Alec Baker

P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 202 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	31	3	69	3.00	2.93	23.7%	7.1%	—	K 17.9% · BB 6.8% · FIP 3.61
2025	25	MIX2 levels	28	15	86	5.73	5.36	16.2%	8.6%	—	K 13.0% · BB 9.5% · FIP 5.42
2026	26	AAARI	32	1	68	7.28	6.29	19.2%	9.6%	—	K 15.6% · BB 10.6% · FIP 7.14
2027PROJ	27	MLBARI	67	0	70	6.10	6.10	12.7%	11.1%	-1.2
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBARI	25	0	26	5.97	6.01	13.6%	11.1%	-0.4
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBARI	34	0	36	5.94	6.01	14.1%	11.2%	-0.6

Next 3 projected WAR -2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control50Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsVanny Valenzuela (age 27) · Fernando Cruz (age 25) · Cooper Adams (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149141vR 133

ERA6.10

FIP6.10

K%12.7%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%1.5%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	1	20	83	28	5	3	8%	1.6	22.1%	6.2%	15.9%	6.8%	4.43	5.77	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	1	20	83	28	5	3	8%	1.6	33.7%	6.0%	27.7%	3.6%	4.43	3.00	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	3	69	295	70	21	5	10%	2.2	17.9%	6.8%	11.1%	2.1%	3.00	3.61	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	3	69	295	70	21	5	10%	2.2	17.9%	6.8%	11.1%	2.1%	3.00	3.61	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	3	69	295	70	21	5	10%	2.2	23.7%	7.1%	16.6%	1.7%	3.00	2.93	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	15	86	396	64	34	17	54%	3.1	13.0%	9.5%	3.4%	4.0%	5.73	5.42	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	15	86	396	64	34	17	54%	3.1	13.0%	9.5%	3.4%	4.0%	5.73	5.42	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	15	86	396	64	34	17	54%	3.1	16.2%	8.6%	7.6%	4.3%	5.73	5.36	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	32	1	68	312	60	30	19	3%	2.1	15.6%	10.6%	5.0%	7.3%	7.28	7.14	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	32	1	68	312	60	30	19	3%	2.1	15.6%	10.6%	5.0%	7.3%	7.28	7.14	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	32	1	68	312	60	30	19	3%	2.1	19.2%	9.6%	9.6%	6.1%	7.28	6.29	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	ARI	67	0	70	296	37	33	12	0%	1.0	12.7%	11.1%	1.5%	4.2%	6.10	6.10	-1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	ARI	65	0	68	287	39	32	12	0%	1.0	13.6%	11.1%	2.5%	4.1%	5.97	6.01	-1.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	ARI	62	0	65	274	39	31	11	0%	1.0	14.1%	11.2%	2.9%	4.2%	5.94	6.01	-1.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	ARI	25	0	26	110	15	12	5	0%	1.0	13.6%	11.1%	2.5%	4.1%	5.97	6.01	-0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	ARI	34	0	36	152	21	17	6	0%	1.1	14.1%	11.2%	2.9%	4.2%	5.94	6.01	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	260	36	29	11	0%	1.0	13.9%	11.1%	2.8%	4.2%	5.95	5.63	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	117	94	36	0%	1.1	13.9%	11.1%	2.8%	4.2%	5.95	5.63	-2.5
Career	—	MLE		104	20	244	1086	171	96	51	19%	2.3	15.8%	8.8%	6.9%	4.7%	5.28	5.45	-2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	16	200	891	140	79	42	19%	2.3	15.8%	8.8%	6.9%	4.7%	5.28	5.45	-3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alec Baker (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.10	12.7%	11.1%	4.2%	—	6.01	13.9%	2.7%	133	-0.09	—	—	—
Vanny Valenzuela R 2015 · 6.82 FIP	27	SW	6.82	12.4%	14.8%	5.3%	.314	4.29	15.8%	4.6%	70	-2.53	3.26	118	81
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	81
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	81
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	80
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	80
Andrew Gross R 2022 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	13.7%	10.6%	5.0%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	2.44	116	79
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	79
Oscar Verdugo R 2017 · 6.31 FIP	27	SU	6.31	10.3%	13.8%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	144	78
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	78
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	78
Brad Allen R 2016 · 5.82 FIP	27	SW	5.82	14.7%	13.2%	4.2%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	149	78
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	77
Scott Burke R 2019 · 5.27 FIP	25	SU	5.27	14.9%	8.2%	4.3%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	119	77
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	76
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	75
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	75
Tyler Mizenko R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	13.3%	10.2%	3.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	104	75
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	75
Nelson Gonzalez R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	15.3%	13.7%	2.6%	.239	5.79	17.4%	6.7%	96	+0.79	3.42	258	75
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	13.4%	11.1%	1.61	6.01
Dave Stevens ('00)	1.3	50	14.6%	11.3%	1.76	6.02
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Russ Swan ('89-'94, -2 WAR*)	1.3	89	12.3%*	9.9%*	1.13*	5.09*
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*