Brayan Palencia

P Eugene Emeralds

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 204 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	23	3	67	3.11	2.92	21.9%	7.1%	—	K 15.8% · BB 8.4% · FIP 3.78
2025	22	A+SF	30	5	58	4.34	4.20	17.3%	5.9%	—	K 13.3% · BB 6.8% · FIP 5.20
2026	23	A+SF	18	0	30	5.93	6.00	15.7%	12.9%	—	K 12.1% · BB 14.8% · FIP 6.89
2027PROJ	24	MLBSF	54	0	57	5.74	5.74	11.5%	11.2%	-0.7
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBSF	24	0	25	5.50	5.44	14.0%	10.7%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBSF	36	0	38	5.33	5.28	15.5%	10.5%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control55Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsMark Peterson (age 24) · Kevin Johnson (age 24) · Zach Nuding (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142134vR 126

ERA5.74

FIP5.74

K%11.5%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%0.3%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	15	0	18	70	23	4	0	0%	1.2	22.3%	7.1%	15.2%	0.0%	1.47	2.12	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Orange	15	0	18	70	23	4	0	0%	1.2	32.9%	5.7%	27.1%	0.0%	1.47	1.25	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	14	6	44	192	42	10	6	43%	3.1	14.9%	6.5%	8.4%	4.3%	4.33	5.03	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Orange	14	6	44	192	42	10	6	43%	3.1	21.9%	5.2%	16.7%	3.1%	4.33	3.65	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	15	3	44	197	37	14	5	20%	2.9	12.8%	8.9%	3.9%	3.4%	6.18	5.04	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Black	15	3	44	197	37	14	5	20%	2.9	18.8%	7.1%	11.7%	2.5%	6.18	3.86	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	3	67	283	62	20	4	13%	2.9	15.8%	8.4%	7.4%	1.7%	3.11	3.78	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	3	67	283	62	20	4	13%	2.9	15.8%	8.4%	7.4%	1.7%	3.11	3.78	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	3	67	283	62	20	4	13%	2.9	21.9%	7.1%	14.8%	1.4%	3.11	2.92	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	30	5	58	237	41	14	8	17%	1.9	13.3%	6.8%	6.5%	4.3%	4.34	5.20	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	30	5	58	237	41	14	8	17%	1.9	13.3%	6.8%	6.5%	4.3%	4.34	5.20	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	30	5	58	237	41	14	8	17%	1.9	17.3%	5.9%	11.4%	3.4%	4.34	4.20	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	18	0	30	140	22	18	6	0%	1.7	12.1%	14.8%	-2.7%	5.4%	5.93	6.89	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	18	0	30	140	22	18	6	0%	1.7	12.1%	14.8%	-2.7%	5.4%	5.93	6.89	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	18	0	30	140	22	18	6	0%	1.7	15.7%	12.9%	2.9%	4.3%	5.93	6.00	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	SF	54	0	57	241	28	27	8	0%	1.1	11.5%	11.2%	0.3%	3.3%	5.74	5.74	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SF	55	0	58	244	34	26	8	0%	1.1	14.0%	10.7%	3.3%	3.3%	5.50	5.44	-0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	SF	55	0	58	244	38	26	8	0%	1.1	15.5%	10.5%	5.0%	3.2%	5.33	5.28	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	SF	24	0	25	106	15	11	3	0%	1.0	14.0%	10.7%	3.3%	3.3%	5.50	5.44	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	SF	36	0	38	160	25	17	5	0%	1.1	15.5%	10.5%	5.0%	3.2%	5.33	5.28	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	267	40	28	9	0%	1.1	14.9%	10.6%	4.3%	3.2%	5.40	4.96	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	126	89	28	0%	1.1	14.9%	10.6%	4.3%	3.2%	5.40	4.96	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		115	17	261	1119	163	96	38	15%	2.3	14.5%	8.5%	6.0%	3.4%	4.32	4.80	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	13	200	859	125	73	29	15%	2.3	14.5%	8.5%	6.0%	3.4%	4.32	4.80	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brayan Palencia (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.74	11.5%	11.2%	3.3%	—	5.36	14.8%	4.2%	116	-0.38	—	—	—
Mark Peterson R 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SU	4.89	11.5%	8.5%	3.1%	.277	4.71	15.9%	5.6%	112	-0.18	4.65	185	86
Kevin Johnson R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	11.0%	8.5%	2.6%	.302	5.52	9.9%	-2.0%	26	+0.83	4.69	106	85
Zach Nuding R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.236	5.03	12.6%	3.3%	106	+0.27	4.76	146	85
Johendí Jiminian R 2017 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	11.5%	14.0%	3.3%	.300	4.77	13.9%	3.6%	164	-0.93	4.01	419	85
Ian Villers R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	13.2%	11.9%	1.9%	.311	4.23	15.6%	5.2%	59	-0.32	4.23	107	84
Robbie Aviles R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	24	SU	4.69	11.5%	8.7%	2.6%	.343	3.63	12.2%	6.5%	58	-1.06	3.63	172	84
John Kuchno R 2015 · 5.44 FIP	24	SU	5.44	8.9%	8.7%	3.6%	.247	5.14	10.2%	1.6%	84	-0.30	2.43	162	84
Ryan Vogelsong R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	14.6%	11.6%	3.7%	.287	4.78	14.9%	5.7%	155	-0.56	3.14	1,184	84
Conner O'Neil R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	12.8%	13.6%	3.7%	.340	6.92	16.4%	4.1%	26	+1.14	2.89	115	83
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	83
David Reid-Foley R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	24	SU	4.68	13.8%	8.8%	3.0%	.308	6.54	16.2%	7.6%	33	+1.86	4.68	110	83
Taylor Grover R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SU	5.03	15.1%	12.9%	2.9%	.229	4.30	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.73	3.68	239	83
Brady Dragmire R 2017 · 4.78 FIP	24	SU	4.78	8.9%	9.4%	2.3%	.304	4.38	11.9%	5.8%	173	-0.40	3.05	391	83
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	83
Jonathan Brand R 2024 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	13.6%	10.6%	2.4%	.284	4.87	22.0%	11.9%	115	+0.26	3.34	198	83
Jake Johansen R 2015 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	15.8%	12.8%	3.6%	.351	4.14	13.6%	3.0%	114	-1.20	3.65	162	82
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	82
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	82
Victor Santos R 2001 · 4.97 FIP	24	SW	4.97	15.5%	13.4%	2.7%	.231	4.38	16.4%	7.4%	206	-0.59	4.09	602	82
Ryan Miller R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	23	SU	5.62	11.2%	8.4%	4.4%	.298	5.82	25.5%	11.8%	36	+0.20	4.03	338	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	13.7%	10.8%	1.26	5.52
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Russ Swan ('89-'94, -2 WAR*)	1.3	89	12.3%*	9.9%*	1.13*	5.09*
Greg Booker ('83-'90, -1 WAR*)	1.3	53	13.3%*	10.2%*	1.07*	4.51*