Mason Black

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 228 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	29	28	121	5.15	4.53	22.0%	10.1%	0.5	K 19.7% · BB 9.3% · FIP 4.73
2025	25	MIX2 levels	31	24	123	5.84	4.66	21.6%	11.1%	0.3	K 18.5% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.91
2026	26	MIX2 levels	43	5	93	5.40	5.55	16.7%	9.7%	-1.1	K 15.0% · BB 9.2% · FIP 5.77
2027PROJ	27	MLBKC	26	26	153	5.65	5.88	13.8%	11.0%	-1.6
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBKC	11	11	65	5.67	5.80	14.5%	10.8%	-0.6
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBKC	14	14	86	5.73	5.84	14.5%	10.8%	-0.9

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -3.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo43

Whiff%10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsClay Condrey (age 27) · Alfonso Sanchez (age 27) · Aldo Montes (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.65

FIP5.88

K%13.8%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%2.8%

Proj IP153

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 153 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF3030

CTRL4540

CMD4040

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p1018.5%

p1013.4%

xwOBA vs

p100.387

CT (8%)

SI (26%)

CU (7%)

FB (47%)

CH-0.5 (4%)

SL-0.6 (34%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	112	463	136	36	12	100%	4.7	22.3%	9.0%	13.3%	2.9%	3.21	3.95	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	112	463	136	36	12	100%	4.7	29.4%	7.8%	21.6%	2.6%	3.21	3.03	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	124	512	155	52	16	100%	4.3	25.2%	10.0%	15.3%	3.6%	3.71	4.23	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	124	512	155	52	16	100%	4.3	30.3%	10.2%	20.1%	3.1%	3.71	3.54	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	121	536	118	54	19	97%	4.2	19.7%	9.3%	10.4%	3.8%	5.15	4.73	+0.2
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	121	536	118	54	19	97%	4.2	19.7%	9.3%	10.4%	3.8%	5.15	4.73	+0.2
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	121	536	118	54	19	97%	4.2	22.0%	10.1%	11.9%	3.5%	5.15	4.53	+0.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	24	123	550	119	61	19	77%	4.0	18.5%	10.3%	8.1%	3.8%	5.84	4.91	-0.0
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	24	123	550	119	61	19	77%	4.0	18.5%	10.3%	8.1%	3.8%	5.84	4.91	-0.0
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	24	123	550	119	61	19	77%	4.0	21.6%	11.1%	10.5%	3.5%	5.84	4.66	+0.3
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	5	93	412	69	40	19	12%	2.2	15.0%	9.2%	5.8%	5.0%	5.40	5.77	-1.3
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	5	93	412	69	40	19	12%	2.2	15.0%	9.2%	5.8%	5.0%	5.40	5.77	-1.3
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	5	93	412	69	40	19	12%	2.2	16.7%	9.7%	7.0%	4.6%	5.40	5.55	-1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			27	8	72	330	55	35	15	30%	2.7	16.7%	10.6%	6.1%	4.5%	5.53	5.75	-1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	KC	26	26	153	646	89	71	26	100%	5.9	13.8%	11.0%	2.8%	4.0%	5.65	5.88	-1.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	KC	26	26	153	647	94	70	26	100%	5.9	14.5%	10.8%	3.7%	4.0%	5.67	5.80	-1.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	KC	24	24	146	618	90	67	25	100%	6.1	14.5%	10.8%	3.7%	4.0%	5.73	5.84	-1.5
2030	30	MLB MLE	KC	23	23	138	581	82	64	24	100%	6.0	14.2%	10.9%	3.2%	4.2%	5.84	5.97	-1.6
2028	28	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	65	274	40	30	11	100%	5.9	14.5%	10.8%	3.7%	4.0%	5.67	5.80	-0.6
2029	29	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	86	363	53	39	15	100%	6.1	14.5%	10.8%	3.7%	4.0%	5.73	5.84	-0.9
2030	30	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	97	410	58	45	17	100%	6.1	14.2%	10.9%	3.2%	4.2%	5.84	5.97	-1.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		68	49	320	1379	206	149	58	72%	4.7	14.9%	10.8%	4.1%	4.2%	5.71	5.51	-2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	31	200	862	129	93	36	72%	4.7	14.9%	10.8%	4.1%	4.2%	5.71	5.51	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		156	110	573	2473	502	238	94	71%	3.7	20.3%	9.6%	10.7%	3.8%	4.65	4.69	-5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	38	200	863	175	83	33	71%	3.7	20.3%	9.6%	10.7%	3.8%	4.65	4.69	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Black (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.88	13.8%	11.0%	4.0%	—	5.87	14.4%	3.6%	437	-0.01	—	—	—
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	83
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	80
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	78
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	75
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	75
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	75
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	74
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	345	74
Jim Brower R 2000 · 5.54 FIP	27	SP-	5.54	10.9%	10.2%	3.8%	.314	4.22	16.4%	7.2%	310	-1.32	3.67	571	72
Adam Panayotovich R 2017 · 5.45 FIP	25	SP-	5.45	9.6%	9.0%	3.7%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	121	71
Luis Romero R 2021 · 6.01 FIP	27	SW	6.01	13.8%	10.1%	5.1%	.293	5.68	11.7%	-1.4%	68	-0.33	4.00	293	71
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	71
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	71
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	70
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	70
Drake Fellows R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	26	SP-	4.97	16.1%	12.7%	2.9%	.293	4.85	14.2%	6.3%	207	-0.12	4.28	282	70
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	70
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	70
Chris Jensen R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	27	SW	5.31	12.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	488	69
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	110	14.5%	10.8%	1.59	5.70
Les Sweetland ('27-'31, -4 WAR*)	3.7	148	11.8%*	11.2%*	1.53*	5.55*
Jo-Jo Reyes ('16)	1.7	84	14.0%	9.6%	1.44	6.06
Dan Wright ('04)	1.8	122	13.7%	10.2%	1.60	5.65
Rob Bell ('07)	3.4	98	13.7%	9.4%	1.64	5.71
Charlie Bishop ('52-'55, -1 WAR*)	1.5	98	16.9%*	11.2%*	1.30*	5.49*
Phil Ortega ('60-'69, -4 WAR*)	4.8	159	16.8%*	9.6%*	1.70*	5.69*