Alek Jacob
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
+0.0
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
AAA
ERA4.60
FIP4.73
xFIP5.21
SIERA3.04
K%22.1%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%12.0%
IP59
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL5050
CMD4545
K†3030
FB Velo
p1085.3
Whiff%
p2221.3%
K%
p1015.0%
xwOBA vs
p230.344
CH (44%)
FB (56%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 13 | 0 | 20 | 72 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 28.7% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.12 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 43 | 1 | 57 | 239 | 77 | 15 | 5 | 24.4% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 2.68 | 3.47 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 21 | 0 | 30 | 119 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 23.8% | 7.1% | 1.3% | 1.19 | 2.68 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 49 | 0 | 68 | 312 | 84 | 33 | 13 | 24.4% | 11.1% | 4.2% | 4.87 | 4.75 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 55 | 0 | 61 | 275 | 62 | 29 | 10 | 20.8% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 5.19 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 6 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SD | 22 | — | 22 | 91 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 14.1% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.81 | 5.39 | -0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | SD | — | — | 31 | 129 | 22 | 14 | 3 | 16.9% | 10.5% | 2.3% | 3.36 | 3.76 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SD | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 35 | 25 | 8 | 14.5% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 5.10 | 5.36 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SD | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 35 | 25 | 8 | 14.6% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 5.23 | 5.37 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | SD | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 33 | 24 | 8 | 14.5% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 5.32 | 5.42 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | SD | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 31 | 23 | 7 | 14.1% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 5.42 | 5.51 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | SD | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 28 | 22 | 7 | 13.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 5.55 | 5.64 | -0.4 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | SD | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 25 | 22 | 7 | 12.7% | 11.0% | 3.6% | 5.69 | 5.78 | -0.4 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | SD | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 22 | 21 | 7 | 12.0% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 5.83 | 5.93 | -0.5 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | SD | 41 | — | 41 | 175 | 20 | 20 | 7 | 11.2% | 11.4% | 3.8% | 5.99 | 6.09 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 187 | 1 | 245 | 1055 | 250 | 98 | 31 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 3.41 | 3.87 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 152 | 1 | 200 | 860 | 204 | 80 | 25 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 3.41 | 3.87 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alek Jacob (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.39 | 14.1% | 10.4% | 3.2% | — | 5.38 | 14.6% | 4.1% | 168 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Tim Lincecum R 2029 · 4.19 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.19 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .296 | 5.00 | 17.4% | 6.3% | 89 | +0.81 | 4.19 | 166 | 68 |
| Josh Lucas R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.06 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.40 | 264 | 65 |
| Dusten Knight R 2026 · 5.90 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.90 | 17.3% | 9.8% | 5.5% | .314 | 4.59 | 23.8% | 12.0% | 94 | -1.31 | 2.76 | 385 | 64 |
| Christian Bergman R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.86 | 15.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | .309 | 4.58 | 15.0% | 9.1% | 322 | -0.28 | 4.13 | 467 | 63 |
| Vinny Nittoli R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.20 | 19.0% | 6.9% | 3.3% | .302 | 3.84 | 26.9% | 20.4% | 93 | -0.36 | 3.68 | 331 | 63 |
| Henderson Alvarez R 2025 · 4.77 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.77 | 9.0% | 11.2% | 1.8% | .268 | 5.38 | 13.7% | 7.4% | 88 | +0.61 | 3.67 | 176 | 62 |
| A.J. Achter R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.43 | 15.0% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 174 | 61 |
| Jake Lemoine R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.51 | 14.8% | 12.0% | 3.9% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 290 | 60 |
| Kohei Arihara R 2026 · 6.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 6.03 | 13.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | .262 | 4.66 | 16.4% | 9.2% | 94 | -1.37 | 4.66 | 135 | 60 |
| Collin Balester R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.23 | 14.2% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .240 | 3.20 | 21.2% | 15.4% | 43 | -1.03 | 3.20 | 116 | 60 |
| Chris Mazza R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.93 | 16.2% | 6.9% | 4.2% | .239 | 3.41 | 19.7% | 12.3% | 210 | -1.52 | 3.30 | 563 | 59 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.29 | 14.4% | 9.8% | 2.1% | .277 | 4.76 | 12.5% | 7.2% | 373 | +0.47 | 3.80 | 500 | 59 |
| Tyler Pill R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.42 | 13.9% | 7.2% | 2.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 460 | 59 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 58 |
| Jose Casilla R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.65 | 13.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 104 | 58 |
| Jerad Eickhoff R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.27 | 10.9% | 10.4% | 1.4% | .258 | 5.72 | 19.6% | 12.2% | 175 | +1.45 | 3.67 | 875 | 58 |
| Tyler Cravy R 2026 · 5.67 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.67 | 13.8% | 10.4% | 4.4% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 276 | 58 |
| Eder Llamas R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.85 | 12.3% | 8.8% | 3.1% | .261 | 3.65 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 120 | -1.20 | 3.23 | 171 | 58 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 58 |
| Danny Barnes R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.48 | 19.9% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.73 | 243 | 58 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.