Dylan Nedved prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Dylan Nedved P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 101

ERA4.44

FIP4.44

K%21.7%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%12.5%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	7	0	9	52	3	10	2	0%	1.3	4.3%	22.7%	-18.4%	5.3%	12.00	8.54	—
2022	23	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	7	0	9	52	3	10	2	0%	1.3	5.8%	19.2%	-13.5%	3.8%	12.00	8.66	—
2023	24	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	39	0	51	221	47	17	3	0%	1.3	15.7%	9.1%	6.7%	1.6%	4.94	3.78	—
2023	24	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	39	0	51	221	47	17	3	0%	1.3	15.7%	9.1%	6.7%	1.6%	4.94	3.78	—
2023	24	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	39	0	51	221	47	17	3	0%	1.3	21.3%	7.7%	13.6%	1.4%	4.94	3.02	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.7%	9.2%	12.5%	3.0%	4.44	4.44	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SD	33	0	35	146	32	14	4	0%	1.0	21.7%	9.3%	12.4%	3.1%	4.48	4.51	+0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	SD	12	0	13	55	12	5	2	0%	1.1	21.7%	9.3%	12.4%	3.1%	4.48	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	53	12	5	2	0%	1.0	21.7%	9.3%	12.4%	3.1%	4.48	4.13	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	80	32	0%	1.1	21.7%	9.3%	12.4%	3.1%	4.48	4.13	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		46	0	60	273	37	32	6	0%	1.3	13.6%	11.7%	1.9%	2.3%	6.00	4.69	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	0	200	910	123	106	21	0%	1.3	13.6%	11.7%	1.9%	2.3%	6.00	4.69	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Nedved (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	21.7%	9.2%	3.0%	—	4.51	21.7%	12.4%	35	+0.07	—	—	—
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	90
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	89
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	88
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	88
Santiago Casilla R 2007 · 3.58 FIP	27	SU	3.58	23.7%	7.8%	2.7%	.257	3.60	19.8%	10.7%	154	+0.02	2.76	647	88
Jose Veras R 2008 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	24.9%	9.1%	2.8%	.281	4.10	23.8%	11.7%	169	+0.43	3.37	422	87
Jason Motte R 2009 · 4.62 FIP	27	SU	4.62	22.1%	9.0%	4.1%	.297	2.84	26.9%	21.0%	192	-1.78	2.22	387	87
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	87
Matt Ramsey R 2017 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	24.2%	9.6%	1.8%	.330	3.21	23.6%	14.6%	81	-0.04	2.42	125	86
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	86
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2011 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	22.1%	9.6%	1.5%	.253	3.18	22.9%	13.4%	218	-0.10	2.72	398	86
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	86
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	85
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	84
Ryan Kelly R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	20.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.241	3.21	20.8%	14.2%	43	-0.31	2.49	131	84
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	84
José A. Váldez R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	21.6%	8.3%	3.8%	.325	4.15	18.8%	6.4%	153	-0.24	4.02	328	84
Brandon Gomes R 2011 · 3.74 FIP	27	SU	3.74	20.0%	10.0%	1.9%	.284	4.17	22.3%	15.2%	71	+0.43	3.48	190	84
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	84
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	35	21.7%	9.2%	1.17	4.46
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16