Kevin Guerrero — OGILVIE

Kevin GuerreroOF Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 23 R/R 6'3" / 165 lbs A HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 147 proj PA

wRC+†47

AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .251 / .265

PA147

HR1

K%28

BB%7

ISO74

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	159	131	34	3	1	0	23	33	2	13	3	260	378	298	676	38	340	21	14	315	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	140	110	16	1	0	1	29	48	0	5	2	145	324	182	506	36	242	34	21	259	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	17	14	2	0	1	0	2	6	1	0	0	143	294	286	580	143	250	35	12	274	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	130	119	33	3	1	4	9	38	0	4	3	277	328	420	748	143	367	29	7	328	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	264	244	50	10	3	2	17	85	1	7	6	205	260	295	555	90	302	32	6	250	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	276	242	57	11	1	2	30	81	1	6	9	236	322	314	636	79	344	29	11	292	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	159	139	27	2	1	0	15	41	2	13	3	194	282	223	505	29	253	26	9	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	140	121	13	1	0	1	18	70	0	5	2	107	223	140	364	33	217	50	13	172	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	17	15	2	0	1	0	1	8	1	0	0	133	235	267	502	133	234	47	6	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	130	123	22	2	1	3	5	56	0	4	3	179	211	285	495	106	274	43	4	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	264	249	40	6	3	2	12	112	1	7	6	161	202	233	435	72	274	42	5	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	276	251	48	9	1	2	21	111	1	6	9	191	256	259	515	68	327	40	8	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	159	139	27	2	1	0	15	41	2	13	3	194	282	223	505	29	270	26	9	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	159	131	34	3	1	0	23	33	2	13	3	260	378	298	676	38	340	21	14	315	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	140	121	13	1	0	1	18	70	0	5	2	107	223	140	364	33	235	50	13	172	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	—	140	110	16	1	0	1	29	48	0	5	2	145	324	182	506	36	242	34	21	259	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	147	137	23	2	1	3	7	64	1	4	3	168	214	263	477	95	278	44	5	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	147	133	35	3	2	4	11	44	1	4	3	263	324	406	730	143	356	30	7	322	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	264	249	40	6	3	2	12	112	1	7	6	161	202	233	435	72	277	42	5	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	264	244	50	10	3	2	17	85	1	7	6	205	260	295	555	90	302	32	6	250	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	276	251	48	9	1	2	21	111	1	6	9	191	256	259	515	68	331	40	8	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	276	242	57	11	1	2	30	81	1	6	9	236	322	314	636	79	344	29	11	292	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	159	141	27	2	1	0	15	41	2	13	3	191	282	220	502	28	253	26	9	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	140	121	13	1	0	1	18	70	0	5	2	107	223	140	364	33	217	50	13	172	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	147	138	23	2	1	3	7	64	1	4	3	167	214	261	475	94	269	44	5	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	264	249	40	6	3	2	12	112	1	7	6	161	202	233	435	72	274	42	5	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	276	252	48	9	1	2	21	111	1	6	9	190	256	258	514	67	327	40	8	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	264	249	40	6	3	2	12	112	1	7	6	161	202	233	435	72	274	42	5	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	276	252	48	9	1	2	21	111	1	6	9	190	256	258	514	67	327	40	8	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BAL	0%	386	355	69	14	2	3	25	109	3	7	3	193	253	267	520	74	267	28	6	238	47	-24	+0	+0	-2	+8	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	BAL	30%	170	156	31	6	1	2	11	47	1	3	1	199	259	286	545	86	270	28	6	248	54	-9	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.7
