Chase Lee

P Buffalo Bisons

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	28	1	36	2.75	2.02	30.2%	6.8%	—	K 24.4% · BB 6.7% · FIP 2.92
2025	26	MIX2 levels	55	0	69	5.19	3.81	26.1%	6.4%	0.6	K 24.3% · BB 6.0% · FIP 4.21
2026	27	MIX2 levels	51	0	63	2.70	3.87	20.2%	9.7%	0.5	K 18.7% · BB 7.9% · FIP 3.36
2027PROJ	28	MLBTOR	46	0	48	4.40	4.66	17.2%	6.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ82% MLB	29	MLBTOR	30	0	31	4.62	4.79	17.2%	6.9%	-0.1
2029PROJ86% MLB	30	MLBTOR	20	0	21	4.81	4.96	17.0%	7.3%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%61

xwOBA vs21

FB Velo10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsEvan Scribner (age 28) · Joel Peralta (age 29) · George Kontos (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.40

FIP4.66

K%17.2%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%10.8%

Proj IP63

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.5

Whiff%

p2021.1%

p6124.3%

xwOBA vs

p210.346

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	18	69	30	3	2	0%	1.3	33.6%	5.1%	28.6%	3.3%	3.50	2.72	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	18	69	30	3	2	0%	1.3	43.5%	4.3%	39.1%	2.9%	3.50	1.71	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	55	242	71	18	2	0%	1.1	25.0%	8.0%	17.0%	0.9%	4.07	2.52	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	55	242	71	18	2	0%	1.1	29.3%	7.4%	21.9%	0.8%	4.07	1.98	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	47	4	63	281	87	24	7	9%	1.3	26.6%	7.7%	18.9%	2.6%	3.98	3.28	—
2023	24	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	47	4	63	281	87	24	7	9%	1.3	31.0%	8.5%	22.4%	2.5%	3.98	2.93	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	1	36	162	49	11	2	4%	1.3	24.4%	6.7%	17.7%	1.9%	2.75	2.92	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	1	36	162	49	11	2	4%	1.3	24.4%	6.7%	17.7%	1.9%	2.75	2.92	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	1	36	162	49	11	2	4%	1.3	30.2%	6.8%	23.5%	1.2%	2.75	2.02	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	69	283	74	18	11	0%	1.3	24.3%	6.0%	18.3%	4.4%	5.19	4.21	+0.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	69	283	74	18	11	0%	1.3	24.3%	6.0%	18.3%	4.4%	5.19	4.21	+0.3
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	69	283	74	18	11	0%	1.3	26.1%	6.4%	19.8%	3.9%	5.19	3.81	+0.6
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	63	258	52	25	6	0%	1.2	18.7%	7.9%	10.8%	1.5%	2.70	3.36	+0.9
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	63	258	52	25	6	0%	1.2	18.7%	7.9%	10.8%	1.5%	2.70	3.36	+0.9
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	63	258	52	25	6	0%	1.2	20.2%	9.7%	10.5%	2.3%	2.70	3.87	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			40	0	47	190	41	14	10	0%	1.2	21.6%	7.4%	14.2%	5.3%	4.60	5.01	-0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TOR	46	0	48	203	35	13	7	0%	1.0	17.2%	6.4%	10.8%	3.3%	4.40	4.66	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TOR	35	0	37	157	27	11	5	0%	1.1	17.2%	6.9%	10.3%	3.4%	4.62	4.79	-0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	TOR	23	0	24	102	17	7	4	0%	1.1	17.0%	7.3%	9.6%	3.6%	4.81	4.96	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	TOR	30	0	31	131	23	9	5	0%	1.0	17.2%	6.9%	10.3%	3.4%	4.62	4.79	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	TOR	20	0	21	89	15	7	3	0%	1.1	17.0%	7.3%	9.6%	3.6%	4.81	4.96	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		89	0	98	407	78	29	18	0%	1.1	19.2%	7.2%	12.0%	4.3%	4.65	4.77	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		181	0	200	827	158	59	37	0%	1.1	19.2%	7.2%	12.0%	4.3%	4.65	4.77	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		246	5	305	1295	315	93	31	2%	1.2	24.3%	7.2%	17.2%	2.4%	3.83	3.28	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		161	3	200	848	206	61	21	2%	1.2	24.3%	7.2%	17.2%	2.4%	3.83	3.28	-0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 54 IPFIP 3.14 → 3.36 (+0.22)K% 21.8% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.76%	—	×0.860	18.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.80%	—	×0.900	7.92%
HR / BF /BF	1.39%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.53%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.14 → 3.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 32 IPFIP 3.29 → 3.95 (+0.66)K% 28.1% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.15%	—	×0.860	24.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×0.900	6.67%
HR / BF /BF	2.96%	÷0.872	×1.100	3.74%

