.98	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	STL	63	0	66	279	73	23	9	0%	1.0	26.1%	8.2%	17.9%	3.3%	4.07	4.15	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	STL	59	0	62	262	66	22	9	0%	1.1	25.4%	8.5%	16.9%	3.5%	4.24	4.35	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	47	0	49	207	57	15	6	0%	1.0	27.4%	7.5%	19.9%	2.8%	3.72	3.67	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	53	0	56	236	64	18	7	0%	1.1	27.0%	7.7%	19.3%	2.9%	3.75	3.75	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	55	0	58	245	65	19	7	0%	1.1	26.7%	7.9%	18.8%	3.0%	3.82	3.86	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	STL	55	0	58	245	64	20	8	0%	1.1	26.1%	8.2%	17.9%	3.1%	3.94	4.02	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	STL	53	0	56	236	60	20	8	0%	1.1	25.4%	8.5%	16.9%	3.3%	4.10	4.21	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		297	0	313	1320	353	105	41	0%	1.1	26.8%	8.0%	18.8%	3.1%	3.94	3.56	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	843	225	67	26	0%	1.1	26.8%	8.0%	18.8%	3.1%	3.94	3.56	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		166	0	220	920	236	64	19	0%	1.3	25.6%	7.0%	18.7%	2.1%	3.51	2.97	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		151	0	200	835	214	58	18	0%	1.3	25.6%	7.0%	18.7%	2.1%	3.51	2.97	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Gastelum (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.76	27.6%	7.3%	3.1%	—	3.88	27.0%	19.3%	213	+0.12	—	—	—
Mitchell Stumpo R 2021 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	25.6%	8.0%	3.7%	.299	5.27	22.4%	6.8%	121	+1.30	3.97	158	90
Victor Zambrano R 2001 · 3.42 FIP	25	SU	3.42	27.4%	8.5%	2.8%	.246	4.75	16.4%	3.1%	444	+1.33	3.42	706	89
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.35	22.4%	13.7%	185	+0.62	3.73	223	87
Shane Broyles R 2017 · 3.34 FIP	25	SU	3.34	29.9%	7.3%	3.4%	.259	3.89	23.0%	11.7%	54	+0.55	3.34	218	86
James Farris R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	25	SU	3.77	24.4%	6.6%	3.5%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	170	84
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	84
Cam Bedrosian R 2017 · 3.23 FIP	25	SU	3.23	27.9%	8.4%	2.6%	.310	3.65	22.5%	13.3%	140	+0.42	1.79	363	83
Blake Goldsberry R 2022 · 3.43 FIP	25	SU	3.43	23.6%	8.3%	2.3%	.257	5.26	23.6%	12.0%	44	+1.83	3.43	117	83
Josh Martin R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	25	SU	3.16	24.1%	7.4%	2.1%	.257	2.96	20.7%	13.6%	124	-0.20	2.41	225	83
Santiago Casilla R 2007 · 3.58 FIP	27	SU	3.58	23.7%	7.8%	2.7%	.257	3.60	19.8%	10.7%	154	+0.02	2.76	647	82
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	82
Aaron Crow R 2012 · 2.88 FIP	25	SU	2.88	25.0%	7.7%	1.7%	.292	4.93	17.1%	7.9%	107	+2.05	2.88	234	82
Jake Smith R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	25	SU	3.11	28.1%	7.5%	2.6%	.243	4.69	19.3%	-1.7%	26	+1.58	3.11	110	82
Brandon Medders R 2005 · 3.00 FIP	25	SU	3.00	25.4%	9.0%	1.6%	.244	4.71	14.7%	5.3%	121	+1.71	3.00	235	82
Joe Navilhon R 2018 · 3.36 FIP	25	SU	3.36	24.1%	5.5%	2.9%	.333	3.13	22.5%	15.1%	110	-0.23	2.25	273	82
Jose Veras R 2008 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	24.9%	9.1%	2.8%	.281	4.10	23.8%	11.7%	169	+0.43	3.37	422	82
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	82
Rafael Soriano R 2006 · 3.29 FIP	26	SU	3.29	27.0%	8.7%	2.5%	.255	3.12	29.3%	22.6%	162	-0.17	1.48	620	82
Andrew Cashner R 2012 · 3.39 FIP	25	SU	3.39	26.5%	9.2%	2.5%	.306	3.33	19.1%	12.5%	483	-0.06	2.94	1,185	82
Ramon Troncoso R 2008 · 2.65 FIP	25	SU	2.65	23.7%	6.9%	1.2%	.321	3.74	14.8%	8.9%	159	+1.09	2.65	310	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	63	26.9%	7.8%	1.26	4.00
Blake Parker ('21)	1.7	58	26.7%	7.9%	1.30	3.47
Trevor May ('23)	2.3	50	26.8%	8.5%	1.20	4.24
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*
Michael Tonkin ('25)	1.6	55	23.2%	8.1%	1.28	4.23
Barney Schultz ('55-'65, 2 WAR*)	1.7	58	24.6%*	8.3%*	1.28*	3.93*
Joe Sambito ('76-'87, 8 WAR*)	3.1	70	26.8%*	7.5%*	1.06*	3.65*