Reese Dutton — OGILVIE

Reese Dutton P Jersey Shore BlueClaws

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs A+ peak 0.9 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION105 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.41

FIP5.41

K%11.9%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%-0.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 112 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	23	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	2	0	6	20	6	1	0	0%	3.0	30.0%	5.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.20	—
2024	23	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	2	0	6	20	6	1	0	0%	3.0	30.0%	5.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.20	—
2024	23	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	2	0	6	20	6	1	0	0%	3.0	30.0%	5.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.60	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	14	105	450	84	40	4	58%	4.4	14.1%	10.3%	3.8%	1.1%	4.03	3.80	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	14	105	450	84	40	4	58%	4.4	14.1%	10.3%	3.8%	1.1%	4.03	3.80	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	14	105	450	84	40	4	58%	4.4	18.7%	8.9%	9.8%	0.9%	4.03	3.14	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	25	17	105	450	83	44	16	68%	4.2	14.3%	11.0%	3.3%	4.4%	4.44	5.71	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	25	17	105	450	83	44	16	68%	4.2	14.3%	11.0%	3.3%	4.4%	4.44	5.71	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	PHI	16	14	82	336	72	26	12	88%	5.1	21.4%	7.7%	13.7%	3.6%	3.39	4.23	—
2026	25	AA RAW	PHI	9	3	23	114	11	18	4	33%	2.6	9.6%	15.8%	-6.1%	3.5%	8.22	6.21	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	PHI	1	1	6	26	3	3	1	100%	6.2	11.9%	12.4%	-0.5%	2.5%	5.41	5.41	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	112	476	86	47	17	—	—	18.1%	9.9%	8.2%	3.5%	4.50	5.69	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	PHI	15	15	103	436	61	52	11	100%	6.9	14.0%	11.9%	2.1%	2.5%	5.23	5.19	-0.3
2028	27	MLB MLE	PHI	15	15	102	429	63	50	11	100%	6.8	14.6%	11.7%	2.9%	2.6%	5.16	5.16	-0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	PHI	15	15	99	416	62	48	11	100%	6.6	14.9%	11.6%	3.2%	2.7%	5.16	5.20	-0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	PHI	14	14	94	398	59	47	11	100%	6.7	14.8%	11.8%	3.0%	2.9%	5.24	5.31	-0.4
2031	30	MLB MLE	PHI	13	13	88	374	54	45	12	100%	6.8	14.4%	12.1%	2.4%	3.1%	5.39	5.48	-0.6
2027	26	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	44	186	26	22	5	100%	6.3	14.0%	11.9%	2.1%	2.5%	5.23	5.19	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	PHI	9	9	64	270	40	32	7	100%	7.1	14.6%	11.7%	2.9%	2.6%	5.16	5.16	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	74	312	46	36	9	100%	6.7	14.9%	11.6%	3.2%	2.7%	5.16	5.20	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	77	325	48	38	9	100%	7.0	14.8%	11.8%	3.0%	2.9%	5.24	5.31	-0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	76	321	46	39	10	100%	6.9	14.4%	12.1%	2.4%	3.1%	5.39	5.48	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	50	335	1415	207	167	40	100%	6.7	14.6%	11.8%	2.8%	2.8%	5.24	4.90	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	124	100	24	100%	6.8	14.6%	11.8%	2.8%	2.8%	5.24	4.90	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		51	31	216	920	134	97	25	61%	4.2	14.6%	10.5%	4.0%	2.7%	4.12	4.67	-2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	29	200	851	124	90	23	61%	4.2	14.6%	10.5%	4.0%	2.7%	4.12	4.67	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Reese Dutton (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.41	11.9%	12.4%	2.5%	—	5.18	14.5%	2.7%	304	-0.23	—	—	—
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	88
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	84
Drew Gagnon R 2015 · 5.56 FIP	25	SP-	5.56	11.6%	12.6%	3.4%	.313	4.02	20.4%	12.2%	311	-1.54	3.71	534	82
Logan Shore R 2019 · 4.46 FIP	24	SP-	4.46	11.5%	10.5%	1.8%	.274	4.87	16.7%	6.3%	125	+0.41	3.09	386	82
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	82
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	82
Kevin Biondic R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	8.6%	11.0%	3.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	5.52	100	80
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	80
Mike McCarthy R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	27	SP-	4.78	9.4%	9.1%	2.4%	.280	5.03	6.2%	-3.5%	37	+0.25	4.78	153	80
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	79
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	79
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	79
Adam Panayotovich R 2017 · 5.45 FIP	25	SP-	5.45	9.6%	9.0%	3.7%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	121	79
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	79
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	79
Lauro Ramirez R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	25	SP-	5.80	9.5%	10.1%	4.1%	.382	4.99	7.2%	-3.4%	90	-0.81	4.99	140	78
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	78
Alex Sanabia R 2015 · 4.44 FIP	26	SP-	4.44	11.4%	7.9%	2.4%	.358	3.66	11.1%	6.2%	161	-0.78	3.42	378	77
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	77
Matt Solter R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	16.0%	11.0%	2.5%	.309	3.82	16.9%	4.3%	66	-0.66	3.82	224	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	93	14.2%	11.9%	1.05	5.26
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74