Reginald Preciado
SS South Bend Cubs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | ACHC | 380 | .229/.285/.312 | 4 | 12 | 24 | — | .180/.223/.239 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+CHC | 315 | .218/.292/.302 | 3 | 10 | 32 | — | .181/.238/.242 |
| 2026 | 23 | A+CHC | 112 | .262/.321/.388 | 2 | 1 | 38 | — | .190/.241/.267 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBCHC | 200 | .172/.222/.241 | 2 | 3 | 30 | -0.3 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBCHC | 33 | .179/.230/.260 | 0 | 1 | 37 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 154 | 141 | 47 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 35 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 333 | 386 | 511 | 896 | 177 | 423 | 23 | 7 | 392 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 185 | 166 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 69 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 199 | 265 | 295 | 560 | 96 | 320 | 37 | 5 | 252 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 37 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 297 | 333 | 631 | 121 | 368 | 38 | 11 | 286 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 90 | 81 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 160 | 227 | 198 | 425 | 37 | 220 | 26 | 6 | 198 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 22 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 143 | 200 | 343 | 100 | 167 | 41 | 5 | 146 | -55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 380 | 349 | 80 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 109 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 229 | 285 | 312 | 597 | 83 | 321 | 29 | 6 | 269 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 315 | 285 | 62 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 75 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 218 | 292 | 302 | 594 | 84 | 285 | 24 | 7 | 275 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 112 | 103 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 262 | 321 | 388 | 710 | 126 | 410 | 36 | 6 | 320 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 154 | 146 | 36 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 51 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 247 | 281 | 363 | 644 | 116 | 361 | 33 | 4 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 185 | 169 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 96 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 154 | 210 | 213 | 423 | 59 | 320 | 52 | 4 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 37 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 114 | 162 | 200 | 362 | 86 | 290 | 57 | 5 | 161 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 90 | 82 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 134 | 193 | 171 | 364 | 37 | 195 | 34 | 4 | 156 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 22 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 143 | 200 | 343 | 100 | 125 | 59 | 5 | 87 | -55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 380 | 356 | 64 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 150 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 180 | 223 | 239 | 462 | 59 | 292 | 39 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 315 | 293 | 53 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 91 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 181 | 238 | 242 | 480 | 61 | 250 | 29 | 4 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 112 | 105 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 51 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 241 | 267 | 508 | 76 | 343 | 46 | 4 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 154 | 146 | 36 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 51 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 247 | 281 | 363 | 644 | 116 | 362 | 33 | 4 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Cubs | — | 154 | 141 | 47 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 35 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 333 | 386 | 511 | 896 | 177 | 423 | 23 | 7 | 392 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 222 | 204 | 31 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 116 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 152 | 206 | 216 | 422 | 64 | 337 | 52 | 4 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 222 | 199 | 40 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 83 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 201 | 271 | 302 | 572 | 101 | 328 | 37 | 6 | 257 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 112 | 103 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 44 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 117 | 165 | 146 | 311 | 29 | 197 | 39 | 4 | 142 | -17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 112 | 101 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 149 | 211 | 198 | 409 | 50 | 211 | 29 | 5 | 188 | -17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 380 | 356 | 64 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 150 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 180 | 223 | 239 | 462 | 59 | 299 | 39 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A RAW | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 380 | 349 | 80 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 109 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 229 | 285 | 312 | 597 | 83 | 321 | 29 | 6 | 269 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 315 | 293 | 53 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 91 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 181 | 238 | 242 | 480 | 61 | 255 | 29 | 4 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ RAW | South Bend Cubs | — | 315 | 285 | 62 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 75 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 218 | 292 | 302 | 594 | 84 | 285 | 24 | 7 | 275 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 112 | 105 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 51 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 241 | 267 | 508 | 76 | 358 | 46 | 4 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ RAW | South Bend Cubs | — | 112 | 103 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 262 | 321 | 388 | 710 | 126 | 410 | 36 | 6 | 320 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 154 | 146 | 36 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 51 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 247 | 281 | 363 | 644 | 116 | 361 | 33 | 4 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 222 | 206 | 31 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 116 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 150 | 206 | 214 | 420 | 63 | 315 | 52 | 4 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 112 | 105 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 44 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 114 | 165 | 143 | 308 | 29 | 181 | 39 | 4 | 142 | -17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 380 | 357 | 64 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 150 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 179 | 223 | 238 | 461 | 59 | 292 | 39 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 315 | 290 | 53 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 91 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 183 | 238 | 245 | 483 | 62 | 250 | 29 | 4 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 112 | 104 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 51 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 241 | 269 | 510 | 77 | 343 | 46 | 4 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 380 | 357 | 64 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 150 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 179 | 223 | 238 | 461 | 59 | 292 | 39 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 315 | 290 | 53 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 91 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 183 | 238 | 245 | 483 | 62 | 250 | 29 | 4 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 112 | 104 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 51 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 241 | 269 | 510 | 77 | 343 | 46 | 4 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | CHC | 0% | 200 | 186 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 75 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 172 | 222 | 241 | 463 | 69 | 272 | 38 | 4 | 212 | 30 | -17 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | CHC | 30% | 108 | 101 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 40 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 178 | 229 | 259 | 488 | 81 | 274 | 37 | 5 | 222 | 37 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | CHC | 30% | 33 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 179 | 230 | 260 | 491 | 81 | 277 | 36 | 6 | 223 | 37 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 33 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 161 | 212 | 194 | 406 | 32 | 263 | 36 | 6 | 223 | 29 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 611 | 99 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 236 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 162 | 212 | 195 | 407 | 33 | 264 | 36 | 6 | 223 | 29 | -49 | +4 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -2.