Anthony Simonelli

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	43	1	74	2.93	3.02	29.6%	10.2%	—	K 24.2% · BB 10.7% · FIP 3.70
2025	26	AAAKC	10	3	15	5.40	5.03	26.1%	18.8%	—	K 22.4% · BB 17.0% · FIP 5.10
2026	27	MIX2 levels	27	0	32	6.82	6.45	20.3%	14.0%	—	K 17.3% · BB 17.1% · FIP 5.72
2027PROJ	28	MLBKC	14	0	15	5.18	5.18	20.8%	14.1%	-0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBKC	6	0	6	5.17	5.22	20.9%	13.9%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsSpencer Bivens (age 28) · Wirfin Obispo (age 30) · Thad Weber (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 115

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%20.8%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%6.7%

Proj IP15

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	2	20	76	24	4	1	20%	2.0	31.6%	5.3%	26.3%	1.3%	1.37	1.82	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	2	20	76	24	4	1	20%	2.0	31.6%	5.3%	26.3%	1.3%	1.37	1.93	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	5	73	324	72	24	13	17%	2.5	17.5%	9.1%	8.4%	5.1%	4.91	5.59	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	5	73	324	72	24	13	17%	2.5	22.2%	7.4%	14.8%	4.0%	4.91	4.42	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	50	209	56	15	5	0%	1.2	20.9%	8.2%	12.7%	3.1%	3.99	4.05	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	50	209	56	15	5	0%	1.2	26.8%	7.2%	19.6%	2.4%	3.99	3.06	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	1	74	294	87	30	6	2%	1.7	24.2%	10.7%	13.5%	2.3%	2.93	3.70	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	1	74	294	87	30	6	2%	1.7	24.2%	10.7%	13.5%	2.3%	2.93	3.70	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	1	74	294	87	30	6	2%	1.7	29.6%	10.2%	19.4%	2.0%	2.93	3.02	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	10	3	15	69	18	13	2	30%	1.5	22.4%	17.0%	5.5%	3.2%	5.40	5.10	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	10	3	15	69	18	13	2	30%	1.5	22.4%	17.0%	5.5%	3.2%	5.40	5.10	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	10	3	15	69	18	13	2	30%	1.5	26.1%	18.8%	7.2%	2.9%	5.40	5.03	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	32	143	29	20	8	0%	1.2	17.3%	17.1%	0.2%	3.5%	6.82	5.72	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	32	143	29	20	8	0%	1.2	17.3%	17.1%	0.2%	3.5%	6.82	5.72	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	32	143	29	20	8	0%	1.2	20.3%	14.0%	6.3%	5.6%	6.82	6.45	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	KC	14	0	15	63	13	9	2	0%	1.1	20.8%	14.1%	6.7%	3.0%	5.18	5.18	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	KC	19	0	20	84	18	12	3	0%	1.1	20.9%	13.9%	7.0%	3.2%	5.17	5.22	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	KC	6	0	6	25	5	4	1	0%	1.0	20.9%	13.9%	7.0%	3.2%	5.17	5.22	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	4	1	0%	1.0	20.9%	13.9%	7.0%	3.2%	5.17	4.84	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	128	32	0%	1.1	20.9%	13.9%	7.0%	3.2%	5.17	4.84	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		161	11	263	1115	236	118	38	7%	1.6	21.2%	10.6%	10.6%	3.4%	4.17	4.53	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	8	200	848	179	90	29	7%	1.6	21.2%	10.6%	10.6%	3.4%	4.17	4.53	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Anthony Simonelli (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	20.8%	14.1%	3.0%	—	5.22	20.9%	7.0%	20	+0.04	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	88
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	85
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	84
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	82
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	82
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	82
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	81
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	80
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	80
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	80
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	79
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	79
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	78
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	78
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	77
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	77
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	77
Keagan Gillies R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	21.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.306	3.91	20.0%	14.4%	74	-0.11	2.93	177	77
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	77
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	76