Duncan Davitt

P Sacramento River Cats

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 235 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	26	26	137	3.62	3.39	25.4%	7.6%	—	K 19.9% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.33
2025	25	MIX2 levels	28	28	152	4.38	3.62	23.8%	7.0%	—	K 19.8% · BB 6.7% · FIP 4.06
2026	26	MIX3 levels	38	11	84	6.21	4.61	23.0%	9.2%	-0.1	K 20.0% · BB 8.6% · FIP 4.28
2027PROJ	27	MLBSF	8	8	48	4.48	4.48	18.9%	7.0%	0.5
2028PROJ75% MLB	28	MLBSF	7	7	42	4.52	4.55	19.2%	7.4%	0.4
2029PROJ80% MLB	29	MLBSF	6	6	39	4.60	4.66	19.3%	7.7%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 1.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsZach Stewart (age 28) · Ricky Castro (age 24) · Clay Condrey (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%18.9%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%11.9%

Proj IP71

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	3	0	4	21	6	2	1	0%	1.4	28.6%	9.5%	19.0%	4.8%	12.46	4.51	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	3	0	4	21	6	2	1	0%	1.4	28.6%	9.5%	19.0%	4.8%	12.46	4.72	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	11	80	345	92	26	11	39%	2.9	20.4%	8.7%	11.6%	3.8%	4.95	4.55	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	11	80	345	92	26	11	39%	2.9	26.7%	7.5%	19.1%	3.2%	4.95	3.56	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	137	556	141	42	15	100%	5.3	19.9%	8.5%	11.4%	3.3%	3.62	4.33	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	137	556	141	42	15	100%	5.3	19.9%	8.5%	11.4%	3.3%	3.62	4.33	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	137	556	141	42	15	100%	5.3	25.4%	7.6%	17.8%	2.7%	3.62	3.39	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	152	630	150	44	19	100%	5.4	19.8%	6.7%	13.1%	3.3%	4.38	4.06	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	152	630	150	44	19	100%	5.4	19.8%	6.7%	13.1%	3.3%	4.38	4.06	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	152	630	150	44	19	100%	5.4	23.8%	7.0%	16.8%	3.0%	4.38	3.62	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	11	84	370	85	34	15	29%	2.2	20.0%	8.6%	11.5%	3.2%	6.21	4.28	+0.3
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	11	84	370	85	34	15	29%	2.2	20.0%	8.6%	11.5%	3.2%	6.21	4.28	+0.3
2026	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	11	84	370	85	34	15	29%	2.2	23.0%	9.2%	13.8%	4.1%	6.21	4.61	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	0	8	37	5	3	3	0%	1.3	13.5%	8.1%	5.4%	8.1%	7.88	7.85	-0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	SF	8	8	48	203	38	14	6	100%	6.0	18.9%	7.0%	11.9%	3.1%	4.48	4.48	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	56	238	46	18	8	100%	6.3	19.2%	7.4%	11.8%	3.2%	4.52	4.55	+0.6
2029	29	MLB MLE	SF	8	8	48	205	39	16	7	100%	6.1	19.3%	7.7%	11.5%	3.3%	4.60	4.66	+0.4
2030	30	MLB MLE	SF	7	7	43	180	34	15	6	100%	6.1	19.1%	8.1%	11.0%	3.5%	4.73	4.82	+0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	SF	7	7	42	177	34	13	6	100%	6.0	19.2%	7.4%	11.8%	3.2%	4.52	4.55	+0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	SF	6	6	39	165	32	13	5	100%	6.5	19.3%	7.7%	11.5%	3.3%	4.60	4.66	+0.3
2030	30	MLB CTX	SF	6	6	35	148	28	12	5	100%	5.8	19.1%	8.1%	11.0%	3.5%	4.73	4.82	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		25	19	125	529	99	41	19	76%	5.0	18.8%	7.7%	11.1%	3.7%	4.82	4.51	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	30	200	850	159	66	31	76%	5.0	18.8%	7.7%	11.1%	3.7%	4.82	4.51	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		123	76	457	1922	386	153	65	62%	3.7	20.1%	8.0%	12.1%	3.4%	4.67	4.27	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	33	200	841	169	67	28	62%	3.7	20.1%	8.0%	12.1%	3.4%	4.67	4.27	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASacramento River Cats · 69 IPFIP 3.96 → 4.28 (+0.32)K% 23.3% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.28%	—	×0.860	20.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.51%	—	×0.900	8.56%
HR / BF /BF	2.95%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.25%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.96 → 4.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAColumbus Clingstones · 7 IPFIP 7.17 → 8.95 (+1.78)K% 32.1% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.14%	—	×0.810	26.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.100	7.86%
HR / BF /BF	10.71%	÷1.000	×1.200	12.86%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 7.17 → 8.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 84 IPFIP 3.23 → 4.17 (+0.94)K% 24.3% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.32%	—	×0.810	19.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.20%	—	×1.100	4.62%
HR / BF /BF	3.00%	÷0.922	×1.200	3.91%

Result: FIP 3.23 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 68 IPFIP 4.08 → 3.95 (−0.13)K% 23.2% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.23%	—	×0.860	19.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.10%	—	×0.900	9.09%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.320	×1.100	2.53%

Result: FIP 4.08 → 3.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 86 IPFIP 3.14 → 4.04 (+0.90)K% 24.8% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.78%	—	×0.770	19.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.71%	—	×1.150	7.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷1.015	×1.250	2.87%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 3.14 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 51 IPFIP 3.81 → 4.80 (+0.99)K% 26.3% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.29%	—	×0.810	21.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.92%	—	×1.100	9.81%
HR / BF /BF	3.29%	÷0.958	×1.200	4.12%

Result: FIP 3.81 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 62 IPFIP 3.59 → 4.59 (+1.00)K% 27.5% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.55%	—	×0.770	21.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.55%	—	×1.150	8.68%
HR / BF /BF	3.40%	÷1.066	×1.250	3.98%

Result: FIP 3.59 → 4.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ACharleston RiverDogs · 18 IPFIP 3.42 → 4.40 (+0.98)K% 23.8% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.75%	—	×0.740	17.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.50%	—	×1.180	8.85%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷1.075	×1.300	3.02%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 3.42 → 4.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Duncan Davitt (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.66	19.2%	11.5%	148	+0.18	—	—	—
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	67
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	66
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	66
Chase Whitley R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	27	SP-	4.10	19.5%	7.0%	3.2%	.217	3.22	18.0%	11.8%	81	-0.88	3.09	235	66
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	65
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	64
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	64
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	64
Jimmy Endersby R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	17.3%	8.0%	3.4%	.257	2.86	17.2%	12.8%	36	-1.68	2.86	357	63
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	63
Max Beatty R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP-	3.88	13.2%	6.4%	2.0%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	117	63
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	62
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	62
Kyle Lloyd R 2018 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	18.2%	9.8%	2.6%	.336	4.75	17.2%	9.3%	110	+0.52	3.50	572	62
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	62
Mac Sceroler R 2021 · 5.29 FIP	26	SP-	5.29	17.8%	7.0%	5.1%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	275	62
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	62
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	62
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	61
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	57	18.9%	7.6%	1.33	4.68
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*