Alek Jacob
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
AAA
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 45 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130121vR 112
ERA4.47
FIP4.90
K%17.0%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%6.2%
ROS IP45
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1085.3
Whiff%
p2221.3%
K%
p1015.0%
xwOBA vs
p230.344
CH (34%)
SI (20%)
SL (3%)
FB (62%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 0 | 20 | 72 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 28.7% | 3.5% | 25.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.12 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 0 | 20 | 72 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 40.3% | 2.8% | 37.5% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.46 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 1 | 57 | 239 | 77 | 15 | 5 | 2% | 1.3 | 24.4% | 7.8% | 16.5% | 2.4% | 2.68 | 3.37 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 1 | 57 | 239 | 77 | 15 | 5 | 2% | 1.3 | 32.2% | 6.3% | 25.9% | 2.1% | 2.68 | 2.33 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 0 | 30 | 119 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.8% | 7.1% | 16.7% | 1.7% | 1.19 | 2.93 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 0 | 30 | 119 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 31.1% | 6.7% | 24.4% | 0.8% | 1.19 | 1.88 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 68 | 312 | 84 | 33 | 13 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.4% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 4.0% | 4.87 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 68 | 312 | 84 | 33 | 13 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.9% | 10.6% | 16.3% | 4.2% | 4.87 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 61 | 275 | 62 | 29 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 4.0% | 5.19 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 61 | 275 | 62 | 29 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 3.6% | 5.19 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 28 | 0 | 40 | 170 | 41 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.0% | 12.9% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 4.72 | 5.42 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SD | 43 | 0 | 45 | 189 | 32 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 10.8% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 4.47 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SD | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 32 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 10.8% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 4.47 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | SD | — | — | 85 | 359 | 73 | 40 | 13 | — | — | 20.4% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 3.7% | 4.59 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | SD | — | — | 50 | 210 | 73 | 40 | 13 | — | — | 34.8% | 19.3% | 15.5% | 6.4% | 7.82 | 6.11 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SD | 67 | 0 | 71 | 299 | 52 | 32 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 10.7% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 5.06 | 5.30 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SD | 63 | 0 | 67 | 281 | 48 | 31 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.1% | 10.9% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 5.25 | 5.43 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SD | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 49 | 30 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 10.7% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 5.06 | 5.30 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SD | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 45 | 29 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.1% | 10.9% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 5.25 | 5.43 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 209 | 0 | 231 | 983 | 180 | 99 | 34 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 4.79 | 4.74 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 181 | 0 | 200 | 850 | 156 | 86 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 4.79 | 4.74 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 209 | 1 | 276 | 1187 | 276 | 116 | 39 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.3% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 3.3% | 3.72 | 4.17 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 151 | 1 | 200 | 860 | 200 | 84 | 28 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.3% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 3.3% | 3.72 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alek Jacob (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.28 | 16.6% | 10.7% | 3.4% | — | 5.36 | 17.2% | 6.4% | 137 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Sam LeCure R 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.40 | 15.6% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .283 | 4.27 | 16.6% | 10.1% | 91 | -0.13 | 4.27 | 171 | 72 |
| Dusten Knight R 2026 · 5.63 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.63 | 17.3% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .314 | 4.54 | 23.8% | 12.0% | 94 | -1.09 | 2.78 | 385 | 68 |
| Josh Lucas R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.12 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 4.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.41 | 264 | 67 |
| Vinny Nittoli R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.36 | 19.0% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .302 | 3.71 | 26.9% | 20.4% | 93 | -0.65 | 3.59 | 331 | 66 |
| Zak Kent R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.93 | 16.4% | 10.6% | 3.4% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 354 | 63 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 2.9% | .274 | 4.63 | 21.1% | 11.2% | 310 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 556 | 62 |
| Jake Lemoine R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.41 | 14.8% | 12.0% | 3.7% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 290 | 61 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.66 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.62 | 3.66 | 348 | 61 |
| Collin Balester R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.25 | 14.2% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .240 | 3.40 | 21.2% | 15.4% | 43 | -0.85 | 3.40 | 116 | 61 |
| Vance Worley R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.56 | 15.3% | 9.6% | 2.8% | .278 | 4.89 | 12.2% | 4.4% | 133 | +0.33 | 4.01 | 411 | 61 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.18 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .307 | 6.22 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 13 | +2.04 | 2.75 | 299 | 61 |
| Ryan Thompson R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.32 | 20.2% | 7.0% | 3.7% | .316 | 3.07 | 23.3% | 16.4% | 129 | -1.25 | 2.73 | 507 | 60 |
| Yusmeiro Petit R 2028 · 4.12 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.12 | 18.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | .275 | 3.60 | 23.0% | 19.0% | 246 | -0.52 | 2.64 | 517 | 60 |
| Chasen Bradford R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.67 | 16.5% | 5.6% | 4.1% | .269 | 5.03 | 17.7% | 11.9% | 69 | +0.36 | 2.95 | 322 | 60 |
| Danny Barnes R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.54 | 19.9% | 11.0% | 3.1% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.64 | 243 | 60 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 59 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 59 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 59 |
| Tyler Cravy R 2026 · 5.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.85 | 13.8% | 10.4% | 4.7% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 276 | 59 |
| Norge Ruiz R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.37 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .318 | 5.17 | 13.2% | 3.8% | 45 | +0.80 | 3.57 | 367 | 58 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 62 | 17.0% | 10.7% | 1.37 | 5.07 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |