Darien Smith

P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 207 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	25	MIX2 levels	20	3	71	1.91	2.80	23.4%	7.2%	—	K 17.6% · BB 8.5% · FIP 3.53
2026	26	MIX3 levels	15	10	50	3.93	4.43	18.8%	10.8%	—	K 15.6% · BB 11.6% · FIP 5.26
2027PROJ	27	MLBSF	57	0	60	5.42	5.42	14.1%	11.2%	-0.6
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBSF	21	0	22	5.36	5.39	14.9%	11.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBSF	30	0	31	5.38	5.44	15.3%	11.3%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control45Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsDennis O'Grady (age 26) · Alfonso Sanchez (age 27) · Nolan Sanburn (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.42

FIP5.42

K%14.1%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%2.8%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	3	71	291	68	21	4	15%	3.5	17.6%	8.5%	9.1%	1.5%	1.91	3.53	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	3	71	291	68	21	4	15%	3.5	17.6%	8.5%	9.1%	1.5%	1.91	3.53	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	3	71	291	68	21	4	15%	3.5	23.4%	7.2%	16.2%	1.4%	1.91	2.80	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	10	50	213	40	23	6	67%	3.4	15.6%	11.6%	4.0%	3.7%	3.93	5.26	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	10	50	213	40	23	6	67%	3.4	15.6%	11.6%	4.0%	3.7%	3.93	5.26	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	10	50	213	40	23	6	67%	3.4	18.8%	10.8%	8.0%	2.8%	3.93	4.43	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	SF	57	0	60	253	36	28	8	0%	1.1	14.1%	11.2%	2.8%	3.1%	5.42	5.42	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	SF	55	0	58	244	36	27	8	0%	1.0	14.9%	11.2%	3.7%	3.2%	5.36	5.39	-0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	SF	52	0	55	233	36	26	8	0%	1.1	15.3%	11.3%	4.0%	3.3%	5.38	5.44	-0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	SF	21	0	22	93	14	10	3	0%	1.0	14.9%	11.2%	3.7%	3.2%	5.36	5.39	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	SF	30	0	31	131	20	15	4	0%	1.0	15.3%	11.3%	4.0%	3.3%	5.38	5.44	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	0	52	221	33	25	7	0%	1.0	15.1%	11.2%	3.9%	3.3%	5.37	5.04	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	126	96	27	0%	1.1	15.1%	11.2%	3.9%	3.3%	5.37	5.04	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		35	13	121	504	84	49	12	37%	3.5	16.7%	9.8%	6.9%	2.4%	2.75	4.26	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	21	200	833	139	82	20	37%	3.5	16.7%	9.8%	6.9%	2.4%	2.75	4.26	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Darien Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.42	14.1%	11.2%	3.1%	—	5.41	15.1%	3.8%	113	-0.01	—	—	—
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	85
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	83
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	83
Chris Jensen R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	27	SW	5.31	12.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	488	81
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	81
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	81
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	81
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	81
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	80
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	79
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	79
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	78
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	78
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	78
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	78
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	76
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	76
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	76
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	76
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	14.7%	11.2%	1.24	5.39
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*