Chase Lee
P
Buffalo Bisons
Age 27
RHP
6'0" / 170 lbs
AAA
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 39 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109
ERA4.46
FIP4.78
K%19.7%
BB%6.2%
K-BB%13.5%
ROS IP39
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1089.5
Whiff%
p2021.1%
K%
p6124.3%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
FB+5.6 (60%)
CH+2.2 (6%)
SI (32%)
SL-7.8 (35%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 0 | 18 | 69 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 33.6% | 5.1% | 28.6% | 3.0% | 3.50 | 2.55 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 0 | 18 | 69 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 43.5% | 4.3% | 39.1% | 2.9% | 3.50 | 1.71 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 55 | 242 | 71 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 17.0% | 1.0% | 4.07 | 2.55 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 55 | 242 | 71 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.3% | 7.4% | 21.9% | 0.8% | 4.07 | 1.98 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 47 | 4 | 63 | 281 | 87 | 24 | 7 | 9% | 1.3 | 27.2% | 9.0% | 18.3% | 2.6% | 3.98 | 3.34 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 47 | 4 | 63 | 281 | 87 | 24 | 7 | 9% | 1.3 | 31.0% | 8.5% | 22.4% | 2.5% | 3.98 | 2.93 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 1 | 36 | 162 | 49 | 11 | 2 | 4% | 1.3 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 17.2% | 2.5% | 2.75 | 3.38 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 1 | 36 | 162 | 49 | 11 | 2 | 4% | 1.3 | 30.2% | 6.8% | 23.5% | 1.2% | 2.75 | 2.02 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 69 | 283 | 74 | 18 | 11 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.5% | 6.5% | 18.0% | 4.8% | 5.19 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 69 | 283 | 74 | 18 | 11 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.1% | 6.4% | 19.8% | 3.9% | 5.19 | 3.81 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 32 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 36 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 1.4% | 2.95 | 3.49 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TOR | 37 | 0 | 39 | 166 | 33 | 10 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 6.2% | 13.5% | 4.0% | 4.46 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TOR | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 32 | 10 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 6.2% | 13.5% | 4.0% | 4.46 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 79 | 334 | 69 | 29 | 11 | — | — | 20.6% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 3.70 | 4.13 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 43 | 180 | 69 | 29 | 11 | — | — | 38.1% | 16.2% | 21.9% | 5.9% | 6.85 | 5.16 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 52 | 17 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 6.6% | 13.3% | 4.0% | 4.65 | 4.81 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 56 | 0 | 59 | 248 | 49 | 18 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 12.5% | 4.0% | 4.81 | 4.94 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 50 | 17 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 6.6% | 13.3% | 4.0% | 4.65 | 4.81 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 46 | 17 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 12.5% | 4.0% | 4.81 | 4.94 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 181 | 0 | 194 | 812 | 165 | 55 | 35 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 13.5% | 4.3% | 4.61 | 4.61 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 187 | 0 | 200 | 835 | 170 | 57 | 36 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 13.5% | 4.3% | 4.61 | 4.61 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 227 | 5 | 282 | 1205 | 304 | 96 | 32 | 2% | 1.2 | 25.2% | 8.0% | 17.2% | 2.6% | 3.96 | 3.43 | +6.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 161 | 4 | 200 | 856 | 216 | 68 | 23 | 2% | 1.2 | 25.2% | 8.0% | 17.2% | 2.6% | 3.96 | 3.43 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chase Lee (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.78 | 19.7% | 6.2% | 4.0% | — | 4.87 | 19.8% | 12.9% | 120 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Vinny Nittoli R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.36 | 19.0% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .302 | 3.71 | 26.9% | 20.4% | 93 | -0.65 | 3.59 | 331 | 80 |
| Noé Ramirez R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.11 | 24.9% | 8.7% | 3.6% | .269 | 3.88 | 26.1% | 18.8% | 172 | -0.23 | 3.41 | 423 | 80 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 79 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2028 · 3.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.62 | 18.9% | 4.8% | 2.7% | .295 | 3.16 | 21.2% | 15.9% | 172 | -0.46 | 2.82 | 316 | 78 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.90 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.48 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.42 | 2.78 | 596 | 77 |
| Trevor Hildenberger R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.97 | 21.9% | 5.3% | 3.7% | .286 | 3.81 | 19.0% | 9.0% | 61 | -0.16 | 1.41 | 309 | 77 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.18 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 3.6% | .174 | 3.38 | 24.7% | 16.0% | 206 | -0.80 | 2.33 | 445 | 76 |
| Deolis Guerra R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.67 | 16.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | .269 | 3.32 | 26.3% | 19.3% | 192 | -0.35 | 2.56 | 364 | 76 |
| Yusmeiro Petit R 2029 · 4.12 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.12 | 18.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | .275 | 3.60 | 23.0% | 19.0% | 246 | -0.52 | 2.64 | 517 | 75 |
| Trevor Kelley R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.92 | 20.7% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .240 | 3.77 | 24.7% | 15.4% | 99 | -0.15 | 2.79 | 421 | 75 |
| Danny Barnes R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.50 | 23.4% | 8.7% | 4.2% | .219 | 4.54 | 19.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.04 | 1.64 | 243 | 75 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .339 | 3.34 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.90 | 3.31 | 166 | 75 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .325 | 4.53 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.65 | 3.88 | 500 | 74 |
| David Hernandez R 2029 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 74 |
| Steve Geltz R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .209 | 4.89 | 22.2% | 12.0% | 89 | +0.89 | 3.58 | 157 | 74 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 73 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.2% | .324 | 3.81 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.03 | 3.57 | 224 | 73 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2029 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.66 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.62 | 3.66 | 348 | 73 |
| Tyler Duffey R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.19 | 21.1% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .265 | 2.75 | 30.4% | 22.3% | 158 | -1.44 | 2.26 | 803 | 73 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 121 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 54 | 19.7% | 6.7% | 1.54 | 4.66 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |