Gabriel Silva
C Columbia Fireflies| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | A/ROKKC | 152 | .183/.282/.313 | 2 | 0 | -1 | — | .102/.174/.175 |
| 2025 | 21 | AKC | 77 | .206/.289/.412 | 4 | 0 | 18 | — | .114/.184/.214 |
| 2026 | 22 | AKC | 71 | .092/.157/.262 | 3 | 0 | -33 | — | .061/.114/.167 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBKC | 181 | .199/.261/.314 | 3 | 2 | 61 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBKC | 32 | .201/.263/.318 | 1 | 0 | 66 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 25 | MLBKC | 74 | .204/.267/.325 | 2 | 1 | 69 | 0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Royals White | — | 119 | 93 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 194 | 370 | 366 | 735 | 172 | 226 | 23 | 18 | 343 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL Royals | — | 90 | 81 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 185 | 258 | 358 | 616 | 173 | 255 | 36 | 6 | 274 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Royals | — | 139 | 118 | 30 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 50 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 254 | 362 | 424 | 786 | 169 | 400 | 36 | 12 | 352 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Columbia Fireflies | — | 98 | 87 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 184 | 260 | 322 | 582 | 138 | 341 | 46 | 9 | 259 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | ACL Royals | — | 54 | 44 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 182 | 321 | 295 | 616 | 114 | 276 | 28 | 15 | 286 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | — | 77 | 68 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 289 | 412 | 701 | 206 | 294 | 39 | 6 | 309 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A | Columbia Fireflies | — | 71 | 65 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 92 | 157 | 262 | 419 | 169 | 88 | 39 | 4 | 187 | -33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Royals White | — | 119 | 100 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 110 | 252 | 190 | 442 | 80 | 137 | 28 | 13 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 90 | 83 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 47 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 108 | 169 | 217 | 385 | 108 | 195 | 52 | 3 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 139 | 124 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 72 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 137 | 225 | 218 | 442 | 81 | 294 | 52 | 7 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 98 | 90 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 100 | 156 | 178 | 334 | 78 | 301 | 65 | 6 | 157 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 54 | 47 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 106 | 208 | 170 | 378 | 64 | 205 | 39 | 9 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 77 | 70 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 114 | 184 | 214 | 398 | 100 | 243 | 55 | 4 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 71 | 66 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 61 | 114 | 167 | 281 | 106 | 70 | 54 | 3 | 119 | -33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Royals White | — | 119 | 100 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 110 | 252 | 190 | 442 | 80 | 138 | 28 | 13 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Royals White | — | 119 | 93 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 194 | 370 | 366 | 735 | 172 | 226 | 23 | 18 | 343 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 90 | 83 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 47 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 108 | 169 | 217 | 385 | 108 | 200 | 52 | 3 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Royals | — | 90 | 81 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 185 | 258 | 358 | 616 | 173 | 255 | 36 | 6 | 274 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 139 | 124 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 72 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 137 | 225 | 218 | 442 | 81 | 294 | 52 | 7 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Royals | — | 139 | 118 | 30 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 50 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 254 | 362 | 424 | 786 | 169 | 400 | 36 | 12 | 352 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 152 | 137 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 84 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 117 | 188 | 197 | 385 | 80 | 283 | 55 | 7 | 168 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 152 | 131 | 24 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 60 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 183 | 282 | 313 | 595 | 130 | 314 | 39 | 11 | 268 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 77 | 70 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 114 | 184 | 214 | 398 | 100 | 231 | 55 | 4 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A RAW | Columbia Fireflies | — | 77 | 68 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 289 | 412 | 701 | 206 | 294 | 39 | 6 | 309 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 71 | 66 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 61 | 114 | 167 | 281 | 106 | 77 | 54 | 3 | 119 | -33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A RAW | Columbia Fireflies | — | 71 | 65 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 92 | 157 | 262 | 419 | 169 | 88 | 39 | 4 | 187 | -33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Royals White | — | 119 | 99 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 111 | 252 | 192 | 444 | 81 | 137 | 28 | 13 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 90 | 84 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 47 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 107 | 169 | 214 | 383 | 107 | 195 | 52 | 3 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 139 | 124 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 72 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 137 | 225 | 218 | 442 | 81 | 294 | 52 | 7 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 152 | 139 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 84 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 115 | 188 | 194 | 382 | 79 | 267 | 55 | 7 | 168 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 77 | 71 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 113 | 184 | 211 | 395 | 99 | 243 | 55 | 4 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 71 | 67 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 60 | 114 | 164 | 278 | 104 | 70 | 54 | 3 | 119 | -33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 152 | 139 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 84 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 115 | 188 | 194 | 382 | 79 | 267 | 55 | 7 | 168 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 77 | 71 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 113 | 184 | 211 | 395 | 99 | 243 | 55 | 4 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 71 | 67 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 60 | 114 | 164 | 278 | 104 | 70 | 54 | 3 | 119 | -33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | KC | 0% | 181 | 165 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 199 | 261 | 314 | 574 | 115 | 286 | 33 | 7 | 259 | 61 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | KC | 30% | 107 | 98 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 203 | 266 | 325 | 590 | 121 | 287 | 33 | 7 | 265 | 66 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | KC | 44% | 167 | 152 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 54 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 206 | 269 | 333 | 602 | 126 | 287 | 32 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | KC | 51% | 227 | 206 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 72 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 209 | 272 | 339 | 611 | 130 | 287 | 32 | 7 | 274 | 72 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | KC | 52% | 265 | 242 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 83 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 209 | 274 | 340 | 613 | 130 | 287 | 31 | 7 | 275 | 72 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | KC | 53% | 290 | 265 | 56 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 90 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 209 | 274 | 338 | 612 | 129 | 286 | 31 | 7 | 275 | 72 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | KC | 53% | 296 | 270 | 57 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 