Nic Swanson

P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	26	25	111	4.85	4.03	24.8%	10.1%	—	K 19.3% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.91
2025	26	MIX2 levels	18	14	66	5.18	4.34	21.8%	10.6%	—	K 16.8% · BB 12.4% · FIP 5.29
2026	27	MIX2 levels	42	3	79	4.65	4.42	27.9%	13.7%	—	K 22.5% · BB 14.2% · FIP 5.55
2027PROJ	28	MLBHOU	66	0	69	5.58	5.58	19.5%	14.4%	-0.8
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBHOU	20	0	21	5.54	5.59	19.6%	14.1%	-0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBHOU	30	0	32	5.58	5.67	19.6%	14.1%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control40Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsDennis O'Grady (age 26) · Josh Roeder (age 26) · Lisalverto Bonilla (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.58

FIP5.58

K%19.5%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%5.0%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	4	1	8	39	9	7	1	25%	2.0	23.1%	17.9%	5.1%	2.6%	5.62	4.83	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	4	1	8	39	9	7	1	25%	2.0	23.1%	17.9%	5.1%	2.6%	5.62	5.10	—
2022	23	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	24	12	83	371	93	50	13	50%	3.5	18.5%	15.9%	2.6%	4.8%	4.99	6.18	—
2022	23	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	24	12	83	371	93	50	13	50%	3.5	25.1%	13.5%	11.6%	3.5%	4.99	4.70	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	17	116	479	121	39	13	65%	4.5	19.0%	9.5%	9.5%	2.9%	3.34	4.29	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	17	116	479	121	39	13	65%	4.5	25.3%	8.1%	17.1%	2.7%	3.34	3.48	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	111	475	118	48	15	96%	4.3	19.3%	11.8%	7.5%	3.6%	4.85	4.91	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	111	475	118	48	15	96%	4.3	19.3%	11.8%	7.5%	3.6%	4.85	4.91	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	111	475	118	48	15	96%	4.3	24.8%	10.1%	14.7%	3.2%	4.85	4.03	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	66	293	64	31	9	78%	3.7	16.8%	12.4%	4.4%	3.7%	5.18	5.29	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	66	293	64	31	9	78%	3.7	16.8%	12.4%	4.4%	3.7%	5.18	5.29	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	14	66	293	64	31	9	78%	3.7	21.8%	10.6%	11.3%	3.1%	5.18	4.34	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	3	79	344	96	47	12	7%	1.9	22.5%	14.2%	8.3%	4.6%	4.65	5.55	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	3	79	344	96	47	12	7%	1.9	22.5%	14.2%	8.3%	4.6%	4.65	5.55	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	3	79	344	96	47	12	7%	1.9	27.9%	13.7%	14.2%	3.5%	4.65	4.42	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	HOU	66	0	69	291	57	42	10	0%	1.0	19.5%	14.4%	5.0%	3.5%	5.58	5.58	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	HOU	63	0	66	280	55	39	10	0%	1.1	19.6%	14.1%	5.5%	3.6%	5.54	5.59	-0.7
2029	30	MLB MLE	HOU	59	0	62	263	51	37	10	0%	1.1	19.6%	14.1%	5.5%	3.8%	5.58	5.67	-0.8
2028	29	MLB CTX	HOU	20	0	21	89	17	13	3	0%	1.1	19.6%	14.1%	5.5%	3.6%	5.54	5.59	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	HOU	30	0	32	135	26	19	5	0%	1.1	19.6%	14.1%	5.5%	3.8%	5.58	5.67	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	0	53	222	44	31	8	0%	1.1	19.6%	14.1%	5.5%	3.7%	5.56	5.26	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	118	30	0%	1.1	19.6%	14.1%	5.5%	3.7%	5.56	5.26	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		140	72	464	2001	387	253	76	51%	3.3	19.3%	12.6%	6.7%	3.8%	4.52	5.16	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	31	200	863	167	109	33	51%	3.3	19.3%	12.6%	6.7%	3.8%	4.52	5.16	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nic Swanson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.58	19.5%	14.4%	3.5%	—	5.63	19.6%	5.5%	128	+0.05	—	—	—
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	76
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	73
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	73
Jefry Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.4%	13.5%	3.4%	.287	4.58	19.8%	6.8%	64	-0.45	3.30	578	72
Brad Allen R 2016 · 5.82 FIP	27	SW	5.82	14.7%	13.2%	4.2%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	149	72
Todd Wellemeyer R 2007 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	17.0%	10.8%	3.1%	.270	4.86	15.5%	6.4%	373	+0.12	3.35	615	72
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	72
Kaleb Roper R 2022 · 5.67 FIP	26	SW	5.67	17.3%	11.8%	4.6%	.398	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	146	71
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	71
Jason García R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	28	SP-	4.76	17.7%	13.5%	2.6%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	356	70
Keyvius Sampson R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	26	SP-	5.08	19.6%	16.4%	2.8%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	70
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	70
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	69
Chris Jensen R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	27	SW	5.31	12.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	488	69
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	68
Drake Fellows R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	26	SP-	4.97	16.1%	12.7%	2.9%	.293	4.85	14.2%	6.3%	207	-0.12	4.28	282	68
Jake Walters R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SW	5.85	15.2%	13.9%	4.2%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	261	68
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	68
Grant Judkins R 2024 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	16.8%	9.1%	4.2%	.264	5.80	14.9%	5.8%	124	+0.67	5.13	322	68
Eddie Bonine R 2009 · 5.60 FIP	28	SW	5.60	13.1%	7.6%	4.8%	.306	4.54	8.6%	2.0%	68	-1.06	4.40	129	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	19.5%	14.2%	1.40	5.57
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*