Logan McGuire — OGILVIE

Logan McGuire P Lake County Captains

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 204 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.5 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10798vR 90

ERA3.86

FIP3.86

K%19.7%

BB%4.3%

K-BB%15.5%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	37	0	67	280	75	11	3	0%	1.8	19.8%	4.6%	15.2%	1.2%	4.43	2.66	—
2025	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	37	0	67	280	75	11	3	0%	1.8	19.8%	4.6%	15.2%	1.2%	4.43	2.66	—
2025	22	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	37	0	67	280	75	11	3	0%	1.8	26.8%	3.9%	22.9%	1.1%	4.43	1.94	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	36	0	56	264	53	34	11	0%	1.6	15.6%	15.0%	0.7%	5.3%	6.55	6.57	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	36	0	56	264	53	34	11	0%	1.6	15.6%	15.0%	0.7%	5.3%	6.55	6.57	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	CLE	35	0	55	261	53	34	11	0%	1.6	20.3%	13.0%	7.3%	4.2%	6.67	5.35	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	CLE	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	CLE	5	0	5	22	4	1	1	0%	1.0	19.7%	4.3%	15.5%	2.7%	3.86	3.86	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	62	286	57	35	12	—	—	20.0%	12.2%	7.8%	4.1%	6.32	6.34	-1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CLE	60	0	63	266	55	12	7	0%	1.1	20.6%	4.5%	16.1%	2.7%	3.85	3.82	+0.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	CLE	61	0	64	270	57	13	7	0%	1.0	21.2%	4.8%	16.5%	2.7%	3.83	3.80	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	CLE	61	0	64	270	58	13	7	0%	1.0	21.5%	4.9%	16.6%	2.8%	3.82	3.80	+0.6
2027	24	MLB CTX	CLE	26	0	27	114	24	5	3	0%	1.0	20.6%	4.5%	16.1%	2.7%	3.85	3.82	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	CLE	40	0	42	177	38	8	5	0%	1.1	21.2%	4.8%	16.5%	2.7%	3.83	3.80	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	CLE	49	0	51	215	46	11	6	0%	1.0	21.5%	4.9%	16.6%	2.8%	3.82	3.80	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		115	0	120	508	108	24	14	0%	1.0	21.2%	4.8%	16.5%	2.7%	3.83	3.42	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	40	23	0%	1.0	21.2%	4.8%	16.5%	2.7%	3.83	3.42	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		73	0	123	544	97	53	17	0%	1.7	17.8%	9.7%	8.1%	3.2%	5.40	4.56	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	0	200	882	157	85	28	0%	1.7	17.8%	9.7%	8.1%	3.2%	5.40	4.56	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Logan McGuire (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.86	19.7%	4.3%	2.7%	—	3.81	21.1%	16.4%	191	-0.05	—	—	—
Ryan Halstead R 2016 · 3.12 FIP	24	SU	3.12	20.7%	4.8%	2.1%	.331	3.54	17.5%	11.0%	168	+0.42	3.12	222	89
John Fasola R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	21.5%	5.7%	3.3%	.294	2.96	19.8%	11.6%	58	-0.85	2.72	124	89
Mario Morales R 2017 · 4.13 FIP	23	SU	4.13	17.2%	4.0%	3.6%	.312	4.53	18.4%	9.8%	50	+0.40	4.13	108	87
Nick Rumbelow R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	23	SU	3.28	22.6%	6.1%	2.4%	.295	3.54	24.8%	16.4%	64	+0.26	2.03	164	86
Landon Harper R 2023 · 3.68 FIP	22	SU	3.68	17.2%	4.4%	2.7%	.299	4.46	18.3%	13.2%	185	+0.78	3.68	258	86
Nate Harris R 2018 · 3.26 FIP	23	SU	3.26	20.3%	2.8%	2.8%	.345	5.48	14.2%	6.6%	161	+2.22	3.26	231	86
Dan Slania R 2015 · 3.38 FIP	23	SU	3.38	23.2%	5.4%	2.8%	.335	4.52	17.5%	8.7%	331	+1.14	3.38	403	86
Eric Peterson R 2016 · 2.67 FIP	23	SU	2.67	20.6%	4.5%	1.3%	.316	5.60	9.9%	4.0%	13	+2.93	2.67	149	86
Kender Villegas R 2016 · 3.26 FIP	23	SU	3.26	18.0%	5.0%	1.9%	.330	4.70	13.3%	0.0%	60	+1.44	3.26	131	85
Ty Weber R 2021 · 4.24 FIP	23	SU	4.24	17.9%	4.1%	3.9%	.348	4.76	13.7%	6.8%	90	+0.52	4.08	144	85
Ulises Joaquin R 2015 · 3.63 FIP	23	SU	3.63	17.7%	5.5%	2.4%	.286	4.77	15.0%	6.8%	120	+1.14	1.56	192	85
Giovanny Gallegos R 2015 · 2.68 FIP	23	SU	2.68	20.7%	4.0%	1.5%	.217	2.22	30.7%	25.0%	186	-0.46	1.66	560	84
Travis Hissong R 2016 · 3.01 FIP	25	SU	3.01	23.6%	4.9%	2.3%	.256	4.17	20.3%	6.8%	50	+1.16	3.01	122	84
Trey Cobb R 2018 · 4.45 FIP	24	SU	4.45	18.3%	4.9%	4.1%	.317	6.93	13.4%	3.6%	40	+2.48	3.94	192	84
Cameron Cotter R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	17.2%	2.7%	3.3%	.302	3.40	17.5%	11.2%	96	-0.39	2.86	128	83
Jorgan Cavanerio R 2018 · 3.33 FIP	23	SU	3.33	17.6%	4.4%	2.1%	.342	3.61	12.4%	7.7%	128	+0.28	3.33	521	83
Davis Sharpe R 2023 · 4.35 FIP	23	SU	4.35	19.3%	5.7%	3.9%	.322	4.50	17.7%	9.6%	128	+0.15	3.24	260	83
Dusty Isaacs R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	23	SU	3.45	21.0%	6.2%	2.5%	.375	4.19	21.2%	11.1%	177	+0.74	3.16	253	83
Montana DuRapau R 2015 · 2.99 FIP	23	SU	2.99	20.1%	4.2%	1.9%	.150	3.99	22.4%	12.7%	124	+1.00	2.87	312	83
Jack Labosky R 2019 · 3.09 FIP	23	SU	3.09	14.8%	3.1%	1.5%	.295	5.39	19.0%	13.9%	79	+2.30	3.09	145	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	63	20.8%	4.6%	1.06	3.84
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Alex Claudio ('21)	1.5	59	16.3%	6.1%	0.76	3.66
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Adam Cimber ('24)	1.6	52	18.3%	6.6%	0.75	3.75