Alfredo Zarraga
P
Montgomery Biscuits
Age 25
RHP
5'11" / 158 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 41 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
K%23.7%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%12.9%
ROS IP41
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 0 | 19 | 77 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.6% | 11.8% | 17.8% | 2.1% | 1.93 | 3.25 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 0 | 19 | 77 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 37.7% | 11.7% | 26.0% | 1.3% | 1.93 | 2.14 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 80 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 23.0% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 2.5% | 2.71 | 4.08 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 80 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 28.6% | 11.1% | 17.5% | 2.5% | 2.71 | 3.46 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 1 | 57 | 250 | 76 | 32 | 4 | 2% | 1.2 | 25.1% | 13.9% | 11.2% | 2.0% | 3.47 | 3.82 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 1 | 57 | 250 | 76 | 32 | 4 | 2% | 1.2 | 30.4% | 12.8% | 17.6% | 1.6% | 3.47 | 3.03 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 3 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.9 | 43.5% | 8.7% | 34.8% | 4.3% | 1.59 | 2.92 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 3 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.9 | 43.5% | 8.7% | 34.8% | 4.3% | 1.59 | 2.92 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | TB | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 41 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 10.8% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TB | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 41 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TB | 38 | 0 | 40 | 171 | 41 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 10.6% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TB | 37 | 0 | 39 | 166 | 39 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TB | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.37 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TB | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 26 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 10.6% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TB | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 70 | 0 | 73 | 309 | 74 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.05 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 202 | 90 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.05 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 108 | 1 | 148 | 630 | 160 | 80 | 15 | 1% | 1.4 | 25.4% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | 2.86 | 3.83 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 146 | 1 | 200 | 853 | 217 | 108 | 20 | 1% | 1.4 | 25.4% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | 2.86 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alfredo Zarraga (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 23.7% | 10.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.42 | 23.8% | 13.2% | 121 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 93 |
| Zach Franklin R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.53 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 4.31 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 97 | +0.78 | 3.48 | 138 | 92 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 91 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 91 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 89 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.57 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .284 | 3.71 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | +0.14 | 3.05 | 290 | 88 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.36 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.39 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.36 | 152 | 88 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.70 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.67 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 50 | -0.03 | 3.17 | 153 | 87 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.14 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .331 | 4.88 | 18.1% | 8.6% | 167 | +0.74 | 3.34 | 334 | 87 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 87 |
| Dusty Isaacs R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.81 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.4% | .255 | 4.69 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.88 | 3.16 | 253 | 87 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.72 | 28.1% | 11.7% | 2.8% | .282 | 4.81 | 20.3% | 2.9% | 127 | +1.09 | 3.72 | 197 | 87 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 22.7% | 11.0% | 3.1% | .232 | 4.66 | 20.0% | 8.7% | 139 | +0.40 | 3.45 | 289 | 86 |
| Gavin Hollowell R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.35 | 21.7% | 10.7% | 3.1% | .273 | 3.78 | 28.1% | 13.4% | 81 | -0.57 | 2.30 | 208 | 86 |
| Ben Hecht R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 86 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.46 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .244 | 3.76 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.30 | 3.23 | 253 | 86 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2025 · 3.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.58 | 24.0% | 12.6% | 1.7% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 104 | 86 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.52 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .245 | 5.01 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.49 | 3.00 | 246 | 86 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 86 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.24 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .286 | 6.43 | 14.1% | 7.0% | 24 | +2.19 | 4.09 | 183 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 40 | 23.8% | 10.7% | 1.12 | 4.40 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |