Alfredo Zarraga
P
Montgomery Biscuits
+0.4
WAR
Age 25
RHP
5'11" / 158 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.7%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%12.9%
IP59
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 17 | 0 | 19 | 77 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 29.6% | 11.8% | 1.9% | 1.93 | 3.16 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 22 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 42 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 80 | 31 | 7 | 23.0% | 12.2% | 2.6% | 2.71 | 4.15 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 46 | 1 | 57 | 250 | 76 | 32 | 4 | 25.1% | 13.9% | 1.9% | 3.47 | 3.78 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 3 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 10 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.59 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | TB | 59 | — | 59 | 247 | 59 | 27 | 7 | 23.7% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TB | 59 | — | 59 | 247 | 59 | 26 | 7 | 23.9% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.37 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TB | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 59 | 26 | 7 | 23.9% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TB | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 58 | 26 | 7 | 23.8% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | TB | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 56 | 25 | 7 | 23.7% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | TB | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 54 | 25 | 7 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | TB | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 51 | 24 | 7 | 23.2% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | TB | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 49 | 23 | 7 | 23.0% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | TB | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 46 | 23 | 7 | 22.7% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | TB | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 43 | 22 | 6 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | TB | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 40 | 21 | 6 | 21.9% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 4.92 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | TB | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 36 | 20 | 6 | 21.5% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 5.04 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 108 | 1 | 148 | 630 | 160 | 80 | 15 | 25.4% | 12.7% | 2.3% | 2.86 | 3.84 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 146 | 1 | 200 | 853 | 217 | 108 | 20 | 25.4% | 12.7% | 2.3% | 2.86 | 3.84 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alfredo Zarraga (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 23.7% | 10.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.38 | 23.9% | 13.3% | 174 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 94 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 93 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .311 | 5.44 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.41 | 152 | 91 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 89 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 89 |
| Dusty Isaacs R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.97 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .255 | 4.63 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.66 | 3.16 | 253 | 89 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 88 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 3.0% | .331 | 4.32 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 122 | +0.00 | 3.48 | 290 | 88 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.25 | 22.7% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .232 | 4.70 | 20.0% | 8.7% | 139 | +0.45 | 3.60 | 246 | 88 |
| Cody Tucker R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.99 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.1% | .272 | 5.30 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.31 | 4.99 | 105 | 88 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.73 | 24.0% | 12.6% | 1.9% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 104 | 87 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 87 |
| Ben Hecht R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.51 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.1% | .293 | 7.98 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.47 | 4.42 | 155 | 87 |
| Jake Barrett R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.64 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .250 | 3.83 | 24.1% | 12.5% | 118 | +0.19 | 1.48 | 230 | 87 |
| Steven Wilson R 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 27.2% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .271 | 3.68 | 29.3% | 19.9% | 92 | -0.34 | 3.61 | 311 | 86 |
| Grant Hartwig R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.84 | 21.2% | 10.8% | 2.1% | .330 | 3.91 | 21.7% | 11.3% | 61 | +0.07 | 2.52 | 179 | 86 |
| Darin Gillies R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.82 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 4.2% | .294 | 4.84 | 23.2% | 12.8% | 106 | +0.02 | 4.22 | 295 | 86 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .313 | 3.35 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.33 | 2.78 | 312 | 86 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 25.8% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .214 | 3.12 | 25.0% | 15.3% | 55 | -0.77 | 2.59 | 156 | 86 |
| Gavin Hollowell R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.69 | 21.7% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .273 | 3.93 | 27.1% | 13.7% | 63 | -0.76 | 2.39 | 191 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $4M | $7M | +$3M | ||