Result: FIP 3.29 → 3.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 33 IPFIP 2.39 → 2.92 (+0.53)K% 28.4% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.38%	—	×0.860	24.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.43%	—	×0.900	6.69%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷0.792	×1.100	1.88%

Result: FIP 2.39 → 2.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAARound Rock Express · 63 IPFIP 2.93 → 3.28 (+0.34)K% 31.0% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.96%	—	×0.860	26.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.54%	—	×0.900	7.69%
HR / BF /BF	2.49%	÷1.035	×1.100	2.65%

Result: FIP 2.93 → 3.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAARound Rock Express · 31 IPFIP 2.34 → 2.78 (+0.45)K% 28.5% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.47%	—	×0.880	25.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.94%	—	×1.050	7.29%
HR / BF /BF	1.39%	÷0.957	×1.100	1.60%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 2.34 → 2.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 24 IPFIP 1.55 → 2.14 (+0.59)K% 30.6% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.61%	—	×0.810	24.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.16%	—	×1.100	8.98%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.915	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 1.55 → 2.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 17 IPFIP 1.87 → 2.72 (+0.86)K% 41.5% → 33.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.54%	—	×0.810	33.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.62%	—	×1.100	5.08%
HR / BF /BF	3.08%	÷1.114	×1.200	3.32%

Result: FIP 1.87 → 2.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Lee (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	17.2%	6.4%	3.3%	—	4.86	17.1%	10.1%	61	+0.20	—	—	—
Evan Scribner R 2013 · 4.06 FIP	28	SU	4.06	16.7%	6.1%	2.9%	.271	4.59	26.9%	25.2%	60	+0.53	3.23	136	83
Joel Peralta R 2005 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.7%	8.3%	4.1%	.227	4.27	18.0%	13.3%	214	-0.40	2.70	648	80
George Kontos R 2013 · 4.03 FIP	28	SU	4.03	19.7%	6.7%	3.2%	.315	3.59	17.0%	11.5%	159	-0.44	2.56	421	79
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	78
Chasen Bradford R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.5%	5.6%	4.0%	.269	5.00	17.7%	11.9%	69	+0.38	2.99	322	75
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	75
Rafael Betancourt R 2003 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	23.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.216	2.84	25.0%	20.8%	191	-0.97	1.79	686	74
Vinny Nittoli R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	28	SU	4.18	19.0%	6.9%	3.3%	.302	3.86	26.9%	20.4%	93	-0.32	3.66	331	74
A.J. Schugel R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	28	SU	4.01	20.1%	8.1%	2.9%	.307	6.37	17.6%	10.6%	13	+2.36	2.80	299	73
Brandon Gomes R 2012 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	18.1%	10.8%	2.5%	.246	4.36	20.7%	15.1%	112	+0.05	3.48	190	73
Ryan Thompson R 2020 · 4.27 FIP	28	SU	4.27	20.2%	7.0%	3.6%	.316	3.05	23.2%	16.7%	129	-1.22	2.69	513	73
Santiago Casilla R 2008 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	18.8%	7.9%	2.2%	.337	3.37	20.6%	10.4%	155	-0.34	2.76	647	73
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	73
Leo Rosales R 2009 · 3.85 FIP	28	SU	3.85	16.7%	5.4%	2.7%	.250	4.62	15.0%	3.7%	16	+0.77	3.85	130	72
Chad Paronto R 2002 · 3.73 FIP	27	SU	3.73	14.9%	6.5%	1.9%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	160	72
Cristhian Martinez R 2010 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	20.0%	4.5%	2.9%	.312	3.43	19.8%	14.6%	151	-0.18	3.09	204	72
J.J. Putz R 2005 · 4.36 FIP	28	SU	4.36	17.4%	8.1%	3.1%	.270	2.24	31.4%	25.1%	196	-2.12	1.43	563	72
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	250	72
Paul Sewald R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	28	SU	3.96	22.9%	8.3%	3.2%	.325	3.31	30.7%	24.2%	135	-0.65	2.71	611	72
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	43	18.3%	7.3%	1.51	4.56
Ricky Stone ('07)	1.3	64	15.2%	8.0%	1.55	4.68
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*