Andy Rodriguez

P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 182 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	29	39	2.75	3.94	26.0%	10.4%	—	K 18.2% · BB 12.7% · FIP 5.66
2025	23	ATB	39	53	4.61	2.53	16.7%	4.8%	—	K 12.3% · BB 5.7% · FIP 3.05
2026	24	A+TB	22	30	3.86	4.72	18.5%	11.5%	—	K 14.2% · BB 13.3% · FIP 5.69
2027PROJ	25	MLBTB	57	60	5.50	5.50	11.8%	11.0%	-0.6
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBTB	25	26	5.32	5.28	14.1%	10.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBTB	35	37	5.25	5.25	14.7%	10.8%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff25Control55Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsEl'Hajj Muhammad (age 25) · Jonathan Brand (age 24) · Rafael Dolis (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 121

ERA5.50

FIP5.50

K%11.8%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%0.8%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL5555

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 2	10	0	15	63	13	4	1	0%	1.5	14.0%	7.9%	6.1%	2.5%	3.07	4.29	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 2	10	0	15	63	13	4	1	0%	1.5	20.6%	6.3%	14.3%	1.6%	3.07	3.03	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	5	2	16	63	10	6	0	40%	3.1	10.8%	11.9%	-1.1%	0.0%	1.15	3.70	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	5	2	16	63	10	6	0	40%	3.1	15.9%	9.5%	6.3%	0.0%	1.15	2.97	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	7	0	10	44	14	7	0	0%	1.4	31.8%	15.9%	15.9%	0.0%	3.60	2.43	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	7	0	10	44	14	7	0	0%	1.4	31.8%	15.9%	15.9%	0.0%	3.60	2.40	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	39	154	40	16	5	0%	1.4	18.2%	12.7%	5.5%	4.5%	2.75	5.66	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	39	154	40	16	5	0%	1.4	18.2%	12.7%	5.5%	4.5%	2.75	5.66	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	39	154	40	16	5	0%	1.4	26.0%	10.4%	15.6%	3.2%	2.75	3.94	—
2025	23	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	39	0	53	228	38	11	1	0%	1.4	12.3%	5.7%	6.6%	0.5%	4.61	3.05	—
2025	23	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	39	0	53	228	38	11	1	0%	1.4	12.3%	5.7%	6.6%	0.5%	4.61	3.05	—
2025	23	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	39	0	53	228	38	11	1	0%	1.4	16.7%	4.8%	11.8%	0.4%	4.61	2.53	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	0	30	130	24	15	4	0%	1.4	14.2%	13.3%	0.9%	3.8%	3.86	5.69	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	0	30	130	24	15	4	0%	1.4	14.2%	13.3%	0.9%	3.8%	3.86	5.69	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	0	30	130	24	15	4	0%	1.4	18.5%	11.5%	6.9%	3.1%	3.86	4.72	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TB	57	0	60	253	30	28	7	0%	1.1	11.8%	11.0%	0.8%	2.9%	5.50	5.50	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	57	0	60	251	35	27	7	0%	1.0	14.1%	10.8%	3.3%	2.9%	5.32	5.28	-0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	TB	56	0	59	247	36	27	7	0%	1.0	14.7%	10.8%	4.0%	3.0%	5.25	5.25	-0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	25	0	26	110	15	12	3	0%	1.0	14.1%	10.8%	3.3%	2.9%	5.32	5.28	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	TB	35	0	37	156	23	17	5	0%	1.1	14.7%	10.8%	4.0%	3.0%	5.25	5.25	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	264	38	28	8	0%	1.1	14.5%	10.8%	3.7%	3.0%	5.28	4.88	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	122	90	26	0%	1.1	14.5%	10.8%	3.7%	3.0%	5.28	4.88	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		112	2	163	682	104	69	15	2%	1.5	15.3%	10.2%	5.1%	2.2%	3.49	4.28	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		138	2	200	839	128	85	18	2%	1.5	15.3%	10.2%	5.1%	2.2%	3.49	4.28	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andy Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.50	11.8%	11.0%	2.9%	—	5.27	14.4%	3.6%	118	-0.23	—	—	—
El'Hajj Muhammad R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	25	SU	4.58	13.6%	10.0%	2.5%	.285	5.01	7.1%	-2.5%	11	+0.43	4.58	113	89
Jonathan Brand R 2024 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	13.6%	10.6%	2.4%	.284	4.87	22.0%	11.9%	115	+0.26	3.34	198	87
Rafael Dolis R 2012 · 5.19 FIP	24	SU	5.19	13.9%	12.7%	3.0%	.287	4.02	15.8%	1.5%	66	-1.17	2.80	200	87
Zach Nuding R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.236	5.03	12.6%	3.3%	106	+0.27	4.76	146	87
Justin Camp R 2018 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	13.2%	11.9%	1.9%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	140	87
Ian Villers R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	13.2%	11.9%	1.9%	.311	4.23	15.6%	5.2%	59	-0.32	4.23	107	86
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	86
Scott Griggs R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	25	SU	5.11	11.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.278	4.19	19.7%	8.0%	112	-0.92	3.06	176	86
Philip Walby R 2017 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	12.7%	12.0%	1.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	137	86
Aaron Cohn R 2023 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	11.1%	10.7%	4.1%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	5.72	106	86
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	85
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	25	SU	4.59	15.1%	10.4%	2.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	218	85
Starling Peralta R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	9.9%	10.0%	1.7%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	117	85
Robert Coles R 2016 · 4.45 FIP	24	SU	4.45	9.8%	9.4%	1.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.29	109	85
Justin Lehr R 2004 · 4.36 FIP	26	SU	4.36	11.1%	8.3%	2.1%	.283	4.47	15.2%	5.6%	50	+0.11	4.23	148	85
Aaron Fossas R 2018 · 4.33 FIP	25	SU	4.33	11.5%	11.5%	1.4%	.285	3.79	11.8%	3.7%	88	-0.54	2.57	238	84
Bryan Morris R 2013 · 4.78 FIP	26	SU	4.78	13.7%	8.5%	3.2%	.243	3.90	17.7%	9.2%	145	-0.88	3.48	231	84
Conner O'Neil R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	12.8%	13.6%	3.7%	.340	6.92	16.4%	4.1%	26	+1.14	2.89	115	84
Owen Holt R 2024 · 4.52 FIP	25	SU	4.52	15.1%	12.1%	2.1%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	145	83
Mike Hepple R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	25	SU	4.46	11.2%	12.9%	1.2%	.244	5.75	11.1%	-7.4%	59	+1.29	4.46	116	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	13.5%	10.9%	1.15	5.36
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Russ Swan ('89-'94, -2 WAR*)	1.3	89	12.3%*	9.9%*	1.13*	5.09*
Greg Booker ('83-'90, -1 WAR*)	1.3	53	13.3%*	10.2%*	1.07*	4.51*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*