Alfredo Zarraga — OGILVIE

Alfredo Zarraga P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 26 RHP 5'11" / 158 lbs AA

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 40 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%23.9%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP40

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	19	77	29	9	1	0%	1.1	29.6%	11.8%	17.8%	2.0%	1.93	3.18	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	19	77	29	9	1	0%	1.1	37.7%	11.7%	26.0%	1.3%	1.93	2.14	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	66	280	80	31	7	0%	1.6	23.0%	12.2%	10.8%	2.7%	2.71	4.16	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	66	280	80	31	7	0%	1.6	28.6%	11.1%	17.5%	2.5%	2.71	3.46	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	57	250	76	32	4	2%	1.2	24.9%	13.3%	11.7%	1.9%	3.47	3.73	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	57	250	76	32	4	2%	1.2	24.9%	13.3%	11.7%	1.9%	3.47	3.73	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	57	250	76	32	4	2%	1.2	30.4%	12.8%	17.6%	1.6%	3.47	3.03	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	3	0	6	23	10	2	1	0%	1.9	43.5%	8.7%	34.8%	4.3%	1.59	2.92	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	3	0	6	23	10	2	1	0%	1.9	43.5%	8.7%	34.8%	4.3%	1.59	2.92	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	3	0	6	23	10	2	1	0%	1.9	43.5%	8.7%	34.8%	4.3%	1.59	2.92	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TB	38	0	40	169	40	19	5	0%	1.1	23.9%	11.1%	12.8%	2.9%	4.48	4.48	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TB	37	0	39	166	40	18	5	0%	1.1	23.8%	11.0%	12.8%	3.0%	4.49	4.50	+0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	TB	14	0	15	63	15	7	2	0%	1.1	23.8%	11.0%	12.8%	3.0%	4.49	4.50	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	62	15	7	2	0%	1.1	23.8%	11.0%	12.8%	3.0%	4.49	4.12	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	95	27	0%	1.1	23.8%	11.0%	12.8%	3.0%	4.49	4.12	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		108	1	148	630	160	78	15	1%	1.4	25.3%	12.5%	12.9%	2.3%	2.86	3.82	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	1	200	853	216	106	20	1%	1.4	25.3%	12.5%	12.9%	2.3%	2.86	3.82	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alfredo Zarraga (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	23.9%	11.1%	2.9%	—	4.50	23.8%	12.8%	39	+0.02	—	—	—
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	94
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	92
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	92
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	92
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.36	21.4%	10.8%	92	+0.05	3.89	168	89
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	88
Scott Dohmann R 2004 · 4.44 FIP	26	SU	4.44	24.7%	9.6%	4.0%	.270	4.80	20.6%	8.5%	112	+0.36	4.28	173	88
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	88
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	88
Jose Veras R 2008 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	24.9%	9.1%	2.8%	.281	4.10	23.8%	11.7%	169	+0.43	3.37	422	87
Shawn Armstrong R 2017 · 4.21 FIP	26	SU	4.21	22.1%	9.2%	3.3%	.282	3.18	26.9%	17.2%	144	-1.03	1.79	653	86
Chaz Roe R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	25.3%	10.5%	3.1%	.259	2.81	24.6%	16.2%	133	-1.21	1.72	279	86
Matt Pushard R 2024 · 3.87 FIP	26	SU	3.87	24.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	3.29	22.2%	14.0%	115	-0.58	2.84	220	86
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	86
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	85
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	85
Jackson Hicks R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	22.6%	10.5%	2.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	116	85
Cale Coshow R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	26	SU	4.59	23.1%	10.9%	3.8%	.300	3.68	23.0%	12.8%	63	-0.91	3.08	377	85
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	85
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	40	23.9%	11.0%	1.15	4.48
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16