Reese Dutton
P
Jersey Shore BlueClaws
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
A+
peak 0.9 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION77 act + 74 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141132vR 123
ERA5.44
FIP5.44
K%11.9%
BB%12.8%
K-BB%-0.9%
ROS IP74
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 151 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 2 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 3.0 | 30.0% | 5.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.20 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 2 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 3.0 | 30.0% | 5.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.60 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 14 | 105 | 450 | 84 | 40 | 4 | 58% | 4.4 | 14.1% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 4.03 | 3.76 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 14 | 105 | 450 | 84 | 40 | 4 | 58% | 4.4 | 18.7% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 0.9% | 4.03 | 3.14 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 15 | 13 | 77 | 310 | 69 | 24 | 10 | 87% | 5.2 | 17.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 3.03 | 4.99 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 74 | 310 | 37 | 40 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 11.9% | 12.8% | -0.9% | 2.5% | 5.44 | 5.44 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11.9% | 12.8% | -0.9% | 2.5% | 5.44 | 5.44 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 151 | 620 | 106 | 64 | 18 | — | — | 17.1% | 10.3% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 5.21 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 11.9% | 12.8% | -0.9% | 2.5% | 5.44 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 74 | 310 | 44 | 38 | 8 | 100% | 6.7 | 14.1% | 12.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 5.27 | 5.23 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 72 | 306 | 45 | 37 | 8 | 100% | 6.6 | 14.8% | 12.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 5.20 | 5.20 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 10 | 10 | 70 | 296 | 45 | 36 | 8 | 100% | 7.0 | 15.1% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 5.21 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 5 | 5 | 32 | 135 | 19 | 17 | 3 | 100% | 6.4 | 14.1% | 12.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 5.27 | 5.23 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 7 | 7 | 46 | 194 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 100% | 6.6 | 14.8% | 12.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 5.20 | 5.20 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 8 | 8 | 53 | 224 | 34 | 27 | 6 | 100% | 6.6 | 15.1% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 5.21 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 19 | 19 | 130 | 550 | 81 | 67 | 14 | 100% | 6.9 | 14.8% | 12.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 5.22 | 4.85 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 30 | 30 | 200 | 844 | 124 | 103 | 21 | 100% | 6.7 | 14.8% | 12.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 5.22 | 4.85 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 41 | 27 | 188 | 780 | 123 | 75 | 17 | 66% | 4.6 | 15.7% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 3.49 | 4.18 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 29 | 200 | 828 | 130 | 80 | 18 | 66% | 4.6 | 15.7% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 3.49 | 4.18 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Reese Dutton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.44 | 11.9% | 12.8% | 2.5% | — | 5.22 | 14.7% | 2.4% | 216 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Boone Whiting R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.21 | 11.3% | 13.9% | 2.4% | .337 | 4.78 | 10.9% | 4.8% | 132 | -0.43 | 4.78 | 227 | 85 |
| Kevin Biondic R 2024 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.39 | 8.6% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.39 | 100 | 83 |
| Drew Gagnon R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.78 | 11.6% | 12.6% | 3.8% | .313 | 4.01 | 20.4% | 12.2% | 311 | -1.77 | 3.74 | 534 | 82 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2027 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.05 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 106 | 81 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 81 |
| Logan Shore R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.27 | 11.5% | 10.5% | 1.5% | .274 | 4.81 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 125 | +0.54 | 2.92 | 386 | 80 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2028 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 80 |
| Elliot Morris R 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 12.8% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 102 | 80 |
| Tanner Hall R 2024 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.39 | 10.1% | 14.7% | 2.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 137 | 78 |
| Keith Couch R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.63 | 9.8% | 9.4% | 2.1% | .326 | 3.92 | 11.0% | 3.6% | 127 | -0.71 | 3.92 | 252 | 77 |
| William Fleming R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.45 | 10.1% | 10.3% | 3.5% | .337 | 4.39 | 14.7% | 6.3% | 85 | -1.06 | 3.92 | 438 | 77 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 77 |
| Frank Batista R 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.33 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 118 | 77 |
| Mike McCarthy R 2028 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.79 | 9.4% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .280 | 4.77 | 6.2% | -3.5% | 37 | -0.02 | 4.77 | 153 | 77 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 77 |
| Braden Olthoff R 2024 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.57 | 12.5% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 108 | 77 |
| Adam Panayotovich R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.45 | 9.6% | 9.0% | 3.7% | .375 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 121 | 76 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2028 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 76 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.7% | .303 | 4.01 | 16.6% | 4.2% | 20 | -0.61 | 4.01 | 214 | 75 |
| Ryan Cardona R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.21 | 12.0% | 14.9% | 2.3% | .237 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 367 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 72 | 14.0% | 12.4% | 0.99 | 5.28 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |