Ike Buxton

P FCL Nationals

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 208 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	A+MIA	19	19	77	5.35	3.66	20.0%	11.4%	—	K 15.4% · BB 13.1% · FIP 4.45
2025	25	MIX2 levels	16	7	46	5.12	4.44	17.7%	17.2%	—	K 13.8% · BB 19.3% · FIP 4.97
2026	26	MIX2 levels	10	0	13	7.43	7.45	14.5%	18.8%	—	K 14.5% · BB 18.8% · FIP 6.65
2027PROJ	27	MLBWSH	5	5	32	5.54	5.54	16.5%	15.3%	-0.2
2028PROJ36% MLB	28	MLBWSH	2	2	11	5.47	5.50	17.1%	14.8%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsLuis Niebla (age 26) · Paul Clemens (age 27) · Alfonso Sanchez (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.54

FIP5.54

K%16.5%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%1.2%

Proj IP32

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	3	0	5	24	5	8	0	0%	1.6	20.8%	33.3%	-12.5%	0.0%	9.64	5.56	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	3	0	5	24	5	8	0	0%	1.6	20.8%	33.3%	-12.5%	0.0%	9.64	6.10	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	13	77	325	73	43	4	65%	3.9	16.8%	15.2%	1.6%	1.9%	2.45	4.67	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	13	77	325	73	43	4	65%	3.9	22.5%	13.2%	9.2%	1.2%	2.45	3.55	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	19	19	77	370	74	42	5	100%	4.1	15.4%	13.1%	2.3%	1.8%	5.35	4.45	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	19	19	77	370	74	42	5	100%	4.1	15.4%	13.1%	2.3%	1.8%	5.35	4.45	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	19	19	77	370	74	42	5	100%	4.1	20.0%	11.4%	8.6%	1.4%	5.35	3.66	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	7	46	215	38	37	2	44%	2.9	13.8%	19.3%	-5.5%	1.1%	5.12	4.97	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	7	46	215	38	37	2	44%	2.9	13.8%	19.3%	-5.5%	1.1%	5.12	4.97	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	7	46	215	38	37	2	44%	2.9	17.7%	17.2%	0.5%	0.9%	5.12	4.44	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	13	69	10	13	3	0%	1.3	14.5%	18.8%	-4.3%	4.3%	7.43	6.65	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	13	69	10	13	3	0%	1.3	14.5%	18.8%	-4.3%	4.3%	7.43	6.65	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	13	69	10	13	3	0%	1.3	14.5%	18.8%	-4.3%	4.3%	7.43	7.45	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	WSH	5	5	32	135	22	21	4	100%	6.4	16.5%	15.3%	1.2%	2.8%	5.54	5.54	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	5	5	31	130	22	19	4	100%	6.2	17.1%	14.8%	2.2%	2.9%	5.47	5.50	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	2	2	11	46	8	7	1	100%	5.5	17.1%	14.8%	2.2%	2.9%	5.47	5.50	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	11	47	8	7	1	100%	5.6	17.1%	14.8%	2.2%	2.9%	5.47	5.12	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	142	125	18	100%	6.0	17.1%	14.8%	2.2%	2.9%	5.47	5.12	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		68	39	218	1003	156	160	18	57%	3.2	15.6%	16.0%	-0.4%	1.8%	4.50	4.81	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	36	200	920	143	147	17	57%	3.2	15.6%	16.0%	-0.4%	1.8%	4.50	4.81	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ike Buxton (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.54	16.5%	15.3%	2.8%	—	5.50	17.1%	2.2%	31	-0.04	—	—	—
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	77
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	345	77
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	75
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	75
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	74
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	73
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	73
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	72
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	72
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	72
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	72
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	71
Drake Fellows R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	26	SP-	4.97	16.1%	12.7%	2.9%	.293	4.85	14.2%	6.3%	207	-0.12	4.28	282	71
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	71
Jared Fernandez R 2001 · 4.66 FIP	29	SW	4.66	8.8%	10.5%	1.8%	.267	3.95	14.0%	5.6%	89	-0.71	3.57	101	71
Keyvius Sampson R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	26	SP-	5.08	19.6%	16.4%	2.8%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	70
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	70
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	70
Michael Murray R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.2%	12.9%	2.0%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	116	69
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	16.8%	15.1%	1.09	5.51
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*