Carson Carter prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Carson Carter P Aberdeen IronBirds

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 212 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%22.6%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%11.1%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles Orange	2	1	1	8	1	1	0	50%	0.7	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.0%	20.25	3.63	—
2021	23	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles Orange	2	1	1	8	1	1	0	50%	0.7	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.0%	20.25	3.85	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	40	191	46	21	8	0%	1.9	18.3%	12.8%	5.5%	5.0%	7.59	5.91	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	40	191	46	21	8	0%	1.9	24.1%	11.0%	13.1%	4.2%	7.59	4.96	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	30	0	38	174	46	23	4	0%	1.3	20.4%	15.2%	5.2%	3.2%	4.30	5.04	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	30	0	38	174	46	23	4	0%	1.3	20.4%	15.2%	5.2%	3.2%	4.30	5.04	—
2023	25	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	30	0	38	174	46	23	4	0%	1.3	26.4%	13.2%	13.2%	2.3%	4.30	3.87	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.6%	11.5%	11.1%	3.0%	4.67	4.67	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	BAL	20	0	21	90	20	10	3	0%	1.1	22.4%	11.5%	11.0%	3.2%	4.72	4.77	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	BAL	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.4%	11.5%	11.0%	3.2%	4.72	4.77	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	27	6	3	1	0%	1.1	22.4%	11.5%	11.0%	3.2%	4.72	4.39	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	94	31	0%	1.1	22.4%	11.5%	11.0%	3.2%	4.72	4.39	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		53	1	79	373	71	52	15	2%	1.5	19.1%	13.9%	5.2%	4.0%	6.24	5.46	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	3	200	940	180	131	38	2%	1.5	19.1%	13.9%	5.2%	4.0%	6.24	5.46	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Carter (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	22.6%	11.5%	3.0%	—	4.77	22.5%	11.0%	21	+0.10	—	—	—
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	85
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	84
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	84
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	83
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	83
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	83
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	83
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	83
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	82
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	82
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	82
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	81
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	81
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	81
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	81
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	80
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	80
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	80
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.36	21.4%	10.8%	92	+0.05	3.89	168	80
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	80