Reese Dutton
P
Jersey Shore BlueClaws
+0.4
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.2 · 2028
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.1%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%9.2%
IP105
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2028
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 2 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 24 | 14 | 105 | 450 | 84 | 40 | 4 | 14.1% | 10.3% | 1.1% | 4.03 | 3.79 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 2 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | PHI | 19 | 19 | 105 | 443 | 85 | 44 | 11 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.5% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 113 | 471 | 93 | 45 | 11 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 2.3% | 4.15 | 4.15 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 20 | 20 | 112 | 473 | 94 | 45 | 12 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 4.42 | 4.40 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 21 | 21 | 115 | 486 | 98 | 46 | 13 | 20.1% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 21 | 21 | 116 | 488 | 98 | 46 | 13 | 20.1% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 4.41 | 4.42 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 21 | 21 | 113 | 477 | 95 | 45 | 13 | 20.0% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.46 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 20 | 20 | 110 | 462 | 92 | 44 | 13 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.49 | 4.52 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 19 | 19 | 106 | 446 | 87 | 43 | 13 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.55 | 4.60 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 18 | 18 | 102 | 429 | 83 | 42 | 12 | 19.3% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.63 | 4.68 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 18 | 18 | 97 | 409 | 78 | 41 | 12 | 19.0% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.78 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 17 | 17 | 92 | 389 | 73 | 40 | 12 | 18.6% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.82 | 4.89 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 67 | 38 | 12 | 18.3% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.93 | 5.01 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 15 | 15 | 81 | 343 | 61 | 37 | 11 | 17.8% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 5.06 | 5.15 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 28 | 14 | 119 | 498 | 78 | 48 | 5 | 15.6% | 9.7% | 1.0% | 3.55 | 3.54 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 24 | 200 | 837 | 131 | 81 | 8 | 15.6% | 9.7% | 1.0% | 3.55 | 3.54 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Reese Dutton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.5% | — | 4.41 | 20.0% | 10.5% | 343 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 93 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 90 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 90 |
| Corey Baker R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 1.5% | .295 | 5.02 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 170 | +1.25 | 3.08 | 267 | 90 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.93 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.16 | 4.10 | 218 | 89 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 88 |
| Chase Solesky R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.96 | 15.2% | 11.2% | 3.1% | .322 | 4.60 | 15.7% | 7.4% | 205 | -0.36 | 4.07 | 501 | 87 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.39 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .286 | 4.23 | 16.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.16 | 3.32 | 252 | 87 |
| Tyler Santana R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 15.4% | 10.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.12 | 14.4% | 3.5% | 146 | +0.66 | 3.37 | 353 | 87 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 87 |
| Scarlyn Reyes R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.5% | 10.4% | 1.6% | .296 | 4.66 | 13.8% | 3.2% | 189 | +0.49 | 4.17 | 317 | 87 |
| David Lebron R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.8% | .336 | 5.70 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +1.40 | 4.30 | 144 | 87 |
| Tim Atherton R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 87 |
| Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.29 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.1% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 199 | 86 |
| J.P. France R 2025 · 5.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.33 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.6% | .285 | 4.26 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -1.07 | 4.07 | 530 | 86 |
| Luke Irvine R 2028 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 86 |
| Logan Martin R 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.9% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 193 | 86 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 85 |
| Sam Highfill R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 85 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.4% | 13.7% | 3.7% | .277 | 6.22 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 12 | +0.84 | 4.02 | 262 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.7 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +0.4 | $2M | -$5M |
| Totals | $11M | $31M | +$20M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.