Chase Lee — OGILVIE

Chase Lee P Buffalo Bisons

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs AAA ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION61 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.03

FIP4.28

K%19.1%

BB%5.8%

K-BB%13.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.5

Whiff%

p2021.1%

p6124.3%

xwOBA vs

p210.346

FB+5.6 (60%)

CH+2.2 (6%)

SI (32%)

SL-7.8 (35%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	18	69	30	3	2	0%	1.3	33.6%	5.1%	28.6%	3.3%	3.50	2.72	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	18	69	30	3	2	0%	1.3	43.5%	4.3%	39.1%	2.9%	3.50	1.71	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	55	242	71	18	2	0%	1.1	25.0%	8.0%	17.0%	0.9%	4.07	2.52	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	55	242	71	18	2	0%	1.1	29.3%	7.4%	21.9%	0.8%	4.07	1.98	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	47	4	63	281	87	24	7	9%	1.3	25.7%	7.7%	18.0%	2.6%	3.98	3.36	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	47	4	63	281	87	24	7	9%	1.3	25.7%	7.7%	18.0%	2.6%	3.98	3.36	—
2023	24	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	47	4	63	281	87	24	7	9%	1.3	31.0%	8.5%	22.4%	2.5%	3.98	2.93	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	1	36	162	49	11	2	4%	1.3	23.6%	6.7%	16.9%	1.9%	2.75	2.99	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	1	36	162	49	11	2	4%	1.3	23.6%	6.7%	16.9%	1.9%	2.75	2.99	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	1	36	162	49	11	2	4%	1.3	30.2%	6.8%	23.5%	1.2%	2.75	2.02	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	69	283	74	18	11	0%	1.3	23.9%	6.0%	17.9%	4.4%	5.19	4.24	+0.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	69	283	74	18	11	0%	1.3	23.9%	6.0%	17.9%	4.4%	5.19	4.24	+0.3
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	69	283	74	18	11	0%	1.3	26.1%	6.4%	19.8%	3.9%	5.19	3.81	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			39	0	45	185	38	14	10	0%	1.2	20.5%	7.6%	13.0%	5.4%	4.76	5.22	-0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	49	0	61	250	49	25	6	0%	1.2	18.3%	8.0%	10.3%	1.5%	2.82	3.42	—
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	49	0	61	250	49	25	6	0%	1.2	18.3%	8.0%	10.3%	1.5%	2.82	3.42	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	TOR	42	0	53	213	47	19	3	0%	1.3	22.1%	8.9%	13.1%	1.4%	2.05	3.14	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	TOR	7	0	8	37	2	6	3	0%	1.1	5.4%	16.2%	-10.8%	8.1%	7.88	9.15	—
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	TOR	7	0	8	37	2	6	3	0%	1.1	5.4%	16.2%	-10.8%	8.1%	7.88	9.15	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	TOR	5	0	5	23	4	1	1	0%	1.1	19.1%	5.8%	13.3%	3.7%	4.03	4.28	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	TOR	5	0	5	21	4	1	1	0%	1.0	19.1%	5.8%	13.3%	3.7%	4.03	4.28	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	66	273	53	26	7	—	—	19.6%	9.7%	9.9%	2.5%	2.92	3.49	+0.9
FULL	27	MLB A+C	TOR	—	—	13	56	53	26	7	—	—	94.6%	46.7%	47.9%	12.1%	14.42	7.69	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TOR	59	0	62	260	47	18	11	0%	1.0	18.1%	7.0%	11.1%	4.1%	4.94	5.07	-0.4
2028	29	MLB MLE	TOR	56	0	59	248	45	18	10	0%	1.1	17.9%	7.4%	10.5%	4.1%	5.06	5.17	-0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	TOR	56	0	59	249	45	18	10	0%	1.1	18.1%	7.0%	11.1%	4.1%	4.94	5.07	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	TOR	53	0	56	236	42	18	10	0%	1.1	17.9%	7.4%	10.5%	4.1%	5.06	5.17	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		153	0	165	691	129	50	31	0%	1.1	18.7%	7.3%	11.5%	4.4%	4.90	4.87	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		185	0	200	837	156	61	38	0%	1.1	18.7%	7.3%	11.5%	4.4%	4.90	4.87	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		244	5	303	1287	307	92	31	2%	1.2	23.9%	7.2%	16.7%	2.4%	3.87	3.33	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		161	3	200	850	203	61	21	2%	1.2	23.9%	7.2%	16.7%	2.4%	3.87	3.33	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Lee (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	19.2%	5.6%	3.8%	—	5.12	18.0%	10.8%	120	+0.48	—	—	—
Vinny Nittoli R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	28	SU	4.18	19.0%	6.9%	3.3%	.302	3.86	26.9%	20.4%	93	-0.32	3.66	331	79
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	78
Chasen Bradford R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	27	SU	3.47	17.0%	6.0%	1.9%	.317	5.27	16.4%	10.7%	70	+1.80	2.99	322	75
Cory Gearrin R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	29	SU	3.52	22.1%	7.5%	2.5%	.283	3.54	22.2%	13.6%	174	+0.02	3.15	272	75
Justin De Fratus R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	27	SU	3.84	18.8%	8.3%	2.3%	.325	4.61	12.4%	6.9%	279	+0.77	3.84	500	75
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	75
Ryan Doolittle R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	15.1%	6.7%	2.5%	.315	4.38	13.9%	6.8%	44	+0.35	4.03	101	75
Bryan Shaw R 2015 · 3.90 FIP	27	SU	3.90	20.4%	6.8%	3.0%	.276	3.54	23.3%	15.0%	198	-0.36	2.78	596	74
Steve Cishek R 2015 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	19.8%	9.9%	1.8%	.305	3.06	27.1%	19.3%	179	-0.59	2.86	453	74
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	74
Aaron Kurcz R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	15.4%	8.4%	3.6%	.301	3.97	26.2%	21.8%	50	-0.87	3.31	213	74
Tommy Hunter R 2015 · 3.72 FIP	29	SU	3.72	18.9%	4.8%	2.9%	.295	3.14	21.2%	15.9%	172	-0.58	2.78	316	74
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	74
Noé Ramirez R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	27	SU	4.09	24.9%	8.7%	3.6%	.269	3.77	26.1%	18.8%	172	-0.32	3.31	423	74
Ronnie Shaban R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	26	SU	4.32	14.1%	5.3%	3.2%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	104	74
Ryan Tepera R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	27	SU	4.17	21.1%	7.2%	3.5%	.174	3.40	24.7%	16.0%	206	-0.77	2.35	445	74
Andrew Robinson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	17.6%	6.3%	2.5%	.246	3.64	22.7%	14.4%	97	-0.13	3.19	160	74
Ryan Kelly R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	20.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.241	3.21	20.8%	14.2%	43	-0.31	2.49	131	73
Norge Ruiz R 2022 · 4.48 FIP	28	SU	4.48	19.6%	8.5%	3.6%	.318	5.06	12.5%	4.5%	45	+0.58	3.75	367	73
Trevor Kelley R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	20.7%	7.1%	3.2%	.240	3.67	24.7%	15.4%	99	-0.31	2.79	421	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	60	18.4%	6.7%	1.55	4.80
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47