Ryan Cardona

P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 213 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX2 levels	24	16	90	3.49	2.81	29.6%	13.0%	—	K 22.8% · BB 16.5% · FIP 3.85
2024	24	A+CIN	22	19	104	3.29	2.91	28.2%	10.1%	—	K 21.7% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.62
2025	25	MIX2 levels	26	23	112	4.76	4.83	14.7%	13.3%	—	K 12.0% · BB 14.9% · FIP 5.23
2027PROJ	27	MLBCIN	12	12	74	6.09	6.09	11.9%	16.5%	-0.9
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBCIN	4	4	27	5.97	6.00	12.9%	15.9%	-0.3
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBCIN	6	6	38	5.94	6.01	13.5%	15.6%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control35Command25

CompsLuis Niebla (age 26) · Edgar Alberto Garcia (age 27) · Noah Song (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149141vR 133

ERA6.09

FIP6.09

K%11.9%

BB%16.5%

K-BB%-4.6%

Proj IP74

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3535

CMD2525

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	4	13	57	10	5	1	57%	1.9	17.5%	8.8%	8.8%	1.8%	3.46	3.69	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	4	13	57	10	5	1	57%	1.9	17.5%	8.8%	8.8%	1.8%	3.46	3.72	—
2022	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	25	7	75	326	92	49	6	28%	3.0	20.9%	17.7%	3.1%	2.7%	3.36	5.07	—
2022	22	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	25	7	75	326	92	49	6	28%	3.0	28.2%	15.0%	13.2%	1.8%	3.36	3.65	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	90	385	114	50	4	67%	3.8	22.8%	16.5%	6.3%	1.1%	3.49	3.85	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	16	90	385	114	50	4	67%	3.8	29.6%	13.0%	16.6%	1.0%	3.49	2.81	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	22	19	104	426	120	43	7	86%	4.7	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	1.6%	3.29	3.62	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	22	19	104	426	120	43	7	86%	4.7	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	1.6%	3.29	3.62	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	22	19	104	426	120	43	7	86%	4.7	28.2%	10.1%	18.1%	1.6%	3.29	2.91	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	112	482	71	64	11	88%	4.3	12.0%	14.9%	-2.9%	2.3%	4.76	5.23	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	112	482	71	64	11	88%	4.3	12.0%	14.9%	-2.9%	2.3%	4.76	5.23	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	112	482	71	64	11	88%	4.3	14.7%	13.3%	1.5%	2.3%	4.76	4.83	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CIN	12	12	74	312	37	52	9	100%	6.2	11.9%	16.5%	-4.6%	2.8%	6.09	6.09	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	72	304	39	48	9	100%	6.0	12.9%	15.9%	-3.0%	2.9%	5.97	6.00	-0.9
2029	29	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	69	290	39	45	9	100%	6.3	13.5%	15.6%	-2.2%	3.1%	5.94	6.01	-0.8
2030	30	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	65	273	37	43	9	100%	5.9	13.6%	15.6%	-2.0%	3.3%	6.00	6.10	-0.8
2028	28	MLB CTX	CIN	4	4	27	114	15	18	3	100%	6.8	12.9%	15.9%	-3.0%	2.9%	5.97	6.00	-0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	38	160	22	25	5	100%	6.3	13.5%	15.6%	-2.2%	3.1%	5.94	6.01	-0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	44	186	25	29	6	100%	6.3	13.6%	15.6%	-2.0%	3.3%	6.00	6.10	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	18	109	462	62	73	14	100%	6.1	13.4%	15.7%	-2.3%	3.1%	5.97	5.66	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	113	133	26	100%	6.0	13.4%	15.7%	-2.3%	3.1%	5.97	5.66	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		104	69	394	1676	316	247	32	66%	3.8	18.9%	14.8%	4.1%	1.9%	3.77	4.42	-2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	35	200	851	160	126	16	66%	3.8	18.9%	14.8%	4.1%	1.9%	3.77	4.42	-2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Cardona (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.09	11.9%	16.5%	2.8%	—	6.03	13.3%	-2.4%	206	-0.06	—	—	—
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	77
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	73
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	70
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	345	69
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	68
Drake Fellows R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	26	SP-	4.97	16.1%	12.7%	2.9%	.293	4.85	14.2%	6.3%	207	-0.12	4.28	282	68
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	68
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	67
Jim Brower R 2000 · 5.54 FIP	27	SP-	5.54	10.9%	10.2%	3.8%	.314	4.22	16.4%	7.2%	310	-1.32	3.67	571	67
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	67
Chris Jensen R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	27	SW	5.31	12.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	488	67
Daniel Bard R 2012 · 5.69 FIP	27	SP-	5.69	13.7%	15.2%	3.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	456	66
Adam Panayotovich R 2017 · 5.45 FIP	25	SP-	5.45	9.6%	9.0%	3.7%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	121	66
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	66
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	66
Keyvius Sampson R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	26	SP-	5.08	19.6%	16.4%	2.8%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	65
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	65
Justin Miller R 2004 · 5.41 FIP	26	SP-	5.41	12.5%	10.4%	3.7%	.316	2.63	28.6%	21.7%	62	-2.78	2.63	373	65
Bryan Mitchell R 2018 · 6.03 FIP	27	SP-	6.03	13.0%	12.2%	4.5%	.282	5.36	17.2%	4.6%	115	-0.67	2.72	481	65
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	70	12.9%	15.9%	1.16	6.00
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*