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1466 | 1367 | 244 | 47 | 6 | 11 | 63 | 567 | 23 | 39 | 12 | 178 | 227 | 246 | 473 | 67 | 293 | 39 | 4 | 211 | 29 | -13 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 606 | 109 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 251 | 10 | 17 | 5 | 180 | 228 | 249 | 477 | 69 | 295 | 39 | 4 | 211 | 29 | -51 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -3.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+South Bend Cubs · 112 PAwOBA .311 → .224 (−87)K% 35.7% → 45.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.71% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 45.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 4.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.79% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 24.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 8.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.53% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .311 → .224; ISO .126 → .086; BABIP .410 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+South Bend Cubs · 315 PAwOBA .266 → .215 (−51)K% 23.8% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.81% | ÷1.051 | ×1.270 | — | — | 28.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.042 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 4.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.54% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 2.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.95% | ÷1.021 | ×0.920 | ×0.993 | ×1.012 | 18.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.993 | ×1.012 | 5.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.993 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.43% | ÷1.106 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.05% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 110, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .266 → .215; ISO .084 → .064; BABIP .285 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 380 PAwOBA .263 → .204 (−59)K% 28.7% → 39.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.68% | ÷0.985 | ×1.360 | — | — | 39.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.32% | ÷1.007 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 4.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.79% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.42% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×0.993 | ×1.015 | 23.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.42% | ÷0.986 | ×0.830 | ×0.993 | ×1.015 | 4.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.993 | ×1.015 | 0.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.67% | ÷0.908 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.49% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .263 → .204; ISO .083 → .063; BABIP .321 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 90 PAwOBA .195 → .156 (−39)K% 25.6% → 34.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.56% | ÷1.011 | ×1.360 | — | — | 34.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 4.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.22% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.97% | ÷1.046 | ×0.920 | ×0.988 | ×1.030 | 16.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.72% | ÷0.975 | ×0.830 | ×0.988 | ×1.030 | 1.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.988 | ×1.030 | 1.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.957 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 109, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .195 → .156; ISO .037 → .028; BABIP .220 → .195. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Cubs · 22 PAwOBA .149 → .087 (−62)K% 40.9% → 58.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 40.91% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 58.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 2.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 7.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 6.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .149 → .087; ISO .100 → .055; BABIP .167 → .125. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 185 PAwOBA .248 → .194 (−54)K% 37.3% → 51.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.30% | ÷0.978 | ×1.360 | — | — | 51.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.41% | ÷1.017 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 3.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.70% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 2.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.71% | ÷0.975 | ×0.920 | ×1.044 | ×1.045 | 24.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.19% | ÷0.947 | ×0.830 | ×1.044 | ×1.045 | 5.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.06% | ÷1.068 | ×0.910 | ×1.044 | ×1.045 | 1.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.06% | ÷0.942 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 1.83% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 95, 2B 89, 3B 114, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.044.
Result: wOBA .248 → .194; ISO .096 → .072; BABIP .320 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Cubs · 37 PAwOBA .279 → .161 (−118)K% 37.8% → 55.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.84% | ÷0.981 | ×1.440 | — | — | 55.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.81% | ÷1.083 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 6.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷0.993 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 17.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.53% | ÷0.970 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 7.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.054 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 3.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 99, 2B 94, 3B 111, K 96, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .279 → .161; ISO .121 → .065; BABIP .368 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Cubs · 154 PAwOBA .384 → .286 (−98)K% 22.7% → 33.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.73% | ÷0.992 | ×1.440 | — | — | 32.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷1.071 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 4.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.25% | ÷1.002 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 25.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.43% | ÷0.947 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 7.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.83% | ÷0.947 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 2.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.83% | ÷1.014 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 2.23% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 100, 2B 89, 3B 89, K 98, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .384 → .286; ISO .177 → .129; BABIP .423 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).