Duncan Davitt
P
Charlotte Knights
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 235 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.0 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.50
FIP4.50
K%19.0%
BB%7.5%
K-BB%11.6%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 115 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB+0.8 (29%)
CH (14%)
SL (57%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | FCL Rays | 3 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.6% | 9.5% | 19.0% | 4.8% | 12.46 | 4.51 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | FCL Rays | 3 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.6% | 9.5% | 19.0% | 4.8% | 12.46 | 4.72 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 11 | 80 | 345 | 92 | 26 | 11 | 39% | 2.9 | 20.4% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 4.95 | 4.42 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 11 | 80 | 345 | 92 | 26 | 11 | 39% | 2.9 | 26.7% | 7.5% | 19.1% | 3.2% | 4.95 | 3.56 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 137 | 556 | 141 | 42 | 15 | 100% | 5.3 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 3.62 | 4.36 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 137 | 556 | 141 | 42 | 15 | 100% | 5.3 | 25.4% | 7.6% | 17.8% | 2.7% | 3.62 | 3.39 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 152 | 630 | 150 | 44 | 19 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.1% | 7.4% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 4.11 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 152 | 630 | 150 | 44 | 19 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.8% | 7.0% | 16.8% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 3.62 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 20 | 10 | 55 | 244 | 60 | 24 | 8 | 50% | 2.8 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 3.7% | 6.18 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CWS | 10 | 10 | 60 | 251 | 48 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.0% | 7.5% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CWS | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 48 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.0% | 7.5% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 115 | 495 | 108 | 43 | 16 | — | — | 21.8% | 8.6% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 5.31 | 4.51 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 60 | 255 | 108 | 43 | 16 | — | — | 42.2% | 16.7% | 25.5% | 6.2% | 10.11 | 5.06 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 15 | 15 | 89 | 375 | 72 | 28 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.3% | 7.6% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.51 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 86 | 363 | 70 | 28 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.4% | 7.7% | 11.7% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.58 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 84 | 355 | 68 | 27 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.3% | 7.6% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.54 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 82 | 346 | 67 | 27 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.4% | 7.7% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.61 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 39 | 38 | 226 | 955 | 183 | 73 | 30 | 97% | 5.8 | 19.2% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.19 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 34 | 200 | 843 | 162 | 64 | 26 | 97% | 5.7 | 19.2% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 105 | 75 | 428 | 1796 | 367 | 151 | 61 | 71% | 4.1 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 4.56 | 4.31 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 35 | 200 | 839 | 171 | 70 | 29 | 71% | 4.1 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 4.56 | 4.31 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Duncan Davitt (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 19.0% | 7.5% | 3.1% | — | 4.54 | 19.3% | 11.7% | 175 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 72 |
| Jake Walters R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.17 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .316 | 5.97 | 15.5% | -0.2% | 72 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 261 | 71 |
| Whit Mayberry R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.51 | 16.2% | 4.3% | 2.2% | .267 | 2.64 | 12.3% | 7.7% | 11 | -0.87 | 2.64 | 140 | 71 |
| Wilmer Font R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.55 | 17.0% | 4.9% | 2.3% | .277 | 3.87 | 26.2% | 19.1% | 263 | +0.32 | 2.78 | 345 | 71 |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 71 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 70 |
| Jake Walkinshaw R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 17.5% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .296 | 4.92 | 13.3% | 3.1% | 116 | +0.26 | 2.20 | 286 | 69 |
| Sauryn Lao R 2025 · 3.48 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.48 | 21.7% | 7.3% | 2.4% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 182 | 69 |
| Cody Sedlock R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.83 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .301 | 4.18 | 20.1% | 7.1% | 80 | -0.65 | 4.16 | 378 | 69 |
| David Phelps R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 69 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 69 |
| Kyle Smith R 2024 · 3.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.33 | 15.2% | 5.7% | 1.4% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 159 | 69 |
| Markus Solbach R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.61 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.76 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 111 | +1.15 | 3.25 | 391 | 69 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .263 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.61 | 3.14 | 406 | 69 |
| Chad Dallas R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.40 | 19.8% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 322 | 69 |
| Chase Centala R 2024 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 124 | 68 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .285 | 6.04 | 14.5% | 4.2% | 81 | +1.10 | 4.52 | 239 | 68 |
| Kris Medlen R 2029 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 68 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 68 |
| Dawson Netz R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 78 | 19.3% | 7.6% | 1.21 | 4.51 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Roenis Elías ('19) | 3 | 72 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 1.08 | 3.74 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |