Duncan Davitt — OGILVIE

Duncan Davitt P Sacramento River Cats

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 235 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.5 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION78 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

K%18.5%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%11.9%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 86 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4545

CMD5560

K†4545

FB+0.8 (36%)

SI (7%)

CT (18%)

CU (4%)

CH (7%)

SL (57%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	3	0	4	21	6	2	1	0%	1.4	28.6%	9.5%	19.0%	4.8%	12.46	4.51	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	3	0	4	21	6	2	1	0%	1.4	28.6%	9.5%	19.0%	4.8%	12.46	4.72	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	11	80	345	92	26	11	39%	2.9	20.4%	8.7%	11.6%	3.8%	4.95	4.55	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	11	80	345	92	26	11	39%	2.9	20.4%	8.7%	11.6%	3.8%	4.95	4.55	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	11	80	345	92	26	11	39%	2.9	26.7%	7.5%	19.1%	3.2%	4.95	3.56	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	137	556	141	42	15	100%	5.3	19.9%	8.5%	11.4%	3.3%	3.62	4.33	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	137	556	141	42	15	100%	5.3	19.9%	8.5%	11.4%	3.3%	3.62	4.33	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	137	556	141	42	15	100%	5.3	25.4%	7.6%	17.8%	2.7%	3.62	3.39	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	152	630	150	44	19	100%	5.4	19.5%	6.7%	12.8%	3.3%	4.38	4.09	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	152	630	150	44	19	100%	5.4	19.5%	6.7%	12.8%	3.3%	4.38	4.09	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	152	630	150	44	19	100%	5.4	23.8%	7.0%	16.8%	3.0%	4.38	3.62	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			2	0	2	8	1	1	1	0%	1.0	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	12.5%	4.50	10.10	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	34	11	78	341	81	32	13	32%	2.3	19.3%	8.6%	10.8%	3.2%	6.00	4.33	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	34	11	78	341	81	32	13	32%	2.3	19.3%	8.6%	10.8%	3.2%	6.00	4.33	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	CWS	4	0	7	28	9	2	3	0%	1.7	32.1%	7.1%	25.0%	10.7%	6.75	7.17	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	CWS	28	11	69	305	71	29	9	39%	2.5	23.3%	9.5%	13.8%	3.0%	5.97	3.96	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	CWS	2	0	2	8	1	1	1	0%	1.0	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	12.5%	4.50	10.49	—
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	CWS	2	0	2	8	1	1	1	0%	1.0	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	12.5%	4.50	10.49	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	CWS	8	0	8	34	6	2	1	0%	1.0	18.5%	6.6%	11.9%	3.1%	4.46	4.46	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	CWS	8	0	8	34	6	2	1	0%	1.0	18.5%	6.6%	11.9%	3.2%	4.49	4.49	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	86	375	87	34	14	—	—	23.3%	9.1%	14.1%	3.7%	5.85	4.35	+0.4
FULL	26	MLB A+C	CWS	—	—	10	43	87	34	14	—	—	203.6%	79.9%	123.7%	32.8%	49.64	14.05	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	135	569	107	39	18	100%	6.1	18.9%	6.8%	12.1%	3.2%	4.47	4.48	+0.7
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	131	552	105	39	18	100%	5.9	19.0%	7.0%	12.0%	3.2%	4.51	4.55	+0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	CWS	21	21	125	527	99	38	18	100%	5.9	18.9%	7.3%	11.6%	3.4%	4.59	4.66	+0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	CWS	20	20	117	495	92	38	18	100%	5.9	18.6%	7.6%	11.0%	3.6%	4.73	4.83	+0.1
2031	31	MLB MLE	CWS	18	18	109	462	84	37	18	100%	6.1	18.2%	7.9%	10.3%	3.8%	4.91	5.03	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	CWS	21	21	128	540	102	37	17	100%	6.1	18.9%	6.8%	12.1%	3.2%	4.50	4.51	+0.6
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	21	21	124	524	99	37	17	100%	5.9	19.0%	7.0%	12.0%	3.3%	4.54	4.58	+0.5
2029	29	MLB CTX	CWS	20	20	119	502	95	37	17	100%	6.0	18.9%	7.3%	11.6%	3.4%	4.62	4.69	+0.3
2030	30	MLB CTX	CWS	18	18	111	469	87	36	17	100%	6.2	18.6%	7.6%	11.0%	3.6%	4.76	4.86	+0.1
2031	31	MLB CTX	CWS	17	17	104	439	80	35	17	100%	6.1	18.2%	7.9%	10.3%	3.9%	4.95	5.07	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		107	98	596	2517	471	184	88	92%	5.6	18.7%	7.3%	11.4%	3.5%	4.66	4.36	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	33	200	844	158	62	30	91%	5.6	18.7%	7.3%	11.4%	3.5%	4.66	4.36	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		119	76	451	1893	376	151	64	64%	3.8	19.9%	8.0%	11.9%	3.4%	4.61	4.29	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	34	200	839	167	67	28	64%	3.8	19.9%	8.0%	11.9%	3.4%	4.61	4.29	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Duncan Davitt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	18.5%	6.6%	3.1%	—	4.56	18.9%	11.9%	390	+0.10	—	—	—
Keaton Winn R 2023 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP-	4.01	20.6%	7.2%	3.2%	.310	4.37	18.9%	10.7%	122	+0.36	3.68	457	73
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	73
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	72
Jake Walkinshaw R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	17.5%	6.4%	4.0%	.296	4.84	13.0%	3.5%	116	+0.23	2.84	307	71
Parker Curry R 2019 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	17.8%	5.4%	4.6%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	256	71
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.85	13.9%	4.7%	81	+1.14	4.43	239	70
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	70
Luis Santos R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	19.7%	9.7%	3.8%	.262	3.93	22.1%	13.0%	127	-0.83	3.53	472	70
Collin Lowe R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	24	SP-	3.62	15.2%	6.2%	1.8%	.292	3.11	15.1%	11.2%	75	-0.51	3.11	165	70
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	70
Kutter Crawford R 2022 · 4.47 FIP	26	SP-	4.47	21.9%	7.7%	4.1%	.316	4.15	24.1%	17.4%	313	-0.32	3.30	741	70
Whit Mayberry R 2016 · 3.54 FIP	26	SP-	3.54	16.2%	4.3%	2.3%	.267	2.64	12.3%	7.7%	11	-0.90	2.64	140	70
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	69
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	69
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	69
Wendolyn Bautista R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	26	SP-	4.20	18.3%	5.5%	3.5%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	468	69
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	69
Kyle Smith R 2017 · 3.31 FIP	24	SP-	3.31	15.2%	5.7%	1.4%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	159	69
Deck McGuire R 2015 · 3.69 FIP	26	SP-	3.69	18.2%	6.2%	2.4%	.301	4.44	18.9%	9.2%	411	+0.75	3.41	622	69
Tanner Roark R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	28	SW	4.46	15.0%	4.9%	3.6%	.286	3.78	20.2%	12.9%	572	-0.68	3.13	942	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	117	18.7%	7.2%	1.31	4.61
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01