Dylan Carter

P San Jose Giants

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 226 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	ASF	2	3	6.75	6.85	7.7%	30.8%	—	K 7.7% · BB 30.8% · FIP 6.35
2026	24	ASF	38	52	4.82	3.02	22.5%	8.9%	—	K 16.6% · BB 10.5% · FIP 3.93
2027PROJ	25	MLBSF	35	37	4.74	4.74	19.0%	10.3%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBSF	19	20	4.67	4.65	19.9%	10.1%	-0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBSF	28	29	4.66	4.66	20.2%	10.1%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsVinnie Chulk (age 25) · Josh Zeid (age 26) · Jacob Bosiokovic (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%19.0%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%8.7%

Proj IP37

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	San Jose Giants	2	0	3	13	1	4	0	0%	1.3	7.7%	30.8%	-23.1%	0.0%	6.75	6.35	—
2025	23	A MLE	San Jose Giants	2	0	3	13	1	4	0	0%	1.3	7.7%	30.8%	-23.1%	0.0%	6.75	6.35	—
2025	23	A RAW	San Jose Giants	2	0	3	13	1	4	0	0%	1.3	7.7%	30.8%	-23.1%	0.0%	6.75	6.85	—
2026	24	A MLE	San Jose Giants	38	0	52	236	53	21	3	0%	1.4	16.6%	10.5%	6.1%	1.7%	4.82	3.93	—
2026	24	A MLE	San Jose Giants	38	0	52	236	53	21	3	0%	1.4	16.6%	10.5%	6.1%	1.7%	4.82	3.93	—
2026	24	A RAW	San Jose Giants	38	0	52	236	53	21	3	0%	1.4	22.5%	8.9%	13.6%	1.3%	4.82	3.02	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	SF	35	0	37	156	30	16	4	0%	1.1	19.0%	10.3%	8.7%	2.8%	4.74	4.74	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SF	45	0	47	199	40	20	6	0%	1.0	19.9%	10.1%	9.8%	2.9%	4.67	4.65	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	SF	44	0	46	196	39	20	6	0%	1.1	20.2%	10.1%	10.0%	2.9%	4.66	4.66	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	SF	19	0	20	84	17	9	2	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.1%	9.8%	2.9%	4.67	4.65	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	SF	28	0	29	122	25	12	4	0%	1.0	20.2%	10.1%	10.0%	2.9%	4.66	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		47	0	49	208	42	21	6	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.1%	9.9%	2.9%	4.66	4.28	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	171	85	24	0%	1.1	20.0%	10.1%	9.9%	2.9%	4.66	4.28	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		40	0	55	249	40	29	4	0%	1.4	16.2%	11.6%	4.6%	1.6%	4.91	4.06	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		145	0	200	905	146	105	14	0%	1.4	16.2%	11.6%	4.6%	1.6%	4.91	4.06	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Carter (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	19.0%	10.3%	2.8%	—	4.65	20.0%	9.9%	94	-0.09	—	—	—
Vinnie Chulk R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	17.7%	10.5%	2.4%	.308	3.95	16.9%	9.6%	171	-0.31	2.97	271	92
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	91
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	90
Rhiner Cruz R 2012 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	18.2%	11.5%	3.2%	.335	4.81	10.2%	-1.0%	21	+0.01	3.21	127	89
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	89
Esmerling Vasquez R 2009 · 3.86 FIP	25	SU	3.86	18.9%	11.3%	1.7%	.296	4.30	17.3%	4.7%	116	+0.44	3.70	204	88
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	88
Guillermo Moscoso R 2009 · 3.56 FIP	25	SU	3.56	18.8%	9.4%	1.6%	.311	4.33	15.8%	8.5%	178	+0.77	3.56	486	88
Carlos Alvarado R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.3%	10.0%	3.5%	.342	4.15	24.3%	14.8%	78	-0.75	2.68	102	88
Garrett Apker R 2024 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	19.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.288	8.46	15.4%	-7.6%	11	+4.45	4.01	101	87
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	87
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	87
Luis Vizcaino R 2000 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	18.8%	11.5%	2.1%	.354	4.31	22.7%	14.9%	180	+0.20	3.07	564	87
Luke Bell R 2024 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	20.4%	9.9%	1.8%	.295	5.69	13.1%	1.3%	66	+2.07	3.62	110	87
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	87
Jason Ruffcorn R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	25	SU	4.02	17.8%	10.7%	1.9%	.315	4.33	18.4%	8.7%	175	+0.31	4.01	283	87
Greg Burke R 2009 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	16.2%	8.8%	2.0%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	87
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	87
Jordan Milbrath R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	19.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.272	3.61	19.6%	9.7%	129	-0.44	3.19	386	86
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	86

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	43	19.7%	10.2%	1.11	4.69
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*