Rhett Kouba

P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX2 levels	28	24	128	3.45	3.26	25.3%	6.9%	—	K 20.6% · BB 7.0% · FIP 3.61
2024	24	MIX2 levels	14	13	49	6.43	5.22	17.4%	15.3%	—	K 12.7% · BB 14.2% · FIP 5.47
2025	25	AAAHOU	38	4	80	5.06	4.85	14.4%	13.0%	—	K 12.4% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.95
2027PROJ	27	MLBHOU	11	11	70	5.89	5.89	11.3%	14.0%	-0.7
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBHOU	5	5	29	5.78	5.81	12.4%	13.7%	-0.3
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBHOU	6	6	38	5.77	5.83	13.0%	13.6%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command30

CompsLuis Niebla (age 26) · Dennis O'Grady (age 26) · Chris Jensen (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.89

FIP5.89

K%11.3%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%-2.7%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	3	18	73	20	2	2	50%	3.1	18.5%	2.3%	16.2%	2.1%	2.45	2.99	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	3	18	73	20	2	2	50%	3.1	27.4%	2.7%	24.7%	2.7%	2.45	2.66	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	71	305	85	27	9	56%	3.9	21.3%	10.2%	11.0%	3.8%	4.08	4.70	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	10	71	305	85	27	9	56%	3.9	27.9%	8.9%	19.0%	3.0%	4.08	3.50	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	128	538	136	37	14	86%	4.6	20.6%	7.0%	13.6%	2.5%	3.45	3.61	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	24	128	538	136	37	14	86%	4.6	25.3%	6.9%	18.4%	2.6%	3.45	3.26	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	49	236	41	36	6	93%	3.5	12.7%	14.2%	-1.5%	3.0%	6.43	5.47	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	49	236	41	36	6	93%	3.5	12.7%	14.2%	-1.5%	3.0%	6.43	5.47	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	49	236	41	36	6	93%	3.5	17.4%	15.3%	2.1%	2.5%	6.43	5.22	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	38	4	80	354	51	46	8	11%	2.1	12.4%	11.7%	0.7%	2.6%	5.06	4.95	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	38	4	80	354	51	46	8	11%	2.1	12.4%	11.7%	0.7%	2.6%	5.06	4.95	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	38	4	80	354	51	46	8	11%	2.1	14.4%	13.0%	1.4%	2.3%	5.06	4.85	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	HOU	11	11	70	296	33	41	9	100%	6.4	11.3%	14.0%	-2.7%	2.9%	5.89	5.89	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	68	287	36	39	9	100%	6.2	12.4%	13.7%	-1.3%	3.0%	5.78	5.81	-0.7
2029	29	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	65	274	36	37	9	100%	6.5	13.0%	13.6%	-0.6%	3.2%	5.77	5.83	-0.7
2028	28	MLB CTX	HOU	5	5	29	122	15	17	4	100%	5.8	12.4%	13.7%	-1.3%	3.0%	5.78	5.81	-0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	38	160	21	22	5	100%	6.3	13.0%	13.6%	-0.6%	3.2%	5.77	5.83	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	10	67	283	36	39	9	100%	6.7	12.7%	13.6%	-0.9%	3.1%	5.77	5.44	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	107	116	27	100%	6.4	12.7%	13.6%	-0.9%	3.1%	5.77	5.44	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		104	54	346	1506	263	146	43	52%	3.3	17.5%	9.7%	7.8%	2.8%	4.32	4.41	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	31	200	871	152	84	25	52%	3.3	17.5%	9.7%	7.8%	2.8%	4.32	4.41	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rhett Kouba (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.89	11.3%	14.0%	2.9%	—	5.82	12.7%	-0.9%	133	-0.07	—	—	—
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	80
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	80
Chris Jensen R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	27	SW	5.31	12.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	488	77
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	77
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	76
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	75
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	345	75
Mike McCarthy R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	27	SP-	4.78	9.4%	9.1%	2.4%	.280	5.03	6.2%	-3.5%	37	+0.25	4.78	153	75
Noah Skirrow R 2024 · 4.77 FIP	26	SP-	4.77	11.7%	11.7%	2.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	371	74
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	73
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	73
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	72
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	72
Adam Panayotovich R 2017 · 5.45 FIP	25	SP-	5.45	9.6%	9.0%	3.7%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	121	71
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	71
Jim Brower R 2000 · 5.54 FIP	27	SP-	5.54	10.9%	10.2%	3.8%	.314	4.22	16.4%	7.2%	310	-1.32	3.67	571	71
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	71
Drake Fellows R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	26	SP-	4.97	16.1%	12.7%	2.9%	.293	4.85	14.2%	6.3%	207	-0.12	4.28	282	70
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	70
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	12.2%	13.7%	1.17	5.81
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*
Russ Swan ('89-'94, -2 WAR*)	1.3	89	12.3%*	9.9%*	1.13*	5.09*
Jim Winn ('83-'88, -1 WAR*)	1.5	77	15.1%*	11.0%*	1.09*	4.96*