2028	24	MLB CTX	BAL	30%	51	48	10	2	0	1	3	14	0	1	0	202	262	291	554	89	274	27	6	251	54	-3	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	51	48	10	2	0	1	3	14	0	1	0	208	255	312	567	104	273	27	6	251	32	-3	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	612	127	25	0	13	38	178	0	13	0	208	254	312	566	105	271	27	6	251	32	-36	+3	+0	-4	+14	-2.3
Career	—	MLE		—	1303	1188	208	31	8	11	94	486	7	41	25	175	240	242	482	67	281	37	7	216	32	-19	+0	+0	-2	+7	-1.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	103	15	4	5	47	242	3	20	12	174	238	238	476	64	279	37	7	216	32	-38	+1	+0	-4	+14	-2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kevin Guerrero (OGILVIE)	23	30	25	45	40	192/251/265	73	267	1	3	28%	7%	47	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jon Murphy 2013 · A	23	37	38→30	47→50	39	183/234/259	76	262	5	13	31%	5%	39	-3.1	196/249/259	63	303	3	10	34%	6%	45	-2.7	190/244/242	52	297	3	10	35%	6%	35	-1.8
✕Carlos Torres 2016 · A	23	36	38→30	46→50	37	180/220/257	76	248	6	7	30%	4%	32	-3.6	208/248/279	71	283	4	6	26%	4%	48	-2.5	215/244/266	51	284	2	3	24%	3%	39	-1.2
✕Misael Urbina 2024 · A	22	35→32	39→40	47→50	44	172/248/261	89	251	6	9	32%	8%	46	-2.6	189/269/280	91	269	6	9	29%	9%	58	-1.7	182/269/271	88	253	6	9	28%	10%	53	-1.1
✕Bubba Hollins 2019 · A	23	38	39→30	44→45	43	187/256/267	80	242	7	6	25%	6%	50	-2.3	206/264/286	80	268	5	4	24%	6%	57	-1.8	199/260/270	71	265	4	3	25%	5%	49	-1.1
✕Alexis Bastardo 2017 · A	23	40	35→40	50→55	39	190/245/246	56	274	2	10	30%	5%	40	-3.1	200/246/273	73	279	5	13	29%	5%	47	-2.6	189/226/255	66	254	6	20	28%	4%	32	-1.4
✕Connor Justus 2018 · A	23	39→37	38→40	46→45	45	188/271/264	76	269	5	9	30%	8%	55	-1.9	179/259/251	72	255	5	8	29%	8%	48	-2.5	163/242/223	60	236	4	6	30%	7%	33	-2.4
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→30	50→45	40	185/239/261	76	255	4	8	28%	6%	42	-2.9	210/271/302	92	296	8	10	30%	7%	63	-1.4	202/270/282	80	285	9	12	31%	7%	57	-0.4
✕Toby Gardenhire 2006 · A	23	40	35→30	47→40	40	192/248/251	58	267	3	7	28%	5%	42	-2.9	197/241/238	41	264	1	4	24%	5%	36	-3.4	234/286/262	28	285	1	3	17%	5%	54	-0.9
✕Ariel Montesino 2019 · A	23	39	37→40	47→50	41	189/237/261	72	256	4	9	27%	6%	40	-3.1	187/238/270	83	284	5	10	34%	5%	43	-2.8	131/180/196	65	213	3	13	38%	4%	5	-1.5
✕Jack Winkler 2022 · A	23	40→41	38→40	48→55	40	193/248/273	79	268	4	10	28%	6%	47	-2.5	205/268/294	89	269	7	14	25%	6%	60	-1.6	190/257/276	86	252	7	18	26%	6%	49	-1.7
✕Nick Lovullo 2017 · A	23	38	36→30	45→40	38	187/231/253	66	265	4	6	30%	5%	36	-3.4	200/254/264	64	266	4	5	25%	6%	47	-2.5	191/247/244	54	255	3	3	25%	6%	37	-1.6
✕Bryan Johns 2012 · A	23	40	36→30	47→45	36	190/237/256	66	288	4	7	34%	5%	39	-3.1	195/269/258	63	278	3	6	28%	8%	53	-2.1	180/263/233	53	255	2	5	27%	8%	44	-1.0
✕Daniel Berg 2008 · A	23	36	39→40	45→40	38	178/242/260	81	271	6	4	35%	6%	42	-2.9	202/271/288	86	309	6	4	34%	7%	60	-1.6	200/276/284	83	307	6	2	34%	7%	59	-0.8
✕Joey Armstrong 2016 · A	22	38	37→40	44→45	43	187/245/256	69	259	5	5	29%	7%	42	-2.9	207/272/286	79	305	4	7	31%	7%	60	-1.6	206/279/285	79	309	4	8	32%	7%	58	-0.8
✕Richard Nunez 2018 · A	23	39	35→30	48→55	50	183/265/240	57	241	2	12	24%	9%	47	-2.5	194/264/277	83	272	5	7	28%	8%	55	-2.0	188/264/281	93	239	9	3	24%	9%	54	-0.3
✕Ricky Eusebio 2017 · A	23	42→40	38→40	45	42	203/260/283	80	269	6	8	26%	6%	55	-2.0	205/259/318	113	287	10	6	31%	6%	62	-1.4	157/208/317	159	213	17	0	35%	5%	40	-0.7
✕Pedruin Bautista 2007 · A	23	36	35→40	48→60	43	171/237/228	57	248	2	11	30%	7%	33	-3.6	194/285/269	75	245	3	19	20%	10%	61	-1.5	180/297/260	80	210	2	33	14%	12%	65	-0.6
✕Jay Baum 2016 · A	23	41→39	35→40	47→50	41	193/243/253	60	271	2	13	29%	6%	40	-3.0	197/247/283	86	265	7	10	27%	6%	49	-2.4	189/240/278	88	246	8	10	26%	5%	44	-1.7
✕Roberto Baldoquin 2017 · A	23	41	34→30	41→45	37	195/239/245	50	287	2	6	32%	5%	36	-3.3	211/257/284	73	299	4	7	29%	5%	53	-2.1	211/255/282	72	294	4	6	28%	4%	49	-1.1
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	34	36→40	46→50	48	162/233/224	62	208	4	10	23%	8%	32	-3.7	181/263/263	82	249	5	10	27%	9%	52	-2.2	164/271/256	91	205	6	12	21%	11%	53	-0.9