Malik Barrington prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Malik Barrington P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 236 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 45 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%23.1%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%10.2%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	5	0	13	53	22	4	0	0%	2.6	28.2%	9.4%	18.8%	0.0%	3.46	1.91	—
2021	23	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	5	0	13	53	22	4	0	0%	2.6	41.5%	7.5%	34.0%	0.0%	3.46	0.64	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	3	57	238	73	23	4	9%	1.7	23.4%	12.1%	11.3%	1.7%	3.61	3.61	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	3	57	238	73	23	4	9%	1.7	30.7%	9.7%	21.0%	1.7%	3.61	2.66	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	39	0	65	275	80	40	3	0%	1.7	22.4%	16.7%	5.7%	1.2%	4.29	3.99	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	39	0	65	275	80	40	3	0%	1.7	22.4%	16.7%	5.7%	1.2%	4.29	3.99	—
2023	25	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	39	0	65	275	80	40	3	0%	1.7	29.1%	14.5%	14.5%	1.1%	4.29	3.08	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.1%	12.9%	10.2%	2.9%	4.78	4.78	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	MIN	41	0	43	182	41	23	6	0%	1.0	22.9%	12.8%	10.1%	3.1%	4.81	4.86	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	MIN	12	0	13	55	13	7	2	0%	1.1	22.9%	12.8%	10.1%	3.1%	4.81	4.86	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	55	13	7	2	0%	1.1	22.9%	12.8%	10.1%	3.1%	4.81	4.48	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	200	108	31	0%	1.1	22.9%	12.8%	10.1%	3.1%	4.81	4.48	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		77	3	135	566	132	80	7	4%	1.8	23.3%	14.1%	9.3%	1.3%	3.92	3.63	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		114	4	200	836	195	118	11	4%	1.8	23.3%	14.1%	9.3%	1.3%	3.92	3.63	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Malik Barrington (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	23.1%	12.9%	2.9%	—	4.86	22.9%	10.1%	43	+0.08	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	87
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	86
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	85
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	85
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	83
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	83
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	82
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	82
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	82
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	82
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	81
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	81
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	80
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	80
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	80
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	80
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	80
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	79
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	79
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	27	SU	4.76	23.0%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.18	3.73	223	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	44	23.0%	12.8%	1.16	4.79
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82