David Griffin prospect projection, MLE, ETA

David Griffin P Syracuse Mets

Age 30 RHP 6'0" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%17.8%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%8.6%

ROS IP55

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	71	305	78	31	6	100%	5.0	19.2%	11.9%	7.4%	2.6%	3.57	4.43	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	71	305	78	31	6	100%	5.0	25.6%	10.2%	15.4%	2.0%	3.57	3.31	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	18	94	407	84	35	12	64%	3.4	16.6%	9.8%	6.9%	3.2%	5.06	4.71	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	18	94	407	84	35	12	64%	3.4	20.6%	8.6%	12.0%	2.9%	5.06	4.09	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	15	81	373	63	36	16	68%	3.7	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	5.0%	6.67	5.83	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	15	81	373	63	36	16	68%	3.7	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	5.0%	6.67	5.83	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	15	81	373	63	36	16	68%	3.7	16.9%	9.7%	7.2%	4.3%	6.67	5.45	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	1	10	54	9	5	1	20%	1.9	16.7%	9.3%	7.4%	1.9%	13.03	3.88	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	1	10	54	9	5	1	20%	1.9	16.7%	9.3%	7.4%	1.9%	13.03	3.88	—
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	1	10	54	9	5	1	20%	1.9	16.7%	9.3%	7.4%	1.9%	13.03	4.13	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	NYM	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.8%	9.2%	8.6%	3.2%	4.89	4.89	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	51	217	39	21	7	100%	5.7	17.9%	9.6%	8.4%	3.4%	4.96	5.04	-0.1
2028	32	MLB MLE	NYM	8	8	48	201	36	20	7	100%	5.9	17.9%	9.9%	8.0%	3.6%	5.09	5.21	-0.2
2029	33	MLB MLE	NYM	7	7	44	184	33	19	7	100%	6.2	17.7%	10.3%	7.3%	3.9%	5.27	5.41	-0.2
2027	31	MLB CTX	NYM	3	3	16	68	12	6	2	100%	5.3	17.9%	9.6%	8.4%	3.4%	4.96	5.04	-0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	NYM	4	4	24	101	18	10	4	100%	6.0	17.9%	9.9%	8.0%	3.6%	5.09	5.21	-0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	NYM	5	5	28	118	21	12	5	100%	5.6	17.7%	10.3%	7.3%	3.9%	5.27	5.41	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	11	69	291	52	29	11	100%	6.3	17.8%	10.0%	7.8%	3.7%	5.13	4.87	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	151	84	32	100%	6.0	17.8%	10.0%	7.8%	3.7%	5.13	4.87	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		69	48	256	1139	188	115	41	70%	3.7	16.5%	10.1%	6.4%	3.6%	5.46	4.96	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	38	200	891	147	90	32	70%	3.7	16.5%	10.1%	6.4%	3.6%	5.46	4.96	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Griffin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	17.8%	9.2%	3.2%	—	5.21	17.8%	7.9%	142	+0.32	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	85
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	80
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	78
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	78
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	74
Jared Fernandez R 2002 · 4.23 FIP	30	SP-	4.23	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	.323	3.57	11.8%	5.6%	38	-0.66	3.57	101	74
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	581	74
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	72
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	71
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	71
Michael Mariot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	30	SP	5.01	19.8%	11.1%	4.0%	.333	5.03	15.8%	7.4%	182	+0.02	2.40	701	70
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	70
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	69
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	69
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	69
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	68
Luke Hudson R 2006 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	14.5%	8.4%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	235	68
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	68
Aaron Wilkerson R 2019 · 4.67 FIP	30	SP-	4.67	20.9%	9.8%	3.8%	.291	3.33	24.6%	19.0%	112	-1.34	2.75	902	68
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	17.8%	9.7%	1.35	5.04
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57