Carson Rudd

P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 190 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	A+CIN	21	15	66	4.64	4.19	27.2%	11.3%	—	K 21.0% · BB 13.0% · FIP 5.53
2024	25	AACIN	33	5	77	3.04	3.79	25.2%	16.9%	—	K 20.4% · BB 18.6% · FIP 4.45
2025	26	MIX3 levels	26	0	44	7.51	4.61	13.2%	13.2%	—	K 10.9% · BB 15.5% · FIP 4.97
2027PROJ	28	MLBCIN	25	0	26	5.41	5.41	17.4%	14.8%	-0.2
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBCIN	8	0	8	5.38	5.43	17.7%	14.5%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsThad Weber (age 28) · Dustin Antolin (age 27) · Alex Caldera (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.41

FIP5.41

K%17.4%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%2.6%

Proj IP26

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	4	16	73	25	9	2	57%	2.3	25.4%	10.6%	14.8%	2.0%	5.51	3.39	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	4	16	73	25	9	2	57%	2.3	34.2%	12.3%	21.9%	2.7%	5.51	3.28	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	3	50	222	71	30	10	11%	1.8	24.1%	15.8%	8.4%	5.5%	5.72	6.05	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	3	50	222	71	30	10	11%	1.8	32.0%	13.5%	18.5%	4.5%	5.72	4.65	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	21	15	66	283	77	32	10	71%	3.1	21.0%	13.0%	7.9%	4.6%	4.64	5.53	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	21	15	66	283	77	32	10	71%	3.1	27.2%	11.3%	15.9%	3.5%	4.64	4.19	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	33	5	77	337	85	57	4	15%	2.3	20.4%	18.6%	1.8%	1.3%	3.04	4.45	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	33	5	77	337	85	57	4	15%	2.3	20.4%	18.6%	1.8%	1.3%	3.04	4.45	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	33	5	77	337	85	57	4	15%	2.3	25.2%	16.9%	8.3%	1.2%	3.04	3.79	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	44	212	28	28	3	0%	1.7	10.9%	15.5%	-4.6%	1.5%	7.51	4.97	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	44	212	28	28	3	0%	1.7	10.9%	15.5%	-4.6%	1.5%	7.51	4.97	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	0	44	212	28	28	3	0%	1.7	13.2%	13.2%	0.0%	1.4%	7.51	4.61	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	CIN	25	0	26	110	19	16	3	0%	1.0	17.4%	14.8%	2.6%	2.8%	5.41	5.41	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CIN	24	0	25	105	19	15	3	0%	1.0	17.7%	14.5%	3.3%	2.9%	5.38	5.43	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	CIN	8	0	8	34	6	5	1	0%	1.0	17.7%	14.5%	3.3%	2.9%	5.38	5.43	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	8	33	6	5	1	0%	1.1	17.7%	14.5%	3.3%	2.9%	5.38	5.05	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	154	128	26	0%	1.1	17.7%	14.5%	3.3%	2.9%	5.38	5.05	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		115	27	254	1127	223	175	34	23%	2.2	19.8%	15.5%	4.3%	3.0%	4.93	5.07	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	21	200	887	176	138	27	23%	2.2	19.8%	15.5%	4.3%	3.0%	4.93	5.07	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Rudd (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.41	17.4%	14.8%	2.8%	—	5.43	17.7%	3.3%	25	+0.02	—	—	—
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	80
Dustin Antolin R 2017 · 4.35 FIP	27	SW	4.35	16.2%	14.4%	1.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	159	79
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	78
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	78
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	77
Jake Haberer R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	16.4%	14.7%	2.8%	.262	5.03	16.2%	-1.4%	15	-0.07	3.46	183	75
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	75
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	74
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	74
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	73
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	73
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	73
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	73
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	73
Brian Glowicki R 2022 · 5.39 FIP	27	SU	5.39	18.2%	15.9%	3.3%	.229	—	—	—	—	—	2.31	189	73
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	72
Jorge Campillo R 2007 · 4.84 FIP	28	SU	4.84	14.3%	9.5%	3.2%	.348	3.93	16.3%	10.8%	159	-0.91	3.93	172	72
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	72
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	72
Cory Rasmus R 2016 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	14.9%	13.2%	3.4%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	2.34	138	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	17.6%	14.6%	1.10	5.40
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*