Garrett Burhenn

P Erie SeaWolves

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.8 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	A+DET	24	18	94	4.04	3.51	17.6%	7.3%	—	K 13.5% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.39
2024	24	MIX2 levels	27	26	122	3.68	3.50	23.7%	8.1%	—	K 19.0% · BB 9.0% · FIP 4.42
2025	25	AADET	26	24	125	4.18	3.66	21.4%	6.3%	—	K 17.3% · BB 6.9% · FIP 4.30
2027PROJ	27	MLBDET	14	14	87	4.66	4.66	16.8%	7.1%	0.2
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBDET	5	5	32	4.59	4.63	17.2%	7.3%	0.1
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBDET	8	8	45	4.65	4.72	17.3%	7.6%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control60Command50

CompsNestor Molina (age 27) · Shawn Haviland (age 29) · Jared Mortensen (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%16.8%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%9.7%

Proj IP87

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	92	395	112	26	14	91%	4.2	21.1%	7.7%	13.3%	3.8%	4.01	4.40	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	92	395	112	26	14	91%	4.2	28.4%	6.6%	21.8%	3.5%	4.01	3.49	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	24	18	94	398	70	29	7	75%	3.9	13.5%	8.4%	5.2%	2.5%	4.04	4.39	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	24	18	94	398	70	29	7	75%	3.9	17.6%	7.3%	10.3%	1.8%	4.04	3.51	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	122	518	123	42	13	96%	4.5	19.0%	9.0%	10.0%	3.3%	3.68	4.42	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	122	518	123	42	13	96%	4.5	19.0%	9.0%	10.0%	3.3%	3.68	4.42	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	122	518	123	42	13	96%	4.5	23.7%	8.1%	15.6%	2.5%	3.68	3.50	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	26	24	125	523	112	33	15	92%	4.8	17.3%	6.9%	10.4%	3.3%	4.18	4.30	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	26	24	125	523	112	33	15	92%	4.8	17.3%	6.9%	10.4%	3.3%	4.18	4.30	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	26	24	125	523	112	33	15	92%	4.8	21.4%	6.3%	15.1%	2.9%	4.18	3.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	DET	14	14	87	367	62	26	11	100%	6.2	16.8%	7.1%	9.7%	3.1%	4.66	4.66	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	DET	14	14	84	356	61	26	11	100%	6.0	17.2%	7.3%	9.9%	3.2%	4.66	4.70	+0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	81	340	59	26	11	100%	6.2	17.3%	7.6%	9.7%	3.3%	4.73	4.80	+0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	76	320	61	23	11	100%	5.8	19.2%	7.1%	12.1%	3.5%	4.68	4.68	+0.2
2031	31	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	71	299	56	22	11	100%	5.9	18.9%	7.5%	11.4%	3.7%	4.79	4.87	+0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	DET	5	5	32	135	23	10	4	100%	6.4	17.2%	7.3%	9.9%	3.0%	4.59	4.63	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	45	190	33	14	6	100%	5.6	17.3%	7.6%	9.7%	3.2%	4.65	4.72	+0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	52	220	42	16	7	100%	5.8	19.2%	7.1%	12.1%	3.3%	4.60	4.60	+0.1
2031	31	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	54	228	43	17	8	100%	6.0	18.9%	7.5%	11.4%	3.6%	4.70	4.78	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		30	30	182	770	141	57	25	100%	6.1	18.3%	7.4%	10.9%	3.3%	4.64	4.31	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	155	63	27	100%	6.0	18.3%	7.4%	10.9%	3.3%	4.64	4.31	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		99	88	433	1834	326	147	59	89%	4.4	17.8%	8.0%	9.8%	3.2%	3.97	4.37	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	41	200	847	151	68	27	89%	4.4	17.8%	8.0%	9.8%	3.2%	3.97	4.37	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Garrett Burhenn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	16.8%	7.1%	3.1%	—	4.73	17.9%	10.5%	241	+0.07	—	—	—
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	86
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	83
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	82
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	81
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	81
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	81
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	80
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	80
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	80
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	79
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	79
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	79
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	78
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	78
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.73	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.66	4.07	203	78
Tim Atherton R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	77
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	77
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	76
Dallas Beeler R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	26	SP	3.47	15.1%	7.6%	1.2%	.301	7.35	10.0%	1.5%	11	+3.88	3.47	122	76
Josh DeGraaf R 2018 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	17.2%	7.1%	3.6%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	320	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	80	17.8%	7.3%	1.29	4.70
Paul Reuschel ('75-'79, 1 WAR*)	2.0	79	16.8%*	7.6%*	1.29*	4.76*
Brad Lincoln ('14)	1.1	56	17.4%	7.9%	1.30	4.74
Bryan Hickerson ('95)	2.0	81	15.9%	8.1%	1.16	4.72
Morrie Martin ('49-'59, 3 WAR*)	3.0	76	17.2%*	8.3%*	1.25*	4.45*
Joe Biagini ('21)	1.7	83	19.0%	7.9%	1.28	5.03
Mike Jeffcoat ('83-'94, 1 WAR*)	2.5	83	15.2%*	6.7%*	1.16*	4.65*