Logan McGuire
P
Lake County Captains
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 204 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110100vR 91
ERA3.96
FIP3.96
K%19.7%
BB%5.1%
K-BB%14.6%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 37 | 0 | 67 | 280 | 75 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.8 | 19.8% | 4.6% | 15.2% | 1.0% | 4.43 | 2.57 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 37 | 0 | 67 | 280 | 75 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.8 | 26.8% | 3.9% | 22.9% | 1.1% | 4.43 | 1.94 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 24 | 0 | 38 | 173 | 40 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 17.8% | 14.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.73 | 5.43 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CLE | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 51 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 5.1% | 14.6% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 3.96 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.7% | 5.1% | 14.6% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 3.96 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 99 | 433 | 91 | 35 | 12 | — | — | 21.1% | 8.2% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.52 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.7% | 5.1% | 14.6% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 3.58 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 55 | 14 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 5.3% | 15.3% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 3.91 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 57 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 5.5% | 15.7% | 2.7% | 3.91 | 3.88 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 58 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 5.6% | 15.9% | 2.7% | 3.90 | 3.88 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 57 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 5.8% | 15.8% | 2.8% | 3.92 | 3.93 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 24 | 6 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 5.3% | 15.3% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 3.91 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 38 | 10 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 5.5% | 15.7% | 2.7% | 3.91 | 3.88 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 46 | 12 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 5.6% | 15.9% | 2.7% | 3.90 | 3.88 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 49 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 5.8% | 15.8% | 2.8% | 3.92 | 3.93 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 166 | 0 | 174 | 736 | 157 | 41 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 5.6% | 15.7% | 2.7% | 3.91 | 3.52 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 180 | 47 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 5.6% | 15.7% | 2.7% | 3.91 | 3.52 | +4.4 | ||
| Career | — | 61 | 0 | 105 | 453 | 86 | 38 | 9 | 0% | 1.7 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 2.0% | 4.90 | 3.66 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 117 | 0 | 200 | 866 | 165 | 73 | 17 | 0% | 1.7 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 2.0% | 4.90 | 3.66 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Logan McGuire (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.96 | 19.7% | 5.1% | 2.7% | — | 3.89 | 21.1% | 15.7% | 191 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| John Fasola R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.78 | 21.5% | 5.7% | 3.2% | .294 | 2.94 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 58 | -0.84 | 2.72 | 124 | 91 |
| Ryan Halstead R 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.40 | 20.7% | 4.8% | 2.6% | .331 | 3.74 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 168 | +0.34 | 3.31 | 222 | 90 |
| Nick Rumbelow R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.43 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 2.7% | .295 | 3.60 | 24.8% | 16.4% | 64 | +0.17 | 2.03 | 164 | 89 |
| Ulises Joaquin R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.51 | 17.7% | 5.5% | 2.2% | .286 | 4.67 | 15.0% | 6.8% | 120 | +1.16 | 1.56 | 192 | 88 |
| Ocean Gabonia R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.75 | 19.7% | 6.8% | 2.6% | .316 | 2.79 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 41 | -0.96 | 2.79 | 144 | 88 |
| Kender Villegas R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.18 | 18.0% | 5.0% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.55 | 13.3% | 0.0% | 60 | +1.37 | 3.18 | 131 | 87 |
| Breckin Williams R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .282 | 2.79 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.95 | 2.72 | 107 | 87 |
| Jake Curtis R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.51 | 19.1% | 6.1% | 2.3% | .372 | 3.34 | 19.3% | 12.8% | 46 | -0.17 | 3.34 | 105 | 86 |
| Sam Bragg R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.36 | 19.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .274 | 3.92 | 13.8% | 6.2% | 138 | -0.44 | 2.98 | 277 | 86 |
| Dusty Isaacs R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.44 | 21.0% | 6.2% | 2.4% | .375 | 4.19 | 21.2% | 11.1% | 177 | +0.75 | 3.16 | 253 | 86 |
| Dan Slania R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.34 | 23.2% | 5.4% | 2.8% | .335 | 4.74 | 17.5% | 8.7% | 331 | +1.40 | 3.34 | 403 | 86 |
| Trey Cobb R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.42 | 18.3% | 4.9% | 4.1% | .317 | 6.79 | 13.4% | 3.6% | 40 | +2.37 | 3.91 | 192 | 85 |
| Joe Broussard R 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.18 | 18.1% | 4.9% | 1.8% | .333 | 3.13 | 23.2% | 15.9% | 192 | -0.05 | 2.61 | 304 | 85 |
| Marquis Grissom Jr. R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.47 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 2.3% | .271 | 6.14 | 18.0% | 5.2% | 49 | +2.67 | 3.31 | 144 | 85 |
| Mario Morales R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.35 | 17.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | .312 | 4.50 | 18.4% | 9.8% | 50 | +0.15 | 4.35 | 108 | 85 |
| Bear Bellomy R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 23.1% | 6.9% | 3.9% | .274 | 5.47 | 15.0% | 8.2% | 72 | +1.31 | 4.16 | 139 | 85 |
| Tyler Higgins R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.66 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 2.2% | .289 | 3.84 | 15.6% | 9.0% | 168 | +0.18 | 3.58 | 290 | 85 |
| Josh Advocate R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.58 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.59 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 75 | +0.01 | 3.58 | 118 | 85 |
| Adam Hofacket R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.80 | 17.7% | 5.1% | 2.8% | .317 | 3.79 | 16.1% | 7.3% | 101 | -0.01 | 3.07 | 258 | 84 |
| Ty Weber R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.23 | 17.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | .348 | 4.60 | 13.7% | 6.8% | 90 | +0.37 | 3.92 | 144 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 63 | 21.0% | 5.5% | 1.06 | 3.93 |
| Nick Vincent ('20) | 6 | 45 | 22.7% | 6.3% | 1.13 | 3.71 |
| Tommy Hunter ('23) | 7 | 41 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 1.00 | 3.72 |
| Craig Stammen ('22) | 6 | 66 | 23.0% | 5.4% | 1.19 | 3.36 |
| Joe Smith ('22) | 7 | 44 | 22.5% | 6.4% | 1.08 | 3.67 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Kelvin Herrera ('19) | 5 | 59 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 3.58 |