93 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 207 | 271 | 332 | 603 | 125 | 285 | 31 | 7 | 271 | 70 | -11 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB MLE | KC | 52% | 298 | 272 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 94 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 204 | 267 | 324 | 592 | 120 | 282 | 32 | 7 | 266 | 66 | -12 | -0 | -2 | +5 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | KC | 30% | 32 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 263 | 318 | 581 | 117 | 285 | 31 | 6 | 262 | 66 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | KC | 44% | 74 | 68 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 267 | 325 | 592 | 122 | 285 | 32 | 7 | 266 | 69 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | KC | 51% | 115 | 105 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 206 | 270 | 331 | 601 | 125 | 285 | 31 | 7 | 270 | 72 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | KC | 52% | 139 | 126 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 44 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 207 | 271 | 332 | 603 | 125 | 285 | 32 | 7 | 271 | 72 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | KC | 53% | 155 | 141 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 48 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 207 | 271 | 330 | 602 | 124 | 284 | 31 | 7 | 271 | 72 | -5 | -0 | -0 | +3 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | KC | 53% | 155 | 141 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 49 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 269 | 324 | 593 | 120 | 283 | 32 | 7 | 267 | 70 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB CTX | KC | 52% | 155 | 141 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 49 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 265 | 317 | 582 | 116 | 280 | 32 | 7 | 262 | 66 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 825 | 752 | 154 | 30 | 5 | 18 | 58 | 260 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 205 | 271 | 330 | 601 | 125 | 284 | 32 | 7 | 268 | 53 | -29 | +0 | -2 | +15 | +18 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 592 | 122 | 24 | 4 | 14 | 46 | 205 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 206 | 272 | 331 | 604 | 125 | 286 | 32 | 7 | 268 | 53 | -23 | +0 | -2 | +12 | +14 | 0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2349 | 2132 | 386 | 80 | 10 | 49 | 161 | 854 | 36 | 19 | 14 | 181 | 250 | 297 | 547 | 116 | 272 | 36 | 7 | 247 | 53 | -62 | +1 | -4 | +30 | +37 | 0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 107 | 22 | 3 | 14 | 45 | 236 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 181 | 252 | 300 | 552 | 119 | 271 | 36 | 7 | 247 | 53 | -24 | +0 | -2 | +12 | +14 | 0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AColumbia Fireflies · 71 PAwOBA .182 → .119 (−63)K% 39.4% → 53.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.44% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 53.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 2.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.82% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 2.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 2.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 4.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 6.42% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .182 → .119; ISO .169 → .106; BABIP .088 → .070. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AColumbia Fireflies · 77 PAwOBA .301 → .195 (−105)K% 39.0% → 53.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.96% | ÷0.982 | ×1.360 | — | — | 53.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.49% | ÷1.006 | ×0.690 | — | — | 4.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.90% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 3.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.099 | ×0.920 | — | — | 17.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.913 | ×0.830 | — | — | 4.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.937 | ×0.910 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.53% | ÷1.086 | ×0.800 | — | — | 7.76% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 120, 2B 83, 3B 87, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .301 → .195; ISO .206 → .122; BABIP .294 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AColumbia Fireflies · 98 PAwOBA .255 → .157 (−98)K% 45.9% → 64.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 45.92% | ÷0.964 | ×1.360 | — | — | 64.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.18% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 6.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.037 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 19.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷0.935 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 8.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.008 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 2.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.020 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.79% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 107, 2B 87, 3B 102, K 93, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .255 → .157; ISO .138 → .079; BABIP .341 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Royals · 54 PAwOBA .280 → .187 (−93)K% 27.8% → 38.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.78% | ÷1.036 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.81% | ÷1.010 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 8.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.85% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.34% | ÷1.029 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 8.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 17.24% | ÷0.986 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 12.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.979 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.949 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 106, 2B 97, 3B 96, K 107, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .280 → .187; ISO .114 → .078; BABIP .276 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Royals · 139 PAwOBA .346 → .211 (−134)K% 36.0% → 51.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.97% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 51.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.51% | ÷0.982 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 7.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.88% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.47% | ÷1.029 | ×0.820 | ×0.973 | ×0.995 | 20.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.973 | ×0.995 | 8.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.932 | ×0.720 | ×0.973 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 4.57% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 106, 2B 100, 3B 86, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .346 → .211; ISO .169 → .100; BABIP .400 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Royals · 90 PAwOBA .270 → .165 (−105)K% 35.6% → 51.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.56% | ÷0.991 | ×1.440 | — | — | 51.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷1.034 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 3.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.33% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 2.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.969 | ×0.820 | ×0.959 | ×1.008 | 11.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.20% | ÷0.958 | ×0.720 | ×0.959 | ×1.008 | 7.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.991 | ×0.720 | ×0.959 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.12% | ÷1.035 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 4.65% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 94, 2B 92, 3B 98, K 98, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .270 → .165; ISO .173 → .101; BABIP .255 → .195. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Royals White · 119 PAwOBA .335 → .214 (−121)K% 22.7% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.69% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 13.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.36% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 2.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 9.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 3.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 2.87% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .335 → .214; ISO .172 → .088; BABIP .226 → .137. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).