John Stankiewicz

P Erie SeaWolves

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX3 levels	43	0	62	4.23	3.33	20.4%	5.4%	—	K 15.8% · BB 6.1% · FIP 4.40
2025	26	MIX2 levels	44	1	56	4.50	3.62	22.9%	12.1%	—	K 16.6% · BB 12.6% · FIP 4.56
2026	27	AADET	7	0	10	7.45	4.86	24.0%	10.0%	—	K 19.4% · BB 11.0% · FIP 5.49
2027PROJ	28	MLBDET	56	0	59	5.33	5.33	16.5%	12.4%	-0.5
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBDET	17	0	18	5.30	5.36	17.0%	12.3%	-0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBDET	26	0	27	5.36	5.46	17.1%	12.4%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control40Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsLuis Mateo (age 27) · Beck Wheeler (age 28) · Spencer Bivens (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.33

FIP5.33

K%16.5%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%4.1%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	5	25	106	30	9	0	62%	3.2	18.5%	9.8%	8.7%	0.0%	2.84	2.78	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	5	25	106	30	9	0	62%	3.2	28.3%	8.5%	19.8%	0.0%	2.84	1.80	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	65	272	68	21	5	93%	4.3	18.9%	8.9%	10.0%	2.4%	4.18	3.97	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	14	65	272	68	21	5	93%	4.3	25.0%	7.7%	17.3%	1.8%	4.18	2.98	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	37	0	67	263	66	15	7	0%	1.8	19.3%	6.6%	12.8%	2.9%	3.10	3.91	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	37	0	67	263	66	15	7	0%	1.8	25.1%	5.7%	19.4%	2.7%	3.10	3.16	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	0	62	260	53	14	6	0%	1.4	15.8%	6.1%	9.7%	3.4%	4.23	4.40	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	0	62	260	53	14	6	0%	1.4	15.8%	6.1%	9.7%	3.4%	4.23	4.40	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	0	62	260	53	14	6	0%	1.4	20.4%	5.4%	15.0%	2.3%	4.23	3.33	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	1	56	240	55	29	4	2%	1.3	16.6%	12.6%	4.0%	2.3%	4.50	4.56	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	1	56	240	55	29	4	2%	1.3	16.6%	12.6%	4.0%	2.3%	4.50	4.56	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	1	56	240	55	29	4	2%	1.3	22.9%	12.1%	10.8%	1.7%	4.50	3.62	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	7	0	10	50	12	5	2	0%	1.4	19.4%	11.0%	8.4%	4.8%	7.45	5.49	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	7	0	10	50	12	5	2	0%	1.4	19.4%	11.0%	8.4%	4.8%	7.45	5.49	—
2026	27	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	7	0	10	50	12	5	2	0%	1.4	24.0%	10.0%	14.0%	4.0%	7.45	4.86	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	DET	56	0	59	249	41	31	8	0%	1.1	16.5%	12.4%	4.1%	3.0%	5.33	5.33	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	DET	54	0	56	237	40	29	8	0%	1.0	17.0%	12.3%	4.6%	3.2%	5.30	5.36	-0.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	DET	50	0	53	223	38	28	8	0%	1.1	17.1%	12.4%	4.7%	3.4%	5.36	5.46	-0.5
2028	29	MLB CTX	DET	17	0	18	76	13	9	2	0%	1.1	17.0%	12.3%	4.6%	3.2%	5.30	5.36	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	DET	26	0	27	114	20	14	4	0%	1.0	17.1%	12.4%	4.7%	3.4%	5.36	5.46	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	0	45	189	32	23	6	0%	1.0	17.1%	12.4%	4.7%	3.3%	5.34	5.04	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	143	103	27	0%	1.1	17.1%	12.4%	4.7%	3.3%	5.34	5.04	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		154	20	284	1191	212	104	31	13%	1.8	17.8%	8.7%	9.1%	2.6%	3.99	4.13	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	14	200	839	150	73	22	13%	1.8	17.8%	8.7%	9.1%	2.6%	3.99	4.13	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John Stankiewicz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.33	16.5%	12.4%	3.0%	—	5.41	17.0%	4.7%	109	+0.08	—	—	—
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	87
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	85
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	83
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	82
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	82
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	82
Grant Black R 2022 · 5.20 FIP	28	SU	5.20	14.0%	11.0%	3.5%	.250	5.49	15.9%	4.6%	79	+0.29	4.46	215	82
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	81
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	81
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	81
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	80
David Goforth R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	28	SU	5.09	13.6%	10.2%	3.4%	.282	4.07	14.1%	5.5%	68	-1.02	3.98	256	80
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	80
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	80
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	80
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	79
Jake Haberer R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	16.4%	14.7%	2.8%	.262	5.03	16.2%	-1.4%	15	-0.07	3.46	183	79
Kyle McMyne R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	12.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	181	79
Brian Bass R 2009 · 4.70 FIP	27	SU	4.70	13.5%	9.8%	2.8%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	4.70	176	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	16.9%	12.4%	1.23	5.33
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*