Duncan Davitt
P
Charlotte Knights
+0.4
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 235 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.2 · 2027
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
xFIP7.52
SIERA11.51
K%20.9%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%12.5%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2027
K†5050
FB+0.8 (29%)
CH (14%)
SL (57%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | FCL Rays | 3 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 12.46 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 28 | 11 | 80 | 345 | 92 | 26 | 11 | 20.4% | 8.7% | 3.7% | 4.95 | 4.53 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 26 | 26 | 137 | 556 | 141 | 42 | 15 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 3.62 | 4.32 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 28 | 28 | 152 | 630 | 150 | 44 | 19 | 20.1% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 4.13 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 4 | 3 | 11 | 52 | 15 | 9 | 2 | — | — | — | 6.35 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CWS | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 42 | 17 | 6 | 20.9% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 58 | 250 | 57 | 26 | 8 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 3.62 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 123 | 520 | 109 | 44 | 16 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 110 | 44 | 16 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.48 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 120 | 509 | 107 | 43 | 16 | 21.0% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.52 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 117 | 494 | 103 | 42 | 16 | 20.8% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.57 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 113 | 476 | 98 | 41 | 16 | 20.6% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.65 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 108 | 457 | 93 | 40 | 15 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 4.68 | 4.74 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 19 | 103 | 437 | 87 | 39 | 15 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 4.77 | 4.83 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 81 | 38 | 15 | 19.7% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 4.94 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 17 | 17 | 93 | 391 | 75 | 37 | 14 | 19.3% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 4.99 | 5.06 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 69 | 35 | 14 | 18.8% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 5.12 | 5.20 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 89 | 68 | 384 | 1604 | 328 | 135 | 55 | 20.5% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 4.38 | 4.31 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 35 | 200 | 835 | 171 | 70 | 29 | 20.5% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 4.38 | 4.31 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Duncan Davitt (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 20.9% | 8.5% | 3.1% | — | 4.49 | 21.0% | 12.6% | 367 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Heath Hembree R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.00 | 18.4% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .256 | 3.93 | 25.6% | 17.6% | 173 | -0.07 | 2.67 | 382 | 84 |
| Wilmer Font R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.78 | 17.0% | 4.9% | 2.7% | .277 | 3.87 | 26.2% | 19.1% | 263 | +0.09 | 2.76 | 345 | 80 |
| Héctor Neris R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.97 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .298 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 23.7% | 221 | -0.97 | 1.99 | 682 | 78 |
| Seth Frankoff R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.02 | 19.6% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .312 | 4.24 | 20.0% | 11.3% | 177 | +0.22 | 2.88 | 263 | 77 |
| Dugan Darnell R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.66 | 23.1% | 10.1% | 4.1% | .302 | 3.31 | 24.5% | 15.5% | 94 | -1.35 | 2.49 | 238 | 77 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 77 |
| Jack Dallas R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.58 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.2% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 169 | 76 |
| Kevin McCarthy R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.99 | 15.7% | 6.1% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.55 | 16.1% | 10.6% | 120 | -0.44 | 3.29 | 387 | 76 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.4% | .310 | 4.30 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | -0.02 | 3.45 | 161 | 75 |
| Matt Barnes R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.47 | 24.7% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .311 | 2.99 | 34.4% | 23.2% | 196 | -0.48 | 2.49 | 495 | 75 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 75 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .242 | 2.97 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 62 | -0.89 | 2.97 | 167 | 75 |
| Esmerling De La Rosa R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.37 | 20.5% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .313 | 4.87 | 14.1% | 5.8% | 66 | +1.50 | 2.90 | 237 | 75 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 74 |
| Tyler Ferguson R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.21 | 19.8% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .231 | 3.54 | 24.4% | 10.1% | 209 | -0.67 | 2.54 | 369 | 74 |
| Jay Flaa R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 20.8% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .175 | 4.75 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 107 | +0.30 | 3.62 | 273 | 74 |
| Rob Scahill R 2028 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 74 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.21 | 2.96 | 114 | 74 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.29 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.61 | 2.45 | 362 | 74 |
| Jason Ruffcorn R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.14 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .255 | 4.04 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 66 | -0.10 | 4.04 | 214 | 73 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2027
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2032
First FA Year 2033
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2027 | |||
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.2 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.1 | $9M | +$9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $2M | +1.0 | $9M | +$7M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.8 | $4M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.7 | $3M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $11M | $45M | +$34M | ||