Gus Hughes

P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	ANYY	35	0	45	3.80	3.72	21.4%	10.2%	—	K 15.9% · BB 12.0% · FIP 5.02
2026	24	MIX2 levels	27	1	53	3.88	2.73	25.9%	6.9%	—	K 20.0% · BB 7.8% · FIP 3.76
2027PROJ	25	MLBWSH	57	0	60	5.03	5.03	17.3%	11.0%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBWSH	24	0	25	4.95	4.94	18.2%	10.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBWSH	35	0	37	4.92	4.93	18.5%	10.8%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsVinnie Chulk (age 25) · Juan Paniagua (age 25) · D.J. Carrasco (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%17.3%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%6.3%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	35	0	45	196	42	20	4	0%	1.3	15.9%	12.0%	3.8%	3.2%	3.80	5.02	—
2025	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	35	0	45	196	42	20	4	0%	1.3	15.9%	12.0%	3.8%	3.2%	3.80	5.02	—
2025	23	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	35	0	45	196	42	20	4	0%	1.3	21.4%	10.2%	11.2%	2.0%	3.80	3.72	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	53	232	60	16	4	4%	2.0	20.0%	7.8%	12.2%	2.5%	3.88	3.76	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	53	232	60	16	4	4%	2.0	20.0%	7.8%	12.2%	2.5%	3.88	3.76	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	1	53	232	60	16	4	4%	2.0	25.9%	6.9%	19.0%	1.7%	3.88	2.73	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	WSH	57	0	60	253	44	28	7	0%	1.1	17.3%	11.0%	6.3%	3.0%	5.03	5.03	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	57	0	60	251	46	27	7	0%	1.0	18.2%	10.8%	7.4%	3.0%	4.95	4.94	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	56	0	59	247	46	27	7	0%	1.0	18.5%	10.8%	7.8%	3.0%	4.92	4.93	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	24	0	25	106	19	11	3	0%	1.0	18.2%	10.8%	7.4%	3.0%	4.95	4.94	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	35	0	37	156	29	17	5	0%	1.1	18.5%	10.8%	7.8%	3.0%	4.92	4.93	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	263	48	28	8	0%	1.1	18.4%	10.8%	7.6%	3.0%	4.93	4.55	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	154	90	26	0%	1.1	18.4%	10.8%	7.6%	3.0%	4.93	4.55	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		62	1	98	428	77	42	12	2%	1.6	18.1%	9.8%	8.3%	2.8%	3.84	4.33	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	2	200	871	158	85	24	2%	1.6	18.1%	9.8%	8.3%	2.8%	3.84	4.33	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gus Hughes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	17.3%	11.0%	3.0%	—	4.94	18.3%	7.6%	118	-0.09	—	—	—
Vinnie Chulk R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	17.7%	10.5%	2.4%	.308	3.95	16.9%	9.6%	171	-0.31	2.97	271	91
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	91
D.J. Carrasco R 2003 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	16.1%	10.1%	2.2%	.291	4.66	10.5%	1.4%	150	+0.39	3.23	490	90
Rhiner Cruz R 2012 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	18.2%	11.5%	3.2%	.335	4.81	10.2%	-1.0%	21	+0.01	3.21	127	89
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	89
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	25	SU	4.59	15.1%	10.4%	2.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	218	88
David Goforth R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	17.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.60	3.98	256	88
Alex Palsha R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	25	SU	3.95	16.0%	10.9%	1.5%	.293	3.40	12.8%	1.8%	17	-0.55	3.40	134	87
Junior Lopez R 2016 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	15.7%	9.9%	1.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	128	87
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	87
Pedro Echemendia R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	25	SU	4.79	15.0%	8.0%	3.5%	.286	4.31	11.0%	5.9%	72	-0.48	4.31	141	87
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	87
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.49	14.0%	6.3%	162	+0.26	3.81	291	87
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	87
Jordan Milbrath R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	19.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.272	3.61	19.6%	9.7%	129	-0.44	3.19	386	87
Raul Fernandez R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	14.2%	9.4%	1.7%	.285	4.79	16.1%	5.0%	103	+0.76	4.03	165	87
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	86
Scott Oberg R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	17.0%	11.2%	3.4%	.273	2.92	22.8%	15.6%	188	-2.04	2.54	302	86
Dylan Simmons R 2024 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	17.8%	9.4%	1.9%	.295	5.10	12.7%	0.6%	74	+1.25	3.85	125	86
Logan Bawcom R 2015 · 3.85 FIP	26	SU	3.85	15.8%	9.1%	1.7%	.320	4.35	15.9%	6.2%	259	+0.50	3.73	399	86

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	18.0%	10.9%	1.15	4.97
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*