Alek Jacob — OGILVIE

Alek Jacob P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AAA ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.40

FIP4.79

K%16.3%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%6.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1085.3

Whiff%

p2221.3%

p1015.0%

xwOBA vs

p230.344

CH (34%)

SI (20%)

SL (3%)

FB (62%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	0	20	72	29	2	0	0%	1.5	28.7%	3.5%	25.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.12	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	0	20	72	29	2	0	0%	1.5	40.3%	2.8%	37.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.46	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	1	57	239	77	15	5	2%	1.3	24.4%	7.8%	16.5%	2.5%	2.68	3.42	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	1	57	239	77	15	5	2%	1.3	32.2%	6.3%	25.9%	2.1%	2.68	2.33	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	30	119	37	8	1	0%	1.4	23.8%	7.1%	16.7%	1.3%	1.19	2.72	+0.7
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	30	119	37	8	1	0%	1.4	23.8%	7.1%	16.7%	1.3%	1.19	2.72	+0.7
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	30	119	37	8	1	0%	1.4	31.1%	6.7%	24.4%	0.8%	1.19	1.88	+1.0
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	68	312	84	33	13	0%	1.4	23.4%	9.6%	13.8%	4.2%	4.87	4.67	-0.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	68	312	84	33	13	0%	1.4	23.4%	9.6%	13.8%	4.2%	4.87	4.67	-0.1
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	68	312	84	33	13	0%	1.4	26.9%	10.6%	16.3%	4.2%	4.87	4.56	-0.0
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	61	275	62	29	10	0%	1.1	20.1%	10.0%	10.1%	3.8%	5.19	4.73	-0.1
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	61	275	62	29	10	0%	1.1	20.1%	10.0%	10.1%	3.8%	5.19	4.73	-0.1
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	61	275	62	29	10	0%	1.1	22.5%	10.5%	12.0%	3.6%	5.19	4.63	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			42	0	56	243	53	19	8	0%	1.3	21.8%	7.8%	14.0%	3.3%	4.18	4.08	+0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	48	0	63	284	63	29	8	0%	1.3	18.1%	9.3%	8.8%	3.0%	5.40	4.37	—
YTD	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	48	0	63	284	63	29	8	0%	1.3	18.1%	9.3%	8.8%	3.0%	5.40	4.37	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	SD	45	0	58	261	57	27	7	0%	1.3	21.8%	10.3%	11.5%	2.7%	5.40	4.04	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	SD	3	0	5	23	6	2	1	0%	1.7	26.1%	8.7%	17.4%	4.3%	5.40	4.39	—
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	SD	3	0	5	23	6	2	1	0%	1.7	26.1%	8.7%	17.4%	4.3%	5.40	4.39	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	SD	6	0	6	27	4	3	1	0%	1.1	16.3%	9.9%	6.4%	3.3%	4.40	4.79	-0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	SD	6	0	6	25	4	2	1	0%	1.0	16.3%	9.9%	6.4%	3.3%	4.40	4.79	-0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	70	311	67	32	9	—	—	21.7%	10.2%	11.5%	2.9%	5.31	4.41	+0.2
FULL	28	MLB A+C	SD	—	—	11	48	67	32	9	—	—	141.1%	66.3%	74.8%	18.6%	32.72	9.79	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	SD	67	0	71	299	50	30	10	0%	1.1	16.9%	10.0%	6.9%	3.5%	5.00	5.22	-0.5
2028	30	MLB MLE	SD	63	0	67	281	47	29	10	0%	1.1	16.7%	10.2%	6.4%	3.6%	5.19	5.36	-0.6
2027	29	MLB CTX	SD	64	0	67	283	48	28	10	0%	1.0	16.9%	10.0%	6.9%	3.5%	5.00	5.22	-0.5
2028	30	MLB CTX	SD	60	0	63	266	44	27	10	0%	1.1	16.7%	10.2%	6.4%	3.6%	5.19	5.36	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	0	193	821	150	77	28	0%	1.1	18.2%	9.4%	8.8%	3.5%	4.80	4.65	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		179	0	200	851	156	80	29	0%	1.1	18.2%	9.4%	8.8%	3.5%	4.80	4.65	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		229	1	299	1301	287	113	40	0%	1.3	22.1%	8.7%	13.3%	3.0%	3.94	4.01	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	1	200	869	192	76	26	0%	1.3	22.1%	8.7%	13.3%	3.0%	3.94	4.01	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alek Jacob (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	16.1%	9.9%	3.3%	—	5.29	16.8%	6.7%	137	+0.10	—	—	—
Sam LeCure R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	31	SU	4.40	15.6%	8.8%	2.8%	.283	4.17	16.6%	10.1%	91	-0.23	4.17	171	73
Josh Lucas R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	28	SU	5.04	18.2%	10.6%	3.9%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	264	67
Vinny Nittoli R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	28	SU	4.18	19.0%	6.9%	3.3%	.302	3.86	26.9%	20.4%	93	-0.32	3.66	331	67
Dusten Knight R 2019 · 5.92 FIP	28	SU	5.92	17.3%	9.8%	5.5%	.314	4.59	23.8%	12.0%	94	-1.33	2.77	385	66
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	62
Trevor Cahill R 2016 · 4.22 FIP	28	SU	4.22	23.2%	11.8%	2.9%	.274	4.60	21.1%	11.2%	310	+0.38	3.37	556	62
Vance Worley R 2016 · 4.51 FIP	28	SU	4.51	15.3%	9.6%	2.7%	.278	4.85	12.2%	4.4%	133	+0.34	3.92	411	62
A.J. Schugel R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	28	SU	4.01	20.1%	8.1%	2.9%	.307	6.37	17.6%	10.6%	13	+2.36	2.80	299	62
Collin Balester R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	29	SU	4.22	14.2%	9.3%	2.1%	.240	3.20	21.2%	15.4%	43	-1.02	3.20	116	62
Yusmeiro Petit R 2015 · 4.11 FIP	30	SU	4.11	18.7%	4.1%	3.8%	.275	3.61	23.0%	19.0%	246	-0.50	2.56	517	61
Chasen Bradford R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.5%	5.6%	4.0%	.269	5.00	17.7%	11.9%	69	+0.38	2.99	322	61
Jake Lemoine R 2022 · 5.53 FIP	28	SU	5.53	14.8%	12.0%	3.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	290	61
Ryan Thompson R 2020 · 4.27 FIP	28	SU	4.27	20.2%	7.0%	3.6%	.316	3.06	23.0%	16.5%	129	-1.21	2.69	513	61
Danny Barnes R 2018 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	19.9%	11.0%	3.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	243	60
Tyler Cravy R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	28	SU	5.66	13.8%	10.4%	4.4%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	276	59
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	59
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	59
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	59
Justin De Fratus R 2016 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	14.4%	9.8%	2.1%	.277	4.76	12.5%	7.2%	373	+0.48	3.84	500	59
Norge Ruiz R 2022 · 4.48 FIP	28	SU	4.48	19.6%	8.5%	3.6%	.318	5.06	12.5%	4.5%	45	+0.58	3.75	367	59

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	16.5%	10.0%	1.34	5.00
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50