Jackson Hicks prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jackson Hicks P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 34 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.40

FIP4.40

K%23.2%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	2	14	67	16	3	0	33%	2.3	16.7%	3.8%	12.9%	0.0%	7.71	2.17	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	2	14	67	16	3	0	33%	2.3	23.9%	4.5%	19.4%	0.0%	7.71	1.46	—
2022	24	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	36	0	51	225	58	21	3	0%	1.4	19.1%	11.0%	8.1%	1.7%	2.98	3.84	—
2022	24	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	36	0	51	225	58	21	3	0%	1.4	25.8%	9.3%	16.4%	1.3%	2.98	2.83	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	57	252	75	22	4	0%	1.4	22.6%	10.5%	12.1%	2.5%	4.55	3.90	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	57	252	75	22	4	0%	1.4	22.6%	10.5%	12.1%	2.5%	4.55	3.90	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	57	252	75	22	4	0%	1.4	29.8%	8.7%	21.0%	1.6%	4.55	2.54	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.2%	9.8%	13.5%	3.0%	4.40	4.40	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	MIN	32	0	33	141	32	14	4	0%	1.0	23.0%	9.9%	13.1%	3.1%	4.47	4.52	+0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	MIN	10	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	9.9%	13.1%	3.1%	4.47	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.1	23.0%	9.9%	13.1%	3.1%	4.47	4.14	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	201	80	20	0%	1.1	23.0%	9.9%	13.1%	3.1%	4.47	4.14	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		83	2	123	544	111	54	10	2%	1.5	20.4%	9.9%	10.5%	1.9%	4.26	3.66	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		135	3	200	887	181	88	17	2%	1.5	20.4%	9.9%	10.5%	1.9%	4.26	3.66	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Hicks (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.40	23.2%	9.8%	3.0%	—	4.52	23.0%	13.1%	33	+0.12	—	—	—
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	90
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	87
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	86
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	85
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	85
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	85
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	84
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	84
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	83
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	83
Dayan Díaz R 2017 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	25.1%	8.7%	2.5%	.358	3.96	29.4%	19.3%	16	+0.51	3.08	205	82
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	82
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	82
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.36	21.4%	10.8%	92	+0.05	3.89	168	82
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	82
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	82
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	81
Santiago Casilla R 2008 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	18.8%	7.9%	2.2%	.337	3.37	20.6%	10.4%	155	-0.34	2.76	647	81
Greg Aquino R 2006 · 4.41 FIP	28	SU	4.41	23.2%	10.0%	3.6%	.331	4.39	17.4%	5.6%	30	-0.02	4.10	154	81
Michael Dimock R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	23.5%	10.7%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	166	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	23.1%	9.9%	1.19	4.